Sunday 30 June 2024
"Semiconductor production by location" - X was Twitter.
Friday 28 June 2024
Toyota to unveil first ‘full’ self driving EV next year as it chases Tesla - Electrek. Waymo is apparently the reference for self-driving cars.
Latest Windows update causes reboot loop — what to do if you’re stuck - PCWorld. Every Windows operating system has been worse than the one before. Microsoft issues "new" software to generate a continuous income stream.
The higher copper price (red) the last two decades has contributed to a higher per capita gross domestic product in Chile (blue).
Thursday 27 June 2024
NASA gives SpaceX the privilege of crashing the ISS into the sea - Engadget. "The company is being paid $843 million to a build a rocket to "deorbit" the space station."
"JUST IN: Elon Musk's SpaceX is now the most valuable private company in the United States after being valued at a Record $210 Billion" - X was Twitter. Offering a cheaper service by reusing rockets.
Mind the gap: Europe’s strategic investment needs and how to support them - ECB. Government spending and debt must be drastically reduced, but they want to spend another €5.4 trillion over 2025-2031 to charge windmills like Don Quixote.
The interest rate on Japan government bonds (blue) is insignificant compared to the annual change in the exchange rate (red). It would not make sense for foreigner investors to hold Japanese debt, except when the Yen strenghtens (red above zero).
Japan's reserves of $1.2 trillion does not appear to do much to reduce the volatility of the Yen.
Wednesday 26 June 2024
"JUST IN: Amazon, $AMZN, to launch Temu-like discount section with direct shipping from China, per the Information." - X was Twitter. If Amazon adds commission it will be more expensive.
"SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son believes AI is likely to be 1x to 10x smarter than humans over the next 3 to 5 years, and 10,000x smarter than humans in 10 years." - X was Twitter.
'Inflation coming in hotter than expected today is a disaster. Of the @ABSStats press release,this one line jumps out: "Excluding the Energy Bill Relief Fund rebates, Electricity prices would have increased 14.5% in the 12 months to May 2024." ' - X was Twitter.
Australia's money supply (blue) grew by 7.1% per year over the last 3.5 years, which is the nominal inflation rate, excluding real economic growth. Real economic growth is visible in the lifestyle and infrastructure, of which there is little. If money supply growth equals inflation, then the economy declined. Nominal economic output (red) grew at the same rate as money supply (blue) for the last 9 years, which means money circulated through the economy at the same rate, and probably means no change in the economy.
Australia house prices (blue) grew less than the money supply per person (red), and more than the economic output per person (green). The average person's standard of living has declined relative to house prices.
Tuesday 25 June 2024
"BREAKING: Brazil’s Supreme Court has voted to decriminalize the possession of marijuana for personal use" - X was Twitter.
When US federal debt held by foreigners as percentage of all government debt (blue) decline, the US dollar (red) strengthens. Foreign bond holders selling dollars does not weaken the dollar. Are foreigner investors that astute that they withdraw money when the dollar is expensive?
Monday 24 June 2024
UK government debt to GDP since 1700: 300 years of UK public finance data - OBR. Taxes rose permanently after World Wide II. It suppresses economic growth, leading to lower interest rates, asset appreciation for the wealthy, social security for the poor, and higher government spending.
"Higher inflation can lead to greater efficiency. It all has to do with the price dispersion that inflation generates, which might motivate some consumers to search for the lowest prices, increasing competition among sellers." - X was Twitter. If there is any increase in effiency, it is because wages do not keep up with inflation. Workers produce the same for less money.
Sunday 23 June 2024
"The government is TOO BIG. It's TOO INTRUSIVE. It RESTRICTS what we can do. It's becoming our MASTER instead of our SERVANT. We've got to react against it and cut it down to size." - X was Twitter.
Saturday 22 June 2024
"Taylor Swift fan furious after being sold £700 VIP ticket with 'obstructed view' at first London gig of Eras Tour at Wembley Stadium" - X was Twitter. The fans are already masochists for watching a 3 hour concert.
"Avocados spiking to highest prices in 2 years!" - X was Twitter.
Friday 21 June 2024
"Chinese customs data suggest the country is running a trade surplus that’s much bigger than the one reported in its balance of payments, and Beijing should clarify why the numbers are different, the US Treasury said" - X was Twitter.
"China’s electric vehicle industry received at least $231 billion in government subsidies and aid from 2009 through to the end of last year, according to a new research." - X was Twitter.
Thursday 20 June 2024
"CHART OF THE DAY: The annual @EnergyInstitute 'Statistical Review of World Energy' is out. Among other things, it shows that global coal consumption hit an all-time high in 2023, boosted by China and India." - X was Twitter.
