Tuesday 30 Apr 2024
"There is no such thing as the stock market. There is tech and the beaten rest. BTW, Kodak and IBM used to be in top ten S&P 500 companies at some point. Nothing lasts forever." - Twitter.
FRED will remove the Wilshire 5000 Price Index (WILL5000PR) on 3 June 2024. Are they trying to remove evidence of bubbles? The Share Prices for United States x 170 (blue) does not match the rise in the Wilshire 5000 index (red).
The S&P 500 index adjusted for market cap (green) compared to the Wilshire 5000 index (red):
Monday 29 Apr 2024
"Cocoa futures slump as rains in West Africa boost mid-crop prospects" - Twitter.
Most Investments are Actually Bad. Here’s Why - Lyn Alden.
US total debt to gross domestic product stayed with personal consumption expenditure (blue) until 1980 (green), and after 2010 (red). Between 1980 and 2010 interest rates declined, and debt increased at a higher rate than production and consumption.
"Poland is planning to cut the maximum electricity tariff that utilities can levy by 19% in order to help shield households from the full impact of price increases" - Twitter. Below is Poland's inflation rate for electricity, gas and other fuels (blue) compared to money supply (red). Poland is another basket case.
Friday 26 Apr 2024
"Tesla Autopilot linked to 13 deaths, hundreds of crashes in new investigation" - Twitter. It is not good enough for autonomous cars to be safer than humans. Flawless driving will be demanded.
Aluminum production by country - Harbor Aluminium. China is by far the biggest aluminium producer. The aluminium price has been kept down for decades, either by greater efficiency or subsidies.
Thursday 25 Apr 2024
From 12 Oct 2021: The Largest Copper Mines in the World by Capacity - Visual Capitalist.
Most of the copper deposists are around the Pacific ocean, from 12 Jul 2016: Global Copper Map.
There is "gold" rush going on for copper. The copper price (orange) rose 3.6% per year since 1990. Gold rose 5.5% per year over the same period. Aluminium (grey) is only up 1.1% per year. Its electrical conductivity for the same volume is -35% lower than copper, but it weighs -70% less. Weight is important for electric vehicles.
The price of copper per volume (orange) is similar to that of aluminium (grey). Aluminium deposits are enough for some 500 years.
Wednesday 24 Apr 2024
"US President #Biden proposes a top capital gains #tax rate of 44.6% for the 2025 budget. That is more than double the highest rate for 2024, which is 20%, and means an effective rate of over 50% in some states." - Twitter.
Tuesday 23 Apr 2024
Mercedes-Benz beats Tesla to selling Level 3 autonomous cars in the U.S. - Mashable.
Do Europeans have a gas problem? Monthly gas market report - GECF: EU + UK gas consumption for the year (11 months) to Nov 2023 was 339.35 bcm (billion cubic metres), whilst production was 61.01 bcm, PNG imports 161.02 bcm, LNG 130.43 bcm. Europe has to import most of its gas. US consumption was 822 bcm for the 11 months to November.
.... Gas Proved Reserves - Our World in Data: Norway has 1430 bcm reserves, which is only 3.9 years of Europe's demand. The US has 17,700 bcm proven reserves, equivalent to 20 years of US demand, or 84,200 bcm unproven reserves, enough for 94 years (EIA). The other big reserves are in Russia and Iran.
Monday 22 Apr 2024
"Oil and gas are here to stay. Coal will be replaced by renewables and nuclear. Plan accordingly." - Twitter. Whenever it looks like coal demand might decline, charts pop up, but demand continues upward:
.... World total coal production, 1971-2020 - IEA.
.... Global coal production, 2000-2025 - IEA.
Friday 19 Apr 2024
US "All Sectors; Debt Securities and Loans; Liability, Level" (red) is almost twice the "Amount Outstanding of Total Debt Securities for All Issuers, All Maturities, Residence of Issuer in United States" (blue).
The lesser version of US Total Debt Securities for All Issuers per person (blue) compared to that for Canada (red).
Thursday 18 Apr 2024
"Apple CEO: Company is studying manufacturing in Indonesia" - Twitter. Former country of headhunters, a term now used by employment recruiters - Wikipedia: "This article is about the practice of taking heads from humans after killing them. For recruiting in organizations, see Executive search". "The Moluccans, an ethnic group of mixed Austronesian-Papuan origin living in the Moluccas, were fierce headhunters until the Dutch colonial rule in Indonesia suppressed the practice".
