Tuesday 31 Jan 2023
How Fast Should The Money Supply Grow? - Talk Markets.
Tom Hanks, Robin Wright to Be De-Aged in Robert Zemeckis’ New Movie Using Metaphysic AI Tool - The Hollywood Reporter.
The EU economic output (blue) was 2.2x money supply (red) in 1979. It is now 1x.
Monday 30 Jan 2023
US average hourly earnings (red) stayed close to inflation (blue) until 2008. Corporate profits per employee oscillated around inflation until 2002, but is now 2.6x bigger.
Sunday 29 Jan 2023
'BREAKING: Indian billionaire Gautam Adani published a 413-page rebuttal after allegations of fraud by short seller Hindenburg Research, saying it was a "calculated attack" ' - Twitter.
Saturday 28 Jan 2023
US federal government debt payment was 0.8% of total debt or money in circulation in Q3 of 2022. The government could easily print 1% more money to pay the interest. Total debt was growing at 6.8% in Q3. Interest rates are still too low to compensate savers for inflation.
Friday 27 Jan 2023
Switzerland, a country that seemingly doesn't change much, had a fairly constant economic output to money supply ratio (velocity of money flow) from 1980 to 2009. If money supply growth represents the nominal inflation rate, this chart would be the real economic output. Since 2009 economic output has now fallen to 67% of the money in circulation (velocity of money flow).
Switzerland's government spending is 49% of economic output:
Thursday 26 Jan 2023
Smartphones: better kit could depress long-term growth - FT. "Global smartphone shipments dropped 18.3 per cent — the most on record ..." The new 5G speed provided a temporary reason to upgrade.
"Household debt to income ratios in selected OECD countries" - Twitter.
"What's particularly painful about this chart is that most of the damage during the 2000-2002 collapse - in the broad market - occurred between late-2000 and October 2002. The speculative fringe stocks were the canaries in the coalmine." - Twitter.
Wednesday 25 Jan 2023
US sues Google over its digital ad ‘dominance’ - FT.
From 13 Jan: Coolest Tech I Saw at CES 2023 in Las Vegas - Youtube.
Treeswing - Businessballs. Swing Cartoon - Guliziagraphics.
Some people are looking at the limited US M2 money supply as inflation indicator. Up to Q3 of 2022 US total debt (blue) was still growing at 6.8%. The biggest factor is government debt (red), which grew at 8.8%. To reduce debt, a government must either cut spending, increase taxes, or print money. In the past an increase in government debt (red) was often followed by an increase in total debt (blue) probably because more money is created, except in 2009.
US government debt as a percentage of total debt has risen from 17.6% in 2008 to 33.5% in Q3 of 2022:
Tuesday 24 Jan 2023
"Man With Taylor Swift Tickets And A Dozen Eggs Tops Forbes Wealthiest List" - Twitter.
Adani Group: How The World’s 3rd Richest Man Is Pulling The Largest Con In Corporate History - Hindenberg Research.
"I sometimes sit back and just think about when Satya Nadella sold half his stake in Microsoft. Whether intended or not, that was the most amazing timing ever." - Twitter.
Monday 23 Jan 2023
"Imagine. Two governments that destroy the purchasing power of currency by printing massively... Together." - Twitter.
Sunday 22 Jan 2023
' "Labor Economist" Janet Yellen sees a shovel for the first time in her life.' - Twitter.
Saturday 21 Jan 2023
China Now Grows More Corn Than Rice - Zero Hedge.
"How Al Gore has made $330m with climate alarmism: Former VP made a fortune after losing to George W when he set up a green investment firm now worth $36BN that pays him $2m a month... as he warns about 'rain bombs' and 'boiling oceans' " - Twitter.
Friday 20 Jan 2023
"China expects to add 70 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired power generation this year, up from 40 GW of capacity from coal installed in 2022, a report from the power sector’s group, China Electricity Council, showed." - Twitter.
