Tuesday 28 Feb 2023
Analysis: Lithium price slide deepens as China battery giant bets on cheaper inputs - Reuters.
Saturday 26 Feb 2023
Jim Bovard: TSA Still Molesting At Warp Speed - Zero Hedge. More regulation and less freedom, but the public still vote the same politicians into government.
Saturday 25 Feb 2023
"YARDENI RESEARCH (February 25, 2023). We've been writing that the US economy has been in a recession since early last year. To be more exact, we've been saying that the US economy is in a "rolling recession," hitting different indu…" - Twitter.
‘A tsunami effect’: ETF fund manager bets on the robot boom - CNBC.
China Launching 12992 Satellites to Suppress SpaceX Starlink Will Backfire - Nextbigfuture.
Cool vendeing machines in Thailand! - Youtube.
Friday 24 Feb 2023
From 3 weeks ago: Has Windows become Spyware? - Youtube.
Wednesday 22 Feb 2023
Retail is Broken - Twitter.
"$AAPL - Apple Is A Strong Sell On High Valuation & Business Cycle Change." - Twitter. Is it another Ericsson? Google only provides the Ericsson share price back to 2004, but Macrotrends shows the share price chart adjusted for stock splits back to 1989. It started at SEK2.13, shot up to SEK84.57 in 2000, and is now SEK5.61.
"As you know, 90% -- over 90% of U.S. homeowners, either own their homes outright or have fixed rate mortgages under 5%. And so, that incentive to sell and move to a higher rate mortgage just isn't there" --Home Depot's CFO on the earnings call" - Twitter.
Tuesday 21 Feb 2023
"If you hold spare cash in your brokerage account you’re just giving free profits to your broker, who invests it in T-Bills (6M now at ~4.8%) and keeps the profits. Instead, it’s much smarter to either buy T-Bills yourself OR to put the cash in either a T-Bill ETF or T-Bill fund." - Twitter.
Venice canals run dry amid fears Italy faces another drought - CNN. And to think this is all caused by the methane gas from cows.
'WMT CEO says the investment the company is most excited about is "automation" ' - Twitter. The whole business could be computerized, including management.
The combination of the US crude oil stock (EIA) and strategic petroleum reserves (EIA) was about 1000 million barrels in 2010, reached 1200M in 2016, and is now down to 800M. It would require an extra 200M to return to 1000M barrels. US oil production is around 370M per month (EIA).
Global oil demand (ERCE) at 99M barrels per day has recovered close to the peak in 2019, and looks to flatten out. That is about 3000M barrels per month.
Monday 20 Feb 2023
Revisiting the signs leading up to hyperinflation. A government has three source of income: taxation, loans in the form of government bonds, and the printing of more money. Hyperinflation happens when a government hands out increasing benefits to pay for support. There is less incentive to work, the economy declines, and taxes are not enough to pay for expenses. Then the government must print more money every year to overcome the inflation caused by the money printed the previous year.
In the US, government receipts (green) has not kept up with expenses (blue) for a few decades, but is still a big contributor. The annual increase in total debt or money supply (red) is often as big as government expenditure (blue). Evidently the government did not print money to pay for expenses before 2008, and in 2020 printed money apparently paid for the big jump in expenses.
Another reason governments create money is to supply the demand for credit. When interest rates are too low the demand for credit exceeds the supply from savers.
Sunday 19 Feb 2023
Fully Electric Air Taxi Completes New York Test Flight - InsideEVs.
Gisele Bündchen Lands in Rio de Janeiro for Carnival in High Spirits - People. Or the spirits were in her.
Friday 17 Feb 2023
"India accuses BBC of tax irregularities after searching offices. Probe came after broadcaster aired documentary about prime minister’s role in 2002 religious riots" FT.
The FTSE 100 stock market index is reaching for new highs at 8013, compared to 7779 in 2018. This is the wrong time in the economic cycle. UK 10 year government bond yield rose to 3.5% in December (blue). Money supply growth (red) has declined, but is still in a rising channel.
Thursday 16 Feb 2023
"With 84% of companies reported, S&P 500 Q4 GAAP earnings are down 29% year-over-year, the 3rd straight quarter of negative YoY growth and the largest decline since Q2 2020. $SPX" - Twitter.
Tesla is forced to ‘recall’ all Full Self-Driving Beta with update, NHTSA says may cause crash - Electrek.
Portugal joins clampdown on ‘golden visas’ for wealthy - FT. An unlikely story. Property prices have shot up due to money creation. Like Brexit they just don't like non-Europeans.
"JUST IN: Tesla fires dozens of employees at its Buffalo, New York factory one day after Autopilot workers announced a union campaign, organizers say" - Twitter.
US crude oil stocks excluding SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserves) has increased, and is historically at high levels (EIA). The media covered the decline in the SPR for a long time. There is apparently no shortage of oil.
Is It Time to Ditch Gmail? Why I Decided to Make the Switch - Medium.