The cost of the average US house divided over 30 years works out to 31% of the average wage (blue). Initially it is about a third of that, as the house is mostly paid for later in the loan term. In the beginning interest makes up 87% of the loan repayments. The interest cost on a 100% loan is now 68% of the average wage (red). The income of two people is required. In the 1980s people had to save up before they could buy a house.
If there is no population growth, homes can be passed on from generation to generation, and the next generation live in a house for free. However, people make poor financial decisions, or they could choose to spend the equity in their house during retirement.
The big advantage of buying a house with a loan is that the loan loses value with inflation. Relative to total debt the initial loan amount is worth 17.3% after 30 years (below). Government is on your side. They love borrowers and hate savers. Savers are offered low interest and taxed.
Wednesday 17 Apr 2024
US economic output per person (red) has shot up compared to Germany (blue) both in US dollars. The recent US increase is probably due to money creation, and the exchange rate has not adjusted yet.
The "Amount Outstanding of Total Debt Securities for All Issuers, All Maturities, Residence of Issuer in United States" (blue) compared to Germany (red) both in US dollars. The US pays higher wages, but they have borrowed a lot more money. If the US debt went into the creation of businesses and infrastructure it would have a good outcome, but most of the debt is for government spending and housing which does not contribute to future income. Thus, the dollar is likely to weaken in the coming decades as more money is printed to lower the debt.
Monday 15 Apr 2024
This here chart compares US household net worth (red) with total US debt (blue). Compared to the balance sheet of a company, the difference would be the equity held by the public, the value of assets without debt. In 2009 the equity value came close to zero. It could also indicate the overvaluation of assets, like a house valued higher than the cost of construction, and the size of the stock market bubble.
Friday 12 Apr 2024
"New Zealand consumer spending was sluggish in the first three months of the year, indicating the economy remains weak" - Twitter.
New Zealand's economic output has fallen from 2.3x of the money in circulation in 1987, to 1.0x in 2023 (GDP to M3):
Thursday 11 Apr 2024
From a week ago: Beverly Hills is Dying, lots of Stores are out of Business. - Youtube.
"Senator Brown calls for banning Chinese electric vehicles" - Twitter. Presumably Brown has got a lovely daughter, as per Herman's Hermits.
.... "China is exporting so many EVs that it needs more ships – a lot more" - Twitter.
Researchers develop method to extract useful proteins from beer-brewing leftovers - Phys. Marmite is made from a concentrated yeast extract, a by-product of beer brewing, and contains 34% protein. Utilization of brewery wastes in food industry - NIH: "During beer production, three main types of by-products are generated, i.e. brewer’s spent grain, spent hops/hot trub, and residual brewer’s yeast". What Is Marmite? - Food Network: "Marmite was invented in the late 19th century by Justus von Liebig, a German scientist who discovered that leftover brewers' yeast could be concentrated and consumed. In 1902, the Marmite Food Company was founded in England and launched the production and packaging of marmite."
Wednesday 10 Apr 2024
Why is US total debt (money supply) growing so much faster than the official inflation rate? It is obvious from all countries that politicians report an inflation rate below economic growth (GDP), because reporting real economic decline could cause them to lose votes. Secondly, the inflation rate does not measure the purchases of the wealthiest 10% who owns the extra money:
.....From 16 Feb 2024: US Luxury Real Estate Prices Reach Record High - Benoit Properties: "According to recent data from a Redfin Luxury Home Sales Report, the typical US luxury home sold for a staggering $1.17 million in the fourth quarter, reflecting an 8.8% surge from the previous year. In comparison, the growth rate of non-luxury homes increased at half the pace, reaching a record $340,000."
From 1 Mar 2024: The fall of Atos: What went wrong? And What happens next? - TechMonitor. The share price of the IT (Information Technology) company reached peaks of €143 in 2000 and €100 in 2017, and has now fallen to €2.00.
Monday 8 Apr 2024
"In an unprecedented ruling, an international court says Switzerland is committing human rights violations by failing to tackle the climate crisis" - Twitter. Fight amongst yourselves, whilst the third world takes over the world economy and the "pollution".
Zendaya On Wearing That Viral Robot Suit: ‘Why Did I Do This?’ - HuffPost.