Thursday 19 Jan 2023
Europe's natural gas price has fallen to €64.170/MWh from a peak of €339.20 in Aug (Trading Economics). Still much higher than the €3.51 low in 2020.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average hits resistance at 34,000. The all time high was 36,800 on 4 Jan 2022. Speculators cause a broadening descending wedge, which will one day break to the upside due to the devaluation of the dollar. A stock market collapse is more likely in the interim. If technical analysis could predict the future, we would all be wealthy.
In 2008 the Wilshire 5000 index was in a descending channel, which ended in a stock market collapse:
The copper price (red) is usually low when the Chilean peso is weak (blue). Now the Peso is weak and the copper price high. The world supply of copper might be limited.
Wednesday 18 Jan 2023
Chile rejects Andes Iron’s Dominga mining project - Mining. Chile supplies 27% of the world's copper. Many countries are now limiting mining of minerals. You can kiss large scale electric vehicle production goodbye.
"“If we want to reach net zero by 2050, we need to have two-thirds of energy from renewable sources by 2030. In that scenario, we need a 20% increase in production per annum of copper." Our CEO Jeremy Weir speaking today at #WEF2023 about the clean energy economy." - Twitter.
I added a solar panel to charge my $2,000 electric truck - Youtube. The US government provides a $7500 subsidy, when people can buy a $2000 vehicle. One more reason why the economy does not grow.
500 ATMs Blown-Up By Migrant Gangs In Germany In 2022, Setting New Record - Zero Hedge.
"According to @ABSStats in the September quarter 2022 the number of Australian dwellings under construction reached a new record high of 244,479 in original terms. " - Twitter.
In France, car sales (blue) increased more than the population (red) until 1990, an indication of an increase in the standard of living. Since then there has been a gradual decline in the standard of living.
Tuesday 17 Jan 2023
"China had 1.41 billion people at the end of last year, 850,000 fewer than the end of 2021: National Statistics Bureau data. That marks the first drop since 1961, and a much quicker start to the nation’s population decline than previously forecast." Twitter. How many were Covid deaths?
The way politicians destroy the value of money, and with the support of voters, is amazing: US (blue), Europe (red), and Japan (green). US money grew at 8.2% per year since 1970. A currency can remain strong when there is limited competition for its exports. The US and Europe print money at a similar rate, which results in a small change in the exchange rate.
As governments print more money, they can also borrow more. This a good trick (Three Amigos). There is no net benefit in borrowing back as much money as they have printed, but they get to spend the money twice. The people they borrow from are probably not the same people who benefit from their spending. They borrow from the wealthy, and make poor people dependent on government.
In 1971 you received Japan ¥358 for $1. In 2012 it strengthened to ¥76.3. According to the money supply ratio, it should be about ¥70 now.
Monday 16 Jan 2023
From 13 Jan: Hundreds of ultra-short private jet flights to Davos revealed, as global leaders head into World Economic Forum - GreenPeace.
The US stock market (blue) matches 1/3 of total debt (green) more closely than economic output (red), except for the fall in 2009. The debt should equal money supply, which represents nominal inflation. Over many decades debt (green) has grown faster than the economy (red). The future of the stock market is going to depend on how much money the government prints to reduce the massive debt. Government always try to solve a debt problem by printing money. The stock market may appear to go up in US dollars, but it is all a devaluation of the currency.
Sunday 15 Jan 2023
Illegal Immigration Into Europe Soared By 64% In 2022 To Reach Six-Year High - Zero Hedge.
Widely varying figures depending on definition:
From 15 Jul 2022: Over 114,700 People Entered EU Illegally in the First Half of 2022 – Western Balkan Route Most Active - Schengenvisa.
From 9 Sep 2022: Over 4.6 million people seek safety in Europe by mid-2022 - European Union Agency for Asylum.
Friday 13 Jan 2023
Below is US economic output relative to total debt, or the velocity of money flow (blue), and mortgage interest rates (red). When economic output increases with the same money in circulation, it is very likely real economic growth (blue up). In the US this has only happened during a recovery from a recession (grey band). One possible reason is that corporate profits fall during a recession, and as a result they are forced to become more efficient.
