Friday 30 Dec 2022
Soyuz Failed at Space Station With a Severe Coolant Leak Requiring Backup Options - Next Big Future.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indexes are clearly on a down slope, after peaking in December last year, although the rate of decline has slowed down.
US total debt per household (red) equalled the average house price for a long time, from 1963 to 1991. That would make sense if all debt were mortgage debt, and house prices equalled the value of the home loan, which is not the case. The average household now has direct and indirect debt of $719,000, much of which is through government debt. Their average house is worth $543,000.
Mortgage debt (blue) is small compared to total debt (red). That is not good sign for the average person. The big total debt will be devalued in the future by inflation. It would make sense to have a home loan that loses value over time.
Thursday 29 Dec 2022
"What do state-level economic data tell us about the risk of a U.S. recession?" - Twitter.
Times Square Crowne Plaza Hotel Goes Bankrupt - Zero Hedge.
The average sales price of houses for the US (red) stayed with the total debt per person (blue) until 1981, then interest rates declined. Where did all the debt go? Government debt per person (green) is now 34% of the total, compared to 19% in 1981. Government debt is a bigger problem that mortgage debt. Government debt was mostly spent on running expenses which don't generate the income to pay the debt.
For as long as total debt (blue) grows, the future inflation will boost house prices. The sharp increase in house prices (red) is likely to correct.
Wednesday 28 Dec 2022
"The S&P 500 still does not look cheap despite a lower valuation" - Twitter.
Spain Is Latest To Announce Billions In "Inflation-Relief" Stimmies - Zero Hedge. Mankind has learnt nothing from the past. The majority always ends up being impoverished, and then needs a revolution.
"Elon Musk is the person who has lost the most wealth this year. Since January, he has become $140bn poorer. In second place among the losers is Jeff Bezos, with a loss of $86bn, ahead of crypto billionaire @cz_binance." - Twitter. $140,000,000,000 is a lot of money.
Tuesday 27 Dec 2022
"BREAKING: Supreme Court orders Title 42 border restriction to be kept in effect." - Twitter.
Monday 26 Dec 2022
"Massive Electric Semi Truck Subsidies" - Twitter.
"35-Year Ford Chart $F Exact same price, literally, 35 years later..." - Twitter.
San Francisco Businesses Demand Tax Refund Over Drugs, Crime, & Homelessness Crisis - Zero Hedge.
As US interest rates declined after 1981, the money supply grew faster than the economy. Lower interest rates cause asset appreciation. If you take the estimated value of all housing, minus the mortgage debt, and you add the value of the stock market, you happen to get assets (red) that coincide at times with total debt or money supply (blue). Bonds also increase in value with lower interest rates, but revert back to face value at maturity, thus no long term appreciation.
If for argument sake, people buy properties with a mortgage from sellers who have paid off their mortgage, the seller could deposit the cash with a bank, and the buyer could borrow the same money from the bank. Thus money supply and debt would increase with home prices.
The asset appreciation must eventually lead to inflation. The wealth increase was not generated with a matching increase in economic output. Wages only increase with the economic output. Thus the wealthy become wealthier, and workers poorer.
Mortgages held by Fannie Mae (blue) shot up in 2010, shown relative to residential mortgages (red). The Fannie Mae's source of funds is undetermined. If created by the government, then that would cause inflation.
Sunday 25 Dec 2022
Three busloads of migrants dropped at Kamala Harris’ home on Christmas Eve - New York Post. Did the visitors bring gifts?
Saturday 24 Dec 2022
"Current electricity mix in Texas" - Twitter.
Friday 23 Dec 2022
"Amazon $AMZN had 59 analyst "buy" ratings at the start of the year and 0 "holds" or "sells." The 24 Russell 1,000 stocks with coverage from at least 8 analysts that had 100% "buys" at the start of the year are down an average of roughly 32% YTD. " - Twitter. The only people who make money consistently are fund managers who earn fees.
McDonald's Unveils Automated Restaurant In Texas With No Human Contact - Zero Hedge.
Canada wants to ban fuel vehicles from 2035. They get most of their electricity from hydro (60.1%) (Trade.gov). It relies on enough water flowing into the dams during the summer. What happens during an ice age?