Eli Lilly (ELI) has a P/E ratio of 131. The share price has shot up, whilst profits have been flat for years: Macrotrends.
McDonald’s releases a new $5 value meal to combat inflation - CNN
..... from 29 May: McDonald’s exec says average menu item costs 40% more than in 2019 - CNBC. That is inflation of 7.0% per year, compared with total debt (money) growth of 6.5% per year.
..... from 3 Apr: McDonald’s menu prices have increased by over 100% during the last decade: study - NY Post. "The iconic Big Mac, a staple of McDonald’s menus, has seen its average price rise by 50% in the last 10 years — from $3.99 in 2014 to $5.99 today."
Wednesday 19 June 2024
Nvidia (NVDA) is up 3.1x in one year, and 36x over 5 years. Cisco (CISCO) reached a peak in Mar 2000, up 3.0x in year, and 39x over 5 years. That is very similar. Cisco fell -77% a year later. A lot of technology stocks shot up in 2000.
Tuesday 18 June 2024
Congress passes sweeping pro-nuclear energy bill - Engadget "The past decade has seen over a dozen reactor closures and only two new ones open".
The 2022 American Home Size Index - American Home Shield. "... the average size of a new single-family home ballooned - from just 909 square feet in 1949 to 2,480 square feet in 2021". The new private-owned housing units started have declined from 2.6% of households in Jan 1959 to 0.79% in Mar 2024 (below). So houses are bigger, but fewer are being build, mainly for the wealthy.
Some sources base the average house size on for sale listings. Most of the houses on the market at any given time would the larger, more expensive houses which sell slowly. The statistics would be skewed towards larger houses.
Since 2011 the annual new private-owned housing units started (blue) is smaller than the annual increase in the number of households (red), which suggests that some households can't afford the large houses.
The number of US households (blue) has growth faster than the population (red), due to fewer children per household. Total housing units (green) is more than the number of households (blue). Wealthier households have more than one house.
Monday 17 June 2024
Tesla sues former supplier for ‘stealing battery trade secrets’, but they claim the contrary - Electrek.
Possible Fake Titanium in Boeing and Airbus Built Planes from 2019-2023 - Nextbigfuture.
Where does the EU’s gas come from? - European Council. "The share of Russia’s pipeline gas in EU imports dropped from over 40% in 2021 to about 8% in 2023. For pipeline gas and LNG combined, Russia accounted for less than 15% of total EU gas imports."
European natural gas imports - Bruegel:
....European natural gas imports in week 23 (3 to 9 June) by source: LNG (liquefied natural gas) 1723 million cubic metres, Russia 397Mm3 (7.1%), Norway 1853 Mm3, Algeria 640Mm3, UK 263Mm3, total 5595Mm3.
....The monthly LNG imports by region in May: America 4347Mm3, Russia 1922Mm3 (19.5%), Africa 1480Mm3, Middle East 1266 Mm3, other 818Mm3, total 9833Mm3. Thus Russia supplied 7.1% gas in week 23 + 19.5% of LNG in May x 30.8% LNG share of imports = about 13.1% of gas imports.
The renaming of Twitter to X has made the website unsearchable in search engines.
TDK successfully developed a material for solid-state batteries with 100-times higher energy density - TDK. The energy density is 1000watt-hours per liter compared to 300 to 700 Wh/l for lithium-ion batteries.
Greece heatwave: Warning for tourists after four dead and more missing in record temperatures - Independent. July and Augustus is usually warmer - Climate.top.
Sunday 16 June 2024
28 People Trapped Upside Down on Amusement Park Ride AtmosFEAR Rescued by Fire Department in Oregon - People.
Saturday 15 June 2024
"Wise words from a recent interview with @geoffreyhinton, one of the smartest people in the world regarding AI" - X was Twitter. You don't even need high intelligence to threaten mankind. All you need is badly written software that is able to control powerful weapons, like in Wargames (1983). The best part of Wargames is the general public being allowed to tour a nuclear weapon facility.
Friday 14 June 2024
Total stock market return is growth plus dividends. If growth does not beat inflation, dividends should be reinvested. Shares that are bought to reinvest dividends means other shareholders have to sell. The market as a whole does not benefit. The same applies to share buybacks by the company. The market cap should remain the same. Revenue growth needs to beat inflation for the whole market to have real growth. Total revenue can't outgrow the economy. Growth is mostly just inflation.
S&P 500 Q1 revenue grew at 4.2% compared to nominal economic growth of 5.4%, and earnings at 5.9% (Factset). S&P 500 earnings yield (earnings/share price) is 3.5% (Multpl). Individual investors can get up to 7.8% return, if all profits are returned to shareholders, and profit margins stay constant.