Strange Eclipse Behavior - The Late Show with Stephen Colbert, Youtube.
Friday 5 Apr 2024
Cybertruck Teething Issues Have Tesla Owners Calling Tow Trucks - InsideEVs.
A rise in US nonfarm payrolls always ends in a recession:
Thursday 4 Apr 2024
Japans Lost Decades: Is U.S. On The Same Path? - See It Market.
"Graphic from @VisualCap of top 10 U.S. companies by revenue, in both 1994 and 2023; figures for 1994 sourced from @StoryofBusiness, while 2023 figures come from latest @FortuneMagazine 500 ranking" - Twitter. US car manufacturers have dropped out. Consumers buy cheap stuff from Walmart and Amazon, whilst using expensive Apple iphones, and socializing on Facebook. The Obama Affordable Care Act has added administrative costs, thus United Health and CVS Health. ExxonMobil and Chevron could be impacted when the US runs out of oil.
Engineers Complete the Largest Astronomical Camera Ever Constructed - Extremetech.
"Abbie Chatfield is all smiles as she promotes her vibrator line in Sydney's CBD" - Twitter. Fair dinkum sheila.
The tax collections of California state (blue) is much higher than Texas (red). California's population is 39.0M and Texas 30.5M, the two biggest US states.
Per capita personal income is higher in California (blue) than Texas (red).
The rental vacancy rate is lower in California (blue) than Texas (red).
Wednesday 3 Apr 2024
Tesla Is Once Again the World’s Best-Selling EV Company - Visual Capitalist.
The US delinquency rate on all loans (blue), and on credit card loans (red) have picked up, but are still low.
Wednesday 3 Apr 2024
Leaked images tease BYD’s first electric pickup, coming to global markets this year - Electrek.
Tuesday 2 Apr 2024
Tesla misses sales estimates in first drop since 2020, shares decline 5.5% - Business Standard.
What everybody wants to know is: How does the massive debt in the US, Europe and Japan end? There are two parties involved, the savers and the borrowers. More debt also means more savings. The problem is when government prints money to pay off debt, like QE (Quantitive Easing). What are the debt limits?
If US workers spend 1/3 of their wages to pay back total debt, the number of years required is shown below. This is only the capital, not the interest. Up to 1980 it was around 12 years. Since 2007 it has been between 35 and 40 years. It has stopped increasing, but is also not being reduced.
The hours of work per year required to pay the interest on US total debt at the 10 year government bond rate is shown below. This is only the interest, not the capital repayments. Workers pay the interest on their mortgages, and government debt through taxes. They also pay the interest on business debt, since it is included in the price of the products they buy. Mortgage debt offers the benefit of a house the borrower can enjoy, but the interest payments on government debt is a waste of money.
The average working hours per year is about 1800. Today a worker spends 946 hours per year to pay the interest, which is more than half the year. If they spend another 1/3 of the time on repaying the capital, their living expenses must come from the remaining 254 hours. Interest payments were worse in the 1980s, but total debt was less. In 1960 it was 290 hours.
Monday 1 Apr 2024
Canada punishes people for supplying carbon-dioxide to plants: Carbon pricing 101: What today's increase could mean for you - CTV News. "... the carbon price on a litre of gasoline will now be 17.6 cents per litre ...". The gasoline price is aboot 157c.
EU pumps four times more money into farming animals than growing plants - The Guardian.
"New York, Illinois, And California lawmakers propose higher taxes, while red state counterparts pursue tax cuts" - Twitter. When the number of government beneficiaries exceed the taxpayers, socialism becomes entrenched. It is not difficult to achieve with a small percentage of rich, and large percentage of poor.
Absolute growth in the stock market is irrelevant. It must be compared with inflation. From 1951 to 1980 US corporate profits (blue) stayed with total debt divided by 23 (red). Total debt represents the nominal inflation rate. After 1980 profits declined. Since then the profits followed total debt divided by 36 (green).
In Q4 profits after tax were +8.6% higher than a year ago, and +4.9% per year over 10 years. Total debt grew +4.4% over the last year, and +5.2% per year over 10 years. Profits are keeping up with nominal inflation.
"$SPX is expected to report Y/Y revenue growth of 3.5% for Q1 2024, which is below the estimate of 4.4% revenue growth on December 31." - Twitter.
The estimated earnings growth for Q1 is 3.6% - Factset.
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