Canada needs 569TWh per year, and had installed capacity in 2020 by source: hydro 81.4GW = 713TWh max, natural gas 24.3GW = 212TWh, wind 13.5GW ~ 30TWh, nuclear 12.5GW = 110TWh, coal 8.5GW =74TWh (Statista). They are dependent on hydro-electricity.
Canada used 40.2 billion litres of motor gasoline in 2021, down from 45 billion in 2019 (Statistics Canada). The energy content is on average 32MJ/litre = 357TWh. If gasoline engines are 30% efficient, it would require 107TWh of extra electricity to charge electric cars.
Thursday 22 Dec 2022
Visualizing EV Production in the U.S. by Brand - Visual Capitalist.
"Memory loss at $MU! Massive oversupply + weak demand. Rev down 39% y/y, 47% q/q, margin collapse. Inventory at 205% of rev, up from 63%! Week guide. Cutting costs 10% & Capex $1bn to $7bn. EPS deeply in the red for 2023E. Consensus (who TF knows) implies a 20x 24E PE, not cheap!" - Twitter.
"Once-In-A-Generation" Snowpocalypse Sweeps Across US - Zero Hedge. It is the start of the new ice age, as in The Day After Tomorrow.
Congress Crafts Record Federal Spending Bill For FY2023 - Talk Markets.
Governments tend to continue spending on the same services forever. To keep up with the cost of those services, their spending must keep up with inflation, making it an indication of the inflation rate. That is besides governments handing out more benefits over time to pay for voter support. US government spending has decline relative to the money in circulation (blue), and increased as a percentage of the economy (red) from 17% in 1947 to 24% now:
Wednesday 21 Dec 2022
"“One-fifth of all passenger cars, SUVs and trucks sold in Canada in 2026 will need to run on electricity under new regulations” (60% by 2030; 100% by 2035). That’s a lot—*very* soon. Sure hope our grid, condos, OEMs, and EV supply chain are ready." - Twitter.
There are economists who do not think money supply growth leads to inflation. It is impossible to express an opinion about an economy, or make investments, without knowing the inflation rate. Politicians cannot be trusted to report the inflation they cause. The exchange rate between currencies closely follows the difference in money supply growth over time. It suggests countries have little relative economic growth, and that money supply growth = inflation.
The US has had three periods since 1960 in which total debt (= money supply in blue) grew at an ever increasing rate. If allowed to continue, it would have led to hyperinflation. Except the reason why the money supply stopped accelerating is not clear. The first period ended in 1985. It could have been a delayed reaction to high interest rates (red). In 2008 the money supply growth fell during the Great Recession without a sharp increase in interest rates (red). Today money supply (blue) is also accelerating, and interest rates (red) are still too low to provide savers with a real return.
There are two reason for money supply growth, namely government printing money to pay for expenses, and to supply the demand for credit. In Venezuela and Zimbabwe the governments print money to pay for support. In the US, savers do not know what the inflation rate is, and so a lesser interest rate might be sufficient to match the supply and demand for credit.
The multiplier effect, in which lending by a bank results in another bank deposit, increases the apparent money supply, but not inflation because the depositor gives up the use of his money in favour of the borrower. It is only the money the government creates that leads to inflation, because there is no counterparty involved.
Tuesday 20 Dec 2022
The Infinite Christmas Tree: How to Cut Your Tree So it Will Grow Again - Modern Farmer.
Nike (NKE) Investors Q2 revenue +17%, shares -2.8%, dEPS $0.85 up from $0.83 last year, PE ratio $116.51/~(4x$0.85) ~34. Costs rose 19.6%.
Oregon Approves A Ban On The Sale Of Gasoline And Diesel Cars From 2035 - Oil Price. This is all based on a politician who saw a correlation between temperature and CO2 levels, and could not distinguish between cause and effect.
FBI paid Twitter $3.5M to do its bidding - Daily Mail.
Discovery had a show called Dirty Jobs hosted by Mike Rowe ("This site is not available in your country"). What about the dirty jobs Santa has? He must clean up after the reindeer. Nobody ever mentions that.
Truffle is an expensive food that grows underground as a fungus. Chocolate truffles contain no actual truffle, but is named for its ball shape.
The US Federal Reserve Bank has started to reduce the government debt it holds (red). Up to Q3, US government (green) and total US debt (blue) still increased.