When money supply grows faster than the economic output (blue down), real economic growth is possible, but seems less likely. The output falls faster when interest rates decline (red). Lower interest rates cause asset appreciation, and wealth creation without production. The government could also be printing more money to supply the increased demand for credit. It may appear like real economic growth, because wages do not keep with inflation, and workers inadvertently become more efficient, but their weighting in the inflation basket should be reduced.
There are two reasons why stock markets rise, namely inflation and economic growth. Only economic growth gives real growth in the stock market, and benefits the population.
Thursday 12 Jan 2023
New Strategies for Inflation, Real Estate, and Volatile Markets - Robert Kiyosaki, Nomi Prins - Youtube.
All countries have a similar chart for money supply as Australia below. From A$7 billion Jan 1960 to A$2791 billion in Oct 2022. A$1 in 1960 would now be worth 0.25c, without economic growth.
House prices x working population (red) kept up with money creation (blue) until 2007, but has fallen behind until 2021. Economic output (green) is 2.8x less than money in circulation and debt, compared to 1970. Some people have more money saved up than what they spend, whilst others have borrowed more than they earned.
Wednesday 11 Jan 2023
French Workers Vow "Mother Of All Battles" As Macron Govt To Raise Retirement Age To 64 - Zero Hedge. Government has run out of other people's money.
US government interest payments as percentage of total expenditure reached 12.2% in Q3 of 2022. One can assume there is a limit to how much money any government is willing to spend on interest. The loans by the Federal Reserve Bank has already added new money to the supply. The government could replace that debt by printing the money, and not pay interest on it.
Tuesday 10 Jan 2023
"The 100 largest S&P500 stocks ranked by expected revenue growth this year. $TSLA $BA $NOW on top, $PFE & $MRNA at the bottom. Average for the whole index ? +3%. This is GS data but the growth is the current consensus." - Twitter.
"As long as the EU relies on LNG, these prices are not going to go much lower for the very simple reason that LNG could never be as cheap as pipeline gas." - Twitter.
Children near airports may be exposed to dangerous levels of lead - Medical Express.
The price of eggs in the US (blue) shot up to $3.589 per dozen in November. The price has not kept up with nominal inflation since 1980 according to money supply growth (blue), probably because wages have not kept pace with asset appreciation amongst the wealthy. According to Trading Economics it reached a peak of $5.29 on 28 Dec.
Total US wages (blue) have done poorly compared to the wealth created on the stock market (red). Wages are annual income, whilst the stock market represents capital value.
Monday 9 Jan 2023
'A "Checkmate-Like" Situation: Zoltan Pozsar Says Fed Will Restart QE By The Summer Of 2023' - Twitter. Interest rates need to rise until the supply and demand for credit match, otherwise the government will have to supply the credit by creating more money.
From Dec: California Moves to Get Rid of Fossil Fuel, What's The Problem? | Ronald Stein - Youtube.
Goodyear's New Tire Is Made From Soybean Oil, Rice Husks And Pine Resin - Motortrend.
Scientists Just Invented an Entirely New Way to Refrigerate Things - Science Alert.
"In pictures: Brazil in chaos as protesters storm government buildings" - Twitter. Brazil government spending as percentage of the economy has remained low for decades:
Sunday 8 Jan 2023
Gaining traction, losing tread Pollution from tire wear now 1,850 times worse than exhaust emissions - Emission Analytics.
"The quest to build a perfect pizza robot is drawing engineers from SpaceX" - Twitter.
Saturday 7 Jan 2023
Feed Ingredient for Dairy Cows Could Prove Harmful - Modern Farmer.
Friday 6 Jan 2023
Factset: "For Q4 2022, the estimated earnings decline for the S&P 500 is -4.1%". "As of today, the S&P 500 is expected to report (year-overyear) revenue growth of 3.8%"
In 2022, the IRS Went After the Very Poorest Taxpayers - Reason.