Wednesday 15 Feb 2023
Does the stock market provide a better return than property? A house represents one unit, whilst the stock market is the collective investment of the whole population. You need to account for population increase. The US stock market (blue) has outperformed the estimated total value of housing (red) since 2013, but the stock market is overpriced. It would not make sense for one asset class to outgrow the rest of the economy forever, which includes housing. The great benefit of housing is the ability to borrow money which loses value due to inflation.
Tuesday 14 Feb 2023
"In 1958, Warren Buffett bought this house in Omaha for $32k which he still owns (it’s now worth $650k). If he instead slept on Charlie Munger’s couch and invested those funds into Berkshire Hathaway, it would be worth $1.2B.Lesson: Don’t buy real estate." - Twitter. Since 1983 the Wilshire Hathaway share price has outperformed the Wilshire 5000 index by 7.3% per year. Over the last 10 years the outperformance was 2.2% per year.
Monday 13 Feb 2023
Amazon’s Self-Driving Car Shuttles People on Public Roads for the First Time - Bloomberg.
Mars Wrigley fined after two workers fell into a tank of chocolate - CNN.
Eight months ago: Here’s How Long It Takes To Fully Fill A Hydrogen Car! - Youtube.
Sunday 12 Feb 2023
'Nobody gives a damn': Home Depot's co-founder says the rise of 'socialism' is making people too lazy, fat and stupid to work — here are 4 stocks to capitalize on that trend - Yahoo. And government persecutes anyone who dares to earn money, in order to collect enough in taxes for all the benefits they hand out.
Scientists regenerate kidneys to reverse diabetes damage in mice - New Atlas.
Saturday 11 Feb 2023
The "Dirty Secrets" of California's Clean Energy | Jim Phelps - Youtube.
Amsterdam Just Got Awesomer (bicycle parking garage) - Youtube.
"Death for millions in 1921's record heat wave" - Twitter.
"NOAA confirms no increase in frequency or intensity of global hurricanes since 1990" - Twitter.
Wednesday 8 Feb 2023
The US has recoverable coal reserves of 251 billion short tons (EIA) x 19.333 million British thermal units per short ton x 0.293Wh = 1,422 trillion kWh. If generators are 33% efficient, it would produce 468 trillion kWh of electricity. US annual electricity consumption is about 4 trillion kWh. Thus the US has 117 years worth of coal left, if it was the only source of electricity. Oil and gas will run out a lot sooner. Unless nuclear power returns, the US could in the future be dependent on coal.
Tuesday 7 Feb 2023
"Coal generates 36% of global electricity. It's by far the biggest source of electricity in the world. Coal-fired power generation hit an all-time high in 2022. Together, China & India consumed 67% of the world’s coal & show no signs of slowing down." - Twitter.
US Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell says the Fed wants to be transparent, like mist over a swamp.
Monday 6 Feb 2023
US govt expenditure as % of GDP - Twitter.
"Public Storage makes $11 billion hostile bid for Life Storage" - Twitter. Trying to create another monopoly?
The US stock market has broken out above a declining resistance line:
In 2001 it also broke out above a resistance line, and then proceeded to decline until 2003:
Friday 3 Feb 2023
I Bought a CO2 Monitor, and It Broke Me - The Atlantic.
"Together, we are bringing light to Ukraine! Ukrainians can exchange their old bulbs at the post office for energy-efficient LED bulbs. The EU is gladly providing 35 million of them. Every kW of energy saved is precious to counter Russia's energy war." - Twitter. For years politicians acknowledged the Russian dictatorship by meeting with Putin. Now that their support for Putin has resulted in the Ukraine war, they make feeble attempts at supporting the Ukraine.
"Porsche has sold more cars in the 12mths to January (5715) than any other 12 month period. Luxury cars at 62mth high" - Twitter.
When government prints a lot of money to reduce debt, debt would also increase, because banks want to lend out the deposits they receive. Government could reduce its debt relative to total debt, by getting the private sector to borrow more. You would think that banks would offer low interest loans to get rid of all the cash, but depositors want high interest rates as compensation for inflation. Venezuela bank credit to bank deposits declined from 108% in 1960 to 48% in 2014 (below).
"The four highest mortgage interest rates in Africa in 2021 were in Southern African countries with Zimbabwe leading with a 50 percent mortgage interest rate" - Statista. If you have a home loan at 50% interest rate over 20 years, within 2 years you have already paid the price of the house. When inflation is 250%, the property is worth 6.2x more in two years.
US commercial bank deposits (blue) compared to bank credit (red):
Thursday 2 Feb 2023
In the US, like elsewhere, the percentage of the money supply paid out as wages have declined for decades. Some-one has accumulated money, and is probably not the workers. At the same time, total US debt relative to total wages shot from 1970 to 2009 (below). Much of the debt was borrowed by government in behalf of the population.
How is the debt problem resolved? Governments usually try to reduce debt by printing money, which reverses the prosperity created by excessive borrowing. Then what happens to the stock market? From 1970 to 1995 the stock market (blue) grew at a lower rate than 1/3 of the money supply (red). It is possible that the US stock market does not provide a real return for decades to come.
Wednesday 1 Feb 2023
Farmer Explains Why California Flushes 95% Rainwater to Ocean | Mark Nakata - Youtube.
US average house sales price is only slightly down in Q4 of 2022.
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