Monday 19 Dec 2022
Two great economists debate inflation’s true causes, forecast 2023’s inflation - Hanke & Cochrane - Youtube.
Electric flying car beats planes & copters in silent commute (eVTOL) - Youtube.
German union warns Amazon of rolling pre-Christmas strikes - Reuters. Not sure what it is, but you just get that feeling more automation is coming.
In a new poll, Elon Musk will ask Twitter users whether if they really want him to step down as CEO, or whether they were just kidding.
US average wage is now $4215 per month. Adjusted for the official inflation rate, it is now the same as 1973:
Relative to the US average house price, the average wage is now 40% of what it was in 1964:
If you divide the money in circulation (total US debt) amongst the population, the average wage is 20% of that money compared to what it was in 1964. Some people save more than they spend compared to the past, whilst others borrow more than they earn.
Sunday 18 Dec 2022
"NEW: Individual investors have kept buying stocks this year, pouring more than $100 billion into US stock funds—one of highest on *record* going back to 2000. Meanwhile, institutional investors have grown more bearish." - Twitter. The public like to sell at the bottom and buy at the top. There can only be a net inflow into the stock market if new shares are issued. For every seller there is a buyer. Some-one continues to hold the stock.
Twitter blocks links to other social media websites: Twitter. Youtube apparently also removes comments containing a link. That could affect the usefulness of the service.
Saturday 17 Dec 2022
The stock market is tumbling because investors now fear recession more than inflation - Market Watch. The stock market loves inflation. Inflation is by far the biggest reason for the rise of the stock market.
The US stock market relative to total debt as nominal inflation rate made a peak at a similar level to 1972 and 2000. To get back to 0.2 would require a -53% fall. To make real money requires buying at a low level on the chart, and selling at a high level. At this point the chances of getting real growth is close to zero.
Friday 16 Dec 2022
Electric Plane Adoption Faces an Uphill Battle Thanks to Physics - Jalopnik.
"A Raddison Hotel in Berlin has a 264,000-gallon fish tank in its lobby called the AquaDom. It broke and flooded the hotel. And they now have 1,500 dead fish in the lobby." - Twitter.
Musk suspends journalists from Twitter, claims ‘assassination’ danger - The Washington Post. Whatever the situation is, it makes sense for a platform to ban comments that could have a negative effect on profits, like criticism of the management.
From 19 Jul: China sets up iron ore giant to oversee raw material supplies to its huge steel industry - Business Live. "The establishment of the company marks China’s biggest effort yet to tackle what its officials have long argued is the excessive pricing power wielded by miners including BHP and Rio Tinto. China spent about $180bn on iron ore imports last year."
"Iron ore shipments to China from Australia’s Port Hedland terminal, the world’s biggest iron ore port, rose by 14% to 41.53 million tonnes in November 2022 from 36.49 million tonnes in the same month in 2021, official data showed... " - Twitter.
Wall Street Journal Slams German Migration Policy, Points To Terrible Unemployment Situation - Zero Hedge.
There are a lot of comments about how high the US Federal Reserve Bank (FOMC) can take interest rates before it impacts the economy. Interest rates are determined by the supply and demand for credit. Borrowers must pay the interest rates savers demand. If interest rates are kept too low, the government must print money to make up for the shortfall, which causes more inflation. Then savers will require higher interest rates.
Thursday 15 Dec 2022
"A Chinese startup seeking to be the country’s answer to SpaceX is preparing a satellite launch that could beat Elon Musk’s company by relying on a new generation of rocket fuel (methane)" - Twitter.
LA's New Mayor Declares 'State Of Emergency' Over Homelessness - ZeroHedge. Wherever in the world wealth is created, poor people descend upon it, especially if there are subsidized services.
"Mistletoe attaches itself to various host trees, including poplar and ash, embedding its rootlike structures into the tree's trunk. Then, the plant slowly sucks the life out of its host. Over time, this kills the host tree, one limb at a time." - Twitter. A pleasant thought for the day.
Wednesday 14 Dec 2022
Tesla Full Self-Driving data looks awful: We challenge Elon Musk to prove otherwise - Electrek.