The Buffett Indicator: Market Cap to GDP - Longtermtrends. At 189% it is reaching for a double top.
Thursday 13 June 2024
US personal consumption expenditure on motor vehicles and parts (red) has grown much more than new autos (blue). Money spent on new autos flattened out from 1985 to 2009, and then declined. Auto is short for automobile, which typically means a passenger car. The reason for big difference between the two charts is not clear.
US personal consumption expenditure on recreational goods and vehicles (blue) has increased like motor vehicles and parts (red). Is it for recreation, or are more people living in RVs?
Despite all the news about new US car factories and import restrictions, domestic auto production (blue) has declined. The number of light vehicle sold (red) has changed little over 46 years.
The US average house price (red) is now 2.60x higher than the official consumer price inflation (CPI blue), compared to 1963.
The average house price (blue) matches gross domestic product per person (green). People spend the maximum they can afford on a house. Real economic growth or the increase in the standard of living is not clear from house prices.
Cars are just over 10x more expensive than in 1963, which corresponds to CPI (blue), but people are spending less on cars, so its weight in the basket is lower. Electric cars are more expensive, by at least 50% more than CPI, or closer to 2x CPI for a Tesla. The official inflation rate for new vehicles (red) is ridiculous.
Wednesday 12 June 2024
US total debt (blue) grew at 3.95% in Q1, which determines the nominal inflation rate. The gross domestic growth (red) of 5.38% gives the impression of real economic growth.
Real economic growth declined by -0.75% per year since Q4 2019 (if inflation = money growth):
Since 1980 real economic growth declined -1.8% per year. Lower interest rates, asset appreciation without production, and money printing caused a -54% economic decline over 44 years.
Average hourly earnings (blue) only declined -35% relative to the average house price (red). It is a bargain.
Average hourly earnings (blue) declined -42% relative to medical care inflation (red).
Tuesday 11 June 2024
Tesla Optimus Bots Have Started Working Autonomously in the Factory - NextBigFuture.
"Earth just experienced its fastest carbon dioxide surge ever recorded. Scientists from NOAA and Scripps Institution of Oceanography said that carbon dioxide is accumulating in the atmosphere to levels far above any ever experienced." - X was Twitter. It is to be expected. Carbon dioxide levels increase with temperature. The reasons for the temperature increase is being ignored.
The media like to mention the big increase in electric vehicles (EV) sales. Sales growth is slowing down. The UK for example had 1.767M EVs in May (Zapmap), out of 41.2M registered vehicles in Dec 2023. That is 4.3%. May sales was +13% higher than a year ago. At the present 2024 rate, EV sales would grow at +30% this year. Last year it was +41%, and the year before +49%. Projecting world sales into the future suggests an EV peak at about 14% of all vehicles in 7 years.
The US (red) has created more money than the Euro zone (blue), and should weaken against the Euro, except if the US has higher economic growth, or more likely, the Euro zone economy shrinks faster than the US. Switzerland (green) created much less money, but has levelled off the last few years.
The US dollar has weaken a lot against the Swiss Franc, from $0.232/₣ in Feb 1971 to $1.107/₣ in May 2024.
Monday 10 June 2024
"U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren asks Fed Chair Jerome Powell to CUT rates" - X was Twitter. A majority of the members of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System are nominated by the President and confirmed by the Senate. The letter interferes with the supposed independence of the FOMC.
US Oil Output to Fall Next Year Unless Rig Counts Rise, Key Energy Investor Says - Bloomberg.
"Everything you see in brown is where the right-wing party led by Marine Le Pen won in France" - X was Twitter. When the immigrant population becomes big enough, they swing elections towards more immigration.
EU elections: The rightward shift of the European parliament - Reddit. "Identity and Democracy (French: Identité et démocratie, ID) is a political group of the European Parliament, launched on 13 June 2019 for the Ninth European Parliament term. It is composed of nationalist, right-wing populist and eurosceptic national parties from ten European states." (Wikipedia).
"President Emmanuel Macron dissolved France’s lower house of parliament and called new legislative elections after his group was drubbed in a European vote on Sunday" - X was Twitter.
From 22 Feb 2019: Visualizing 150 Years of U.S. Employment History - Visual Capitalist. Artificial intelligence can take over a lot of the modern jobs, then people can go back to farming, like in Green Acres.
US and other countries lower interest rates in an effort to keep unemployment (red right scale) down. In the process the total net worth of the wealthiest 10% (green left scale) has increased 64% more than total wages (blue left scale):
The annual increase in the total net worth of the wealthiest 10% without production (green), compared to the annual total wages paid (blue):
Friday 7 June 2024
"The Bureau of Labor Statistics is reducing the sample size of the household survey in the monthly jobs report due to budget constraints" - X was Twitter.