According to the internet the world has 52 years of gas reserves left. Some countries have replaced their coal power plants with gas power plants. The world burns 8 billion tons of coal per year, and 3 billion tons of gas. The energy content of coal is about 25MJ/kg, and gas 50MJ/kg. If all the coal power were replaced by gas, there would be 22 years worth of gas left.
US reserves was flat until 2005 (Hellenic Shipping News), increased to 625.4 trillion cubic feet (17.71 cubic metres) in 2021, which is enough for twenty years at 30.66 tcf per year.
World gas reserves (WIkipedia) increased over time. According to BP in trillions of cublic metres: 2000 = 138, 2010 = 179.9, 2020 = 188.1. Has the world reached peak reserves?
Of the Euros in circulation 1.52x was spent in a year in 1995. It is now down to just 0.85x. The most likely reason is that most of the money is held by wealthy people, who don't need to spend it, whilst the workers have been impoverished by money printing, and have less income to spend. The debt has also increased relative to economic production.
Thursday 5 Jan 2023
Walmart Delivery Drones Now Operate in 7 States - Cnet.
Big investors ask Glencore to justify thermal coal development - Reuters. Production needs to be limited to hold up the coal price. Using the environment as an excuse to limit production is great strategy.
3D Printed AtmoMotor HV Atmospheric Motor - Wireless Energy - Youtube.
Marrakesh, Morocco: Fighting to Keep Ancient Traditions Alive - Youtube.
Wednesday 4 Jan 2023
Best of St. Maarten - Youtube.
Tuesday 3 Jan 2023
South Korea fines Tesla for exaggerating driving range of EVs - Moneyweb. "The driving range of the US EV manufacturer’s cars plunges in cold weather by up to 50.5% versus how they are advertised online".
I went to Norway to see an electric vehicle paradise, but I found something more surprising - Electrek. Electric cars are now 80% of sales. Norway gets 96% of its electricity from hydropower. From 7 Jul 2022: Norway scrambles to avoid empty hydropower reservoirs this winter - Reuters.
Maldives seaplane flight | Cockpit view (4K) | SPECTACULAR experience - Youtube.
Tesla Posts Record EV Deliveries In Fourth Quarter – But Misses Expectations - Forbes.
From 8 Dec 2022: Global Plug-In Electric Car Sales In October 2022 Increased By 55% - InsideEVs. In Oct 2022 932,000 electric cars were sold, 13% compared to all sales of 7.1M: LMC Automotive Global Light Vehicle Sales Update (October 2022) - Marklines.
Australia's house prices rose to high levels, shown on the chart below as approximate value in A$ (red). The M3 money supply, which approximately equals total debt, per working age person (blue) is relatively small. The wealth created by the increase in property values must eventually lead to inflation.
The total value of housing in Australia was A$9,674.4B in Q3 (ABS). M3 money supply was A$2771B in Sep.
The approximate average Australian house price in A$ compared to the USA house price in US$ climbed from 0.58x in 1971 to 1.66x in 2022 (blue). The exchange rate went from A$0.89/$ to A$1.49/$ on the chart (red). Over time both house prices, and the exchange rate shows the actual inflation rate.
Monday 2 Jan 2023
FRED has a Consumer Price Index for the UK from 1210 to 2016. Since 1934 prices have not declined. After the Great Depression the idea developed that lower prices lead to delayed spending, and a declining economy. Money supply was increased to keep prices rising. For 724 years before that prices went up and down, apparently without any problems.
Sunday 1 Jan 2023
Canada is banning some foreigners from buying property after home prices surged - CNN. The driver for house prices (red) is the increase in money supply, shown per person below (blue):
Canada's interest rates (blue) continued to decline until 2020, despite the increase in money supply, and inflation, which includes property prices (red):
The current account of Canada is not available on FRED. The description of these exports and imports are not clear, but it looks like Canada has balanced trade, which means little net capital flow, such as from foreign home buyers:
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