"[Historically], we maybe had hundreds of dollars on a 4G base station. We're now looking at thousands of dollars in that 5G base station now." - Twitter. Why spend more money on radio networks when everybody switches over to fibre.
China's chip suppliers have some growing up to do - Reuters.
Campbell Soup reported inflation of 16% for the quarter ended October, yet the US official inflation rate is 7.1% for November.
Total US debt (money supply) (red) still grew at 6.6% in Q3, which determines the nominal inflation rate. The interest rate of 3.61% on US 10 year treasuries (blue) in December is too low.
US jewelry and watches sale value (blue) stayed with total debt (= money supply) (red) from 1952 to 1981, and then they parted ways. Sales did jump in 2021.
Tuesday 13 Dec 2022
Chairwoman Waters Statement on the Arrest of Sam Bankman-Fried - Twitter.
Monday 12 Dec 2022
"Oil shale well productivity is declining." - Twitter.
"How long does it take for a power plant to start up and supply electricity to the grid?" - Twitter.
'Policy makers are going to be pressed to consider the wisdom of using interest-rate increases to tame inflation when housing is one of the sectors most sensitive. We certainly can't afford a repeat of the underbuilding phenomenon of the 2010s.' - Twitter. Housing is unaffordable because the houses are too big and fittings too luxurious. People are living above their means, by borrowing from savers, and repaying the loans with dollars of lesser value.
From Oct: PET-Machine, make Your own 3D printer filament from plastic bottles at home (DIY!) - Youtube.
Sunday 11 Dec 2022
"Households use to own 93% of the US stock market directly in 1945. Now they only own 37%. How do we make owning stocks directly great again? And should we?" - Twitter.
"In Germany right now coal + lignite (also coal) is producing nearly 50% of all electricity" - Twitter.
Friday 9 Dec 2022
"It’s cold & there is no onshore wind to get a turbine to produce electricity. That needs minimum 14km/h. 45km/h to run it at capacity. Turning nukes or coal off in Europe until e-storage & required transmission lines can replace some of the old with baseload power is criminal." - Twitter. There will be no electricity storage of any significance.
Home Depot is piloting new methods to new prevent theft - Youtube. Everywhere law-abiding citizens have to pay more for security, because government is not performing its primary function.
"As a reminder, Japan is everyone's endgame" - Twitter.
The debt held by the US Federal Reserve is small compared to total debt at 9.8%:
Federal government debt is 33.5% of total debt:
US houses bought with cash (blue) is small compared to conventional sales (red). That is wise, because much bigger growth on the investment is achieved by writing off a home loan through the inflation that governments create.
Thursday 8 Dec 2022
Flanked by Union Allies, Biden Touts $36 Billion Pension Bailout - Bloomberg.
"NEW: One of the hottest emerging market investments was Ghana. Now it's asking for a $3 billion bailout. It’s one of the starkest warning signs yet for investors." - Twitter. Whenever a country needs a bailout, it just means the government doesn't want to lose votes by cutting benefits or increasing taxes.
Portugal ends mandatory environmental assessments for green hydrogen projects - India Times. A fuel cell is 40% to 60% efficient. Electrolysis is 70% to 80% efficient. Thus to convert electricity to hydrogen, back to electricity returns 28% to 48% of the original energy.
....From 22 Feb 2022: The Hydrogen Stream: CPV-powered PEM electrolyzers for 1.2MW demo in Portugal - PV Magazine. An investmentment of €1.54M for 1.22MW is €2.08/W compared to about €0.69/W for a retail solar panel.
...."The gallium was easily recovered for reuse after the reaction". New Jersey Department of Health: "Gallium is a CORROSIVE CHEMICAL and contact can severely irritate and burn the skin and eyes with possible eye damage. * Breathing Gallium can irritate the nose and throat causing coughing and wheezing. * Gallium may damage the liver and kidneys. * Gallium may affect the nervous system and lungs.".
Wednesday 7 Dec 2022
Campbell Soup (CPB), Packaged Foods & Meats. Investors: Q1 net sales +15%, volume -1%, dEPS $0.99 up 15% from $0.86 a year ago, or adjusted $1.02 up from $0.89. Cost inflation also 16%.
Peru swears in a new president amid constitutional crisis - NPR.
Uber and Motional's robotaxis arrive in Las Vegas - Engadget.
