Wednesday 30 Nov 2022
These Cars Have the Longest Lifespans - The Street.
How Florida Got So Weird - Youtube.
EU warns Musk that Twitter faces ban over content moderation -FT - Reuters.
Why Real Freedom is Financial Independence - Robert Kiyosaki, Patrick Bet-David - Youtube.
"Last year, Germany paid South Africa $800 million to stop using coal. Since then, German imports of South African coal increased eight-fold. Now, Germany is producing more carbon emissions per unit of electricity than South Africa. This is climate imperialism." - Twitter. And that pledge will be a waste of money because South Africa can't afford the imported diesel required as back-up power for wind and solar power.
The obvious question is why iPhone users require a Twitter app to access the internet. According to the interweb: "Twitter Web App is a desktop application allowing you to access Twitter without a web browser. This can be beneficial if you want to avoid using your data allowance or if you want to save battery life on your device. Another benefit of using the Twitter Web App is that it can be customized to suit your needs." - Itgeared.
The average Los Angeles house price (blue) has outperformed the average US house price (red) since 2000. The average US price could include areas with declining economies. The median house sold in Los Angeles was $915K in October.
Tuesday 29 Nov 2022
Why the Tesla Semi is the Future of Trucks - Youtube.
Still missing your inflation relief money? You’re not the only one - La Times. What percentage of the population is receiving money? The state has sent out 10.5 million payments, out of 19 million eligible residents and their families. That is per couple who filed taxes jointly or per individual. The population is 40M, and number of households 13.4M.
There is endless debate over whether the US will have a recession next year. Using total debt (red) as nominal inflation rate, the economy (blue) shrunk in 2020, has partially recovered, but is never fully recovering from the damage done in 2020.
The lowering of interest rates (green) after 1981 led to more money (red) being created without a commensurate increase in economic output (blue).
Monday 28 Nov 2022
"HANKE'S BELIEVE IT OR NOT! Ford Motor Company RECALLED more than 500,000 Bronco Sport and Escapes on Thanksgiving morning. Thanks to faulty manufacturing, cracked fuel injectors are causing the car engines to spontaneously COMBUST." - Twitter. The number of vehicle fires in the US is very high. Looks like poor design and regulation.
"The Danish Public Pension fund (ATP) lost 47.3% during the first three quarters of the year (in the alpha mandate) " - Twitter.
Sunday 27 Nov 2022
"In red the lithium mined to dated. In yellow the lithium needed for clean energy transition. That is a lot" - Twitter.
Tesla Semi completes first 500-mile trip with a full load - Tesla. Was it a flat road? Taking such a heavy vehicle uphill would require a lot of energy, some of which would be recouped downhill. Taking a 81,000lbs truck from sea level to 3000m elevation requires 300kWh, which would leave a range of 350 miles from a 1000kWh battery. Same problem with a diesel truck. An electric truck requires about twice as many stops as a diesel truck to recharge.
"Banks are over leveraged $2 quadrillion dollars in derivatives. A crash is imminent & the economic fallout will be horrific." Twitter.
From 12 May 2022: OTC derivatives statistics at end-December 2021 - BIS: "The notional amount of OTC derivatives declined modestly in the second half of 2021, to $600 trillion." "The gross market value of derivatives contracts – a measure of amounts at risk – stood at $12.4 trillion at end-2021" The US stock market capitalization is only $40 trillion.
First Quarter 2022: Quarterly Report on Bank Trading and Derivatives Activities - OCC.gov. "Derivative notional amounts increased in the first quarter of 2022 by $22.9 trillion, or 12.9 percent, to $200.4 trillion (see table 10). Derivative contracts remained concentrated in interest rate products, which totaled $145.9 trillion or 72.8 percent of total derivative notional amounts (see table 10)."
The internet gives wildly varying figures for oil reserves in the world. World Population Review per billion barrels: Venezuela 304, Saudi Arabia 298, Canada 168, United States 69. The latter means the US only has 9.3 years of oil left.
US E-Commerce Retail Sales was 45% of Advance Retail Sales in Q3, against about 11% in 2008:
Saturday 26 Nov 2022
Raw 1x: Petersen Museum & LA Auto Show on Tesla Full Self-Driving Beta 10.69.3.1 - Youtube.
"This is absolutely huge! Japan retrofitting existing Nuclear power plants with new advanced reactors (likely factory-built) will save $Billions per unit and cut years off construction by doing an engine upgrade instead of building new plants from scratch" Twitter.
Friday 25 Nov 2022
From 26 Jul: Seagate to Launch 30TB Hard Drives in 2023 - ExtremeTech. "The media is heated with a laser to 450 degrees Celsius, then cooled to room temperature in a nanosecond."
Clive Palmer’s Queensland coalmine will harm future generations, court finds in landmark climate ruling - The Guardian.
From 22 Sep 2022: Alberta government faces $3.5B lawsuit from Australian coal company - Calgary CTV News.
From 8 Feb 2019: 'We won': Landmark climate ruling as NSW court rejects coal mine - SMH.
From 8 May 2015: Australia blocks controversial coal mine - DW.
Thursday 24 Nov 2022
How to Profit During a Recession - Robert Kiyosaki, @Dohmen Capital - Youtube.
"Someone from Germany reported me for asking @elonmusk to reinstate the suspended scientists" - Twitter.
"I’m thankful I locked in a 30-year mortgage at 2.99% in 2021" - Twitter. Some-one is subsidising the rate.
Tesco, UK has an annual report of 220 pages. Revenue growth was +6.0% (-0.4% last year), and dEPS 19.12p down from 61.66p.
Gartner Inc (IT), IT Consulting & Other Services, USA. Investor: Q3 revenue +15.2%, dEPS 2.17 up from $1.76, or adjusted $2.41 up from $2.03. Price/earnings = $343/$9.26 = 37.
Wednesday 23 Nov 2022
Building a WINDOW with 3 Huge TVs - Youtube.
Drug triggers immune cells to attack prostate cancer - MedicalXpress.
Discovery could lead to new drugs to block protein that fuels bowel cancer - MedicalXpress.
Twitter's (TWTR) revenue per share ~4x $1.53 ~$6.12. Musk paid $54.20 per share.
Olive oil (red), which is high in monounsaturated fat, is now 2.7x more expensive than sunflower oil (blue) compared to about 6.0x a few decades ago:
Tuesday 22 Nov 2022
France bans Office 365 and Google Workspace in schools - Techzine.
From 16 Nov: This Chinese EV Shows Why Western Brands Are In Trouble... - Youtube.
From 17 Nov: Half of California's New Homes Got Sued, What's the Problem | Larry Salzman - Youtube.
There are some comments about the affordability of houses after prices have shot up. US total mortgage debt to total estimated value of housing is 17.2% in Q2. The main driver for house prices is the other 82.8% who can afford to pay the high price, because of the money they get out of their exisiting home sale.
House prices (blue) are determined by inflation, shown here as total debt (red). In 2009 house prices fell -20%. House prices (blue) are likely to fall again, but will later follow the red line higher.
Monday 21 Nov 2022
Global LNG supplies are ‘sold out’ for years, Japan ministry warns - The Japan Times.
The Las Vegas visitor volume in September was +14.3% higher than a year ago, and -3.5% lower than in 2019 (Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority). Average daily rate was +20.1% higher than a year ago, and +36.5% higher than 2019.
Ex US president Donald Trump's Twitter (@realDonaldTrump) followers has climbed to 87.3M, despite not having Tweeted anything since his account was unlocked. The US president's official account (@Potus) has 27.6M followers, and sitting president Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) has 36.4M followers. Ex president Barack Obama (@BarackObama) has 133.2M followers.
Qatar Suffers Ignominious Defeat In World Cup Opener, Breaking 92-Year Record - Huffpost.
The US Personal Savings Rate (blue) is as low as in 2005 and 2007. When the supply of money from savers is lower than the demand for credit, interest rates (red) must rise. From 2008 to 2016 the savings rate increased despite the Federal Funds Effective Rate going to zero. The growth in credit was low, climbing from about 0% to 4% per year.
This was when the Federal Reserve Bank lent money to the government through Quantitive Easing (QE in green). It appears that QE contributed to more saving (blue), possibly because people received more free money. Every time QE (green) increased, it was followed by a drop in savings (blue) because the extra money created inflation.
Sunday 20 Nov 2022
"We're gonna go extinct. Change my mind." - Twitter.
Saturday 19 Nov 2022
PHOTOS: Record snowstorm buries parts of upstate New York under 6 feet of snow - PBS.
"The rather rare fiscal surplus that the US had in the late 1990s and early 2000s, occurred when the labor force participation rate hit its all-time peak" - Twitter.
"OK, this is bonkers: During a brief window in 1950-51, children could get the Gilbert U-238 Atomic Energy Lab—a kit allowing them to make nuclear reactions at home using ACTUAL RADIOACTIVE MATERIAL" Twitter. Twitter should vote on bringing back home nuclear reactors.
The US population has been living it up on debt as interest rates declined. Total debt to total wages has increased from 3 in 1970 to over 8 now. Either debt is repaid, or savers lose the value of their money. Either the spenders lower their standard of living, or the savers. Since 2009 the savers appear to have lost money, with interest rates near zero.
"Reinstate former President Trump survey" - Elon Musk, Twitter. He presumably means on Twitter, not as US president because the election was stolen. Minority opinions should not be suppressed by majority vote.
Friday 18 Nov 2022
Factset: "For Q3 2022, the blended earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is 2.2%". "The blended revenue growth rate for the third quarter is 10.8% today". Probably a sign of high inflation, and lower volume causing margin compression.
CarMax Breakdown A Bad Sign For Entire Auto Industry - Forbes.
G20 Bali Leaders’ Declaration - Whitehouse. The politicians who cause the problems pretend that they will solve it.
"What a kind woman! 😂 😂" - Twitter.
"Don't underestimate @elonmusk. Person of the Year - Time magazine" - Twitter. This is likely to be peak Elon Musk.
Thursday 17 Nov 2022
Kari Lake declines to concede, says she’s assembling legal team - The Hill.
A US recession is mostly associated with a fall in the Producer Price Index for Commodities from 1913:
This is the US average house price divided by the average annual wage. In September it took 10.4 years of wages to buy a house. If a worker uses one third of the wage to pay for housing, it would take 31 years. According to FRED the average house price was $517,700 in September. In Los Angeles the median house price was $915K in October. (Realtor).
Wednesday 16 Nov 2022
NVIDIA Announces Financial Results for Third Quarter Fiscal 2023 - Nvidia. Revenue down -17%, dEPS $0.27 down from $0.97.
Target Corporation Reports Third Quarter Earnings - Investors. Sales +3.3%, dEPS $1.54 down from $3.04.
FRED has a Producer Price Index for Commodities from 1913. Based on history, the US economic recession has started already, and it will be a major one.
The difference between UK M3 money supply growth (blue) and the official infation rate (red) suggests periods of 10% real growth, if the velocity of money flow remained constant. Such high economic growth is impossible. Based on official economic growth, a lot of money is created that does not contribute to economic activity (lower velocity). Inflation is likely higher, due to lower production.
Some of the UK M3 money supply growth (red) has gone into property appreciation (blue). If the average property price is multiplied by the increased population, and added to the stock market the total comes close to the money supply since 2008. The rise in property values are not reflected in the very low official inflation rate (green). Property prices are now 2.8x greater than the inflation rate since 1987.
UK house prices rose at the same rate as inflation from 1845 to 1906. From 1960 to 2016 housing became a lot more expensive than the inflation basket (blue). The latest statistics deviate (red).
Everything About Irrigation Pivots (Farmers are Geniuses) - Smarter Every Day 278 - Youtube.
Tuesday 15 Nov 2022
Some people regard the Great Depression from 1929 to 1939 as the only difficult time. Saylordotorg: Real GDP declined by -27% from 1929 to 1933. By 1936 the economy was already back at the same level as 1929. Deflation may slow spending, but savers benefit since their money becomes more valuable. From 1929 to 1933 the price of goods declined -24%. People who had money saved in 1929 did well.
Today governments impoverish the population slowly with inflation. Savers lose the value of their money. Below is shown nominal GDP relative to total debt (= money supply). It suggests the US economy declined for a long time from 1981 to 2009. The inflation caused by increased money supply could be delayed. After working for 45 years, the savings of retirees would be worth less.
Market yield on 10 year US treasuries seldom beats the growth in total debt, being the nominal inflation rate, as indicated by a level above zero. The chart would be lifted by real economic growth.
Monday 14 Nov 2022
Electric vehicle makers burning cash, slammed by sky-high costs - Reuters.
Europe's electricity capacity from 2000 to 2020 (Eurostat): Combustible fuels from 340GW to 388GW (427GW in 2012), hydro 135GW to 151GW, wind 12GW to 177GW, solar 0GW to 138GW, nuclear 125GW to 106GW. Net electricity generation (Eurostat) went from 2513TWh in 2000 to 2664TWh in 2020. Electricity use declined from 2008, perhaps due to the higher price as a result of superfluous wind and solar power. A massive increase in wind and solar power, without a reduction in fossil fuel capacity.
"The WEF removed all pages mentioning #FTX from their website!! The "conspiracy theorists" are right again." - Twitter.
Riding America's MOST SCENIC Steam Train! - Youtube. Those were the days. After a long train ride you felt dirty from the smoke covering everything.
Sunday 13 Nov 2022
"SBF's father was an expert in tax shelters and a professor at @StanfordLaw. On an entirely unrelated note, this is the FTX corporate structure:" - Twitter.
"Good Morning from #Germany, which is permanently developing more into a state economy. Even after the end of the pandemic and the energy crisis, the Council of Economic Advisors expects the state's share of GDP to remain at ~50% in the coming years." - Twitter.
Canada's total debt (blue) matches M3 money supply (red), as expected:
Canada's economic output relative to money supply in 2021 is 29% of the peak in the 1970s:
Saturday 12 Nov 2022
"Is Bitcoin the biggest bubble in the history of mankind?" - Twitter.
From 20 Jan 2022: The Notorious Photoshop Troll And His Victims Who Surely Regretted Asking For Photo Edits.
"Reminder: Bernie Madoff ran a $64 billion Ponzi scheme & was the largest fraudster in US history. Madoff was also simultaneously Chairman of the largest securities regulator in the US, the NASDR (now known as FINRA). Madoff also sat on advisory committees at the SEC." - Twitter.
From 9 Nov: $2.04 Billion Powerball Winner Takes Home $628 Million After Taxes - Forbes.
Furthermore, lotteries only pay out a percentage of the income from ticket sales, which varies between 20% and 80% for the US: Liveabout.
Friday 11 Nov 2022
"Yesterday’s sharp rise in stocks shows why it is not wise for investors to be “all out” of markets imo. The one day return from the S&P500 of 5.5% was more than you would earn on a US bond in an entire year." - Twitter. The stock market has been taken over by speculators. It has cease to be a place where companies obtained long term capital.
Australia's iron ore exports shot up since 2005, apparently the reason for the strong A$. Australians can afford to buy anything in the world, expect local housing. Australia Exports of Iron Ore & Concentrates - Trading Economics.
"Breaking! US domestic Uranium production just had its worst quarter ever with only 3,245 lbs U3O8 mined in Q3/2022, down -46% from Q2. Call it Zero vs US Nuclear reactor fuel requirements of 50 Million lbs/year!" - Twitter. Kazakhstan is the biggest producer, and lies just south of Russia.
Twitter brings back 'official' account tag; $8 blue-tick option disappears - Reuters.
Thursday 10 Nov 2022
California sues 3M, DuPont over toxic ‘forever chemicals’ - CNN.
"None of you freeloaders pay so I can't afford the $8 to get verified" - Linux, Twitter.
"NOW - White House: "Regulation of cryptocurrencies is needed." - Twitter. Governments only act after people have lost money in a Ponzi scheme.
"Protests are erupting outside parliament in Athens, Greece. Demonstrators are enraged by soaring energy and food prices." - Twitter. What would Socrates have said about it?
Voting results in the US elections came out quickly initially, but the last seats in the House of Representatives to determine the majority is taking much longer. If this was some third world country, it would be suspicious.
From 2011 Canada's total debt increased without contributing anything to the economic output (GDP). The real economy probably declined by the same extent:
Canada household debt to GDP is at 100% for Q2 of 2022:
For the US it is at 80% for Q4 of 2021:
Wednesday 9 Nov 2022
"Live look at Zuck in the Metaverse today" - Twitter.
Mortgage Fund in Canada Halts Payouts Amid Liquidity Crunch - Wealth Management.
"The USA has the very best technology companies in the world. And yet we can’t figure out real time voting. Please tell me this isn’t by design and in 2 yrs this country will figure it out." - Twitter. Voters still stand in queues whilst online voting has been possible for decades.
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has fallen to $17,500, after trading sideways for five months: Tradingviews.
"Free of chains" - Twitter.
From 7 Nov: Could Oil Reach $200 a Barrel? Some Traders Are Betting on It. - Market Watch.
The Brent oil price (blue) will one day reach $200/barrel due to the devaluation of the dollar (red):
Tuesday 8 Nov 2022
In France, all large parking lots now have to be covered by solar panels - Electrek. "... could generate up to 11 gigawatts". That is midday with the panels at the optimum angle. If the solar panels are specified at a solar power of 1000W/m2, the solar energy is 1000W x 25% x 24 hours x 365 days = 2190kWh/m2 per year. The average solar energy in France is 1300kWh/m2 per year (Solargis). Thus the 11GW panels would provide 11GW x 1300/2190 x 25% x 24hrs x 365 days = 14,300GWh per year. A 1GW nuclear power station provides a maximum of 1GW x 24hrs x 365 Days = 8760GWh per year. The solar panels generate heat of 80%/15% x 14,300GWh = 76,300GWh per year, massively heating up the planet. Backup power must be available 100% of the time for when clouds move over.
FTX Token (FTT) has fallen from $16.1 to $4.4 in a day: Coinmarketcap.
"I just tried signing up for #Twitter blue, but found out that as of today you can't sign up using a laptop. So I tried my #iPhone and was then informed that #PuertoRico is ineligible as of today too. I then tried using @expressvpn but no luck. What's up @elonmusk? I want to pay." - Twitter.
"#Germany's economic advisory council will recommend govt raise taxes on the wealthy to help finance multi-billion Euro relief packages it has agreed to fight energy crisis. Tax revenues could jump >€1tn as early as 2025. Would be a doubling within 20yrs." - Twitter. Like money supply, the rate of tax increases is another indicator of the actual inflation rate.
'As companies rushed to drill, many chewed up some of their best inventory first. Now, they are left with inferior drilling spots likely to produce less oil and to cost