"Isn’t it strange that some people talk about hard working Germans and lazy Greeks and Italians?" - X was Twitter.
"If you want a detailed explanation of why I switched Starship from carbon fiber to stainless steel" - X was Twitter.
Gross domestic product per capita of Germany (blue), France (green), Italy (purple) and Greece (red):
Thursday 6 June 2024
NASA’s Boeing Crew Flight Test Rendezvous and Docking - NASA, Youtube.
"Starship stacked for Flight 4". "Streaming live exclusively on this platform!" - Elon Musk, X was Twitter. At 7am central US time, which is 2pm in Europe.
Nvidia (NVDA) reached a market cap of $3 trillion, at a price/earnings of $1224.40/~4x$6.12 ~ 50, price/sales of $1224.40/~4x$10.46 ~ 29, and net profit margin of 59%.
Canada's 10 year goverment bond yield (red) has been far below money supply growth (blue) since 2000, which determines the nominal inflation rate.
...."They did so in the face of persistent shelter inflation. In Canada in March, shelter prices increased by 6.5% year-over-year, with rent increasing by 8.5% " - X was Twitter.
Low interest rates in Canada (red) have created a magnificent 33x rise in property prices since 1970 (blue). In Toronto the average house price is 39x higher.
Wednesday 5 June 2024
Watch Live! Boeing Starliner's first astronaut launch to the International Space Station - NASA.
Three out of four Americans under 40 favour Chinese EVs - Global Fleet. "An average EV costs around $56,000 in the US, while Chinese EVs are becoming ultra-cheap, as the $10,000 BYD Seagull is expected to enter the European market in 2025. In Europe, Volkswagen is already working on €20,000 ($21,617) EV for 2027."
....In May Ford sold 8966 EVs in US of which Mustang Mach-E 4255, Ford-F 150 lighting 3260, E-Transit 1450 (Ford’s electric vehicle sales continue surging in May despite shifting EV plans - Electrek). Imported vehicles do not compete with these models.
....Kia sold 7197 EVs in May (Kia U.S. EV Sales Doubled To Spectacular New Record In May 2024 - InsideEVs). A Kia EV6 starts at $42,600. It is made in South Korea. They are building a factory in US. The cheapest EV, the Chevrolet Bolt EV at $27,500, is assembled in the US, with parts from South Korea. Nissan and Hyundai are also made in the US.
....Volvo’s first all-electric EX90 rolls off the production line in South Carolina - Electrek.
US electricity prices (blue) are cheap relative to average wage (red), whilst water, sewerage and trash (green) is more expensive. Natural gas is an extremely cheap source of power.
Tuesday 4 June 2024
Does Increasing The Money Supply Also Increase Economic Growth? - TalkMarkets.
According to the web, the US has 2175 billion barrels of potentially recoverable shale oil (Wikipedia). US oil demand is 7.3 billion per year. Thus there is enough shale oil for 300 years, but the cost goes up.
.... US shale oil production to surge 67% by 2030 - AA: "The U.S.' shale supply will peak at approximately 14.5 million barrels per day (mbpd) around 2030, the report said, assuming a base-case price scenario where American benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) would average from $54 to $57 per barrel between 2019 and 2022".
US restaurant sales (blue) have increased relative to personal consumption expenditures (PCE - red). Restaurant sales is only 5.4% of PCE.
Monday 3 June 2024
'Nobel laureate Paul Krugman says China is “bizarrely unwilling” to use more government spending to boost consumer demand, instead continues to produce/export “We seem to have a complete lack of realism on the part of the Chinese that is a threat to us all” ' - X was Twitter. China must be correct then.
The annual increase in US total net worth (red) comes close to the difference between personal consumption expenditures and compensation of employees (blue). Total net worth is equal to the value of the stock market, housing and government bonds. The increase in asset values do not involve production, and is therefore inflationary.
Growth in total net worth does include an increase in the number of houses due population growth, amongst others. Total household net worth divided by the number of households grew at 6.9% in Q4. A drop in net worth is typically recessionary (grey bands).
Sunday 2 June 2024
"Central Bank Public Debt Holdings" - Twitter.
"The Netherlands: Huge wind turbine topples to the ground as a result of... the wind." - Twitter.
Saturday 1 June 2024
Catering to the ultra-rich is a booming business in Australia - Moneyweb.
"The lineup of 6 planets continues tomorrow morning, when the lit portion of the waning crescent moon will point to reddish Mars. And, Mercury and Jupiter will soon be in conjunction." - Twitter.
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