3 Things That Will SINK the Economy - Robert Kiyosaki, @JamesRickardsProject - Youtube.
"Airlines servicing New Zealand face jet fuel rationing in coming weeks after a shipment failed quality control testing" - Twitter. Perhaps what brought down Amelia Earhart, after her last refuel in Papua New Guinea.
Everybody knows about Amelia Earhart's failed attempt to fly around the globe, but nobody knows Geraldine Mock: Who Was the First Woman to Fly Solo Around the World? - Smithsonian Magazine.
"FLASH: In #Argentina, VP Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner was sentenced to 6 years in jail and disqualified from holding public office in a high profile corruption case. Unsurprisingly, it was CFK's corrupt Peronist policies that tanked Argentina." - Twitter. Don't cry for me Argentina - Youtube.
Tuesday 6 Dec 2022
The $31BN Seawall to Save The Texas Coast - Youtube.
BIS Warns Of 2023 Black Swan - A Derivatives Time Bomb - Youtube.
Tesla says it is adding radar in its cars next month amid self-driving suite concerns - Electrek.
Meta cannot run ads based on personal data, EU privacy watchdog rules - source - Reuters. The effectiveness of adverts must be very low.
Special Report: In France, minority communities decry a surge in police fines - Reuters. "The vast majority of the people fined had Arab or African surnames, the data showed."
Billionaire Mark Cuban Becomes Elon Musk's Most Vocal Opponent - The Street. There should be a distinction made between fact and opinion. A person has the right to any opinion, although some constitutions exclude incitement of violence.
"PhD economists claim the inflation of the 1970s was caused by oil prices soaring. The fact of the matter is, priced in gold, the price of oil hardly budged. The price of oil soared because the value of the dollar collapsed." - Twitter.
"A U.S. federal investigation is underway on testing and treatment of animals in Elon Musk's Neuralink, where current and ex-staff say pigs, monkeys and other animals suffered and died unnecessarily in rushed tests under Musk's pressure cooker environment" - Twitter.
North Carolina Power Station Attack Leaves 33,000 in the Dark - Bloomberg. And in South Africa on the opposite side of planet earth: "Vandalism and theft of the Barcelona substation affects over 30 000 customers." - Twitter.
3 Issues That Drive me Nuts with Tesla Full Self-Driving Beta in San Francisco - Twitter.
"There’s a lot to unpack here …" - Twitter.
Monday 5 Dec 2022
Taylor Swift “Ticket Sale Disaster” Sparks Suit Against Ticketmaster, Live Nation - The Hollywood Reporter. Why doesn't she just hold an extra concert?
How Mainstream Media is Destroying the United States - Armstrong Economics. That is universal. The liberals live in upmarket neigbourhoods, and do not care about the decline in poor neighbourhoods.
Microsoft, Apple, And Google Join Forces to Kill The Password - ExtremeTech. "... people will use their phones to authenticate their identity". It they access the app from their smartphone, the phone is already unlocked. They probably mean the website will identify the phone. "You can still access your passkey even if you lose your phone according to Google. It will be synced to the cloud, and be resent to your new device." That creates more problems than it solves.
China's goods exports (blue) and imports (red) in US dollars relative to US money supply (total debt) as nominal inflation indicator have gone sideways since 2010. The trade surplus suggests a net capital outflow. China's imports and exports are tiny compared to US money supply, at around 0.3% per month = 3.6% per year.
Sunday 4 Dec 2022
US lumber prices (blue) have been very volatile. Relative to the money in circulation (red), it is exceptionally cheap compared to 1952. Go and get yourself some timber for Christmas.
In Australia the average dwelling price is $922,000. The average wage is $68,000 per year. If one third of the wage is spent on housing, it would take 41 years to pay for it. For a normal house with a yard it would be more like 80 years.
Saturday 3 Dec 2022
Here are the 20+ of the Hottest Toys for Christmas 2022 — Lego, Jurassic World, LOL, Bluey - USA Today.
"In December 2021, SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket launched a cargo capsule to deliver supplies and Christmas gifts to astronauts in the International Space Station. Learn more about The Cost of Space Flight Before and After SpaceX" - Twitter.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), from 18 Oct: website Q3 revenue +1.9%, shares -0.5% less, EPS $1.68 up from $1.37 last year, adjusted EPS $2.55 down from $2.60 last year, PE = $178.88/$7.17 = 25, dividend yield 4x$1.13/$178.88 = 2.7%. The sum of revenue growth and dividend yield is far too low to beat inflation.
Electricity prices in California is around 28c/kWh. Gasoline costs $4.814/gallon, and has an energy density of 130MJ/gallon or 36.1kWh/gallon, which works out to 13.3c/kWh. If a gasoline engine is 30% efficient, it increases the cost to 44c/kWh, compared to the cost of electricity of 28c/kWh. That would make electric vehicles -37% cheaper to run.
The average electric car uses 0.346kWh/mile (Eco Cost Savings). With electricity prices at 28c/kWh, it works out to 9.7c/mile. Most electric cars are small. If a small gasoline car achieves 30mpg (miles per gallon) that works out to 1.2kWh/mile. Gasoline costs 13.3c/kWh, which works out to 16c/mile. Then electric cars are -40% cheaper to run.
The upfront cost of the battery makes EVs more expensive, but you don't have to maintain an engine. The power company is responsible for maintaining their turbines. If a battery adds $10,000 to the car price, you have to drive 160,000 miles for the saving in fuel to pay for the battery. By then the battery will probably have reached its end of life (EV Batteries 101: Degradation, Lifespan, Warranties, and More).
The average electricity price in the US is $0.166/kWh, which is -40% cheaper than California, which reduces the break-even range to 96,000 miles.
Friday 2 Dec 2022
EU To Set $60 Price Cap On Russian Oil; Kremlin Vows To Ignore, Cut Supply - Talk Markets.
Marauding Bands Of Looters Are Stealing Billions Of Dollars Worth Of Merchandise As America Descends Into Lawlessness - Zero Hedge. Looting and subsidized government services have the same result. It means more benefits for less work. It lowers production for the same money in circulation, leading to inflation.
Kanye West’s Twitter account has been suspended after Elon Musk says it violated rule against incitement to violence - CNN. NATO perpetuates military conflict. Therefore politicians who support NATO incite violence. The Twitter account of South Africa's Julius Malema who promotes the killing of white farmers has not been suspended.
The price of the Tesla Semi truck is unknown. From 27 Oct: Tesla’s Electric Semi Is Almost Here, But Elon Musk Hasn’t Shared Some Heavy Details - Forbes: "Tesla doesn’t provide detailed pricing information for the Semi, but industry analysts expect it to be more than double the price of popular big rigs such as Freightliner’s Cascadia, which goes for about $160,000." "Maximizing battery life will be important, given that a Tesla Semi’s price tag may be $400,000". If a battery costs $150/kWh, a 1000kWh Semi battery would cost $150,000. If a diesel truck gets 6mpg and diesel costs $5.12/gallon, the Tesla Semi will pay for the battery after 175,000 miles, excluding the cost of recharging.
Titicaca must be the lake with the best name. "In the old Quechua language, the word Titi can be translated as Puma. While Kaká can be translated in Aymara as “Gray” and in Quechua as “Mountain” or “Rock”. - What does lake Titicaca mean? - Machu Travel Peru.
From 17 June 2020: New Zealand military to oversee quarantine facilities after new COVID-19 case - Reuters. "New Zealand on Wednesday said the defence force will now oversee the country’s quarantine facilities and strengthen border requirements, after a slip up allowed two people with coronavirus to move around the country."
Thursday 1 Dec 2022
The EU wants to set a low price for Russian oil. Russia could just decide not to sell oil to them or anyone else at that price, which would cause the world oil price to shoot up due to a lack of supply. The buyer is the party who needs the product.
Twitter has reinstated senior Irish executive Sinéad McSweeney following generic ‘firing’ email, High Court told - Independent.ie. Email is the modern equivalent of a letter, except in Ireland. Why would any-one try to stay when a company doesn't want you.
"Demand for solar power is heating up in sunny Australia as soaring energy prices and climate change lead residents to seek ways of saving both money and the planet." - Twitter. They still have to pay for backup power from electricity companies, which have to raise prices due to lower sales, so more people install solar panels, leading to higher electricity prices, etc. The price of all energy has seen periods of 10% to 20% growth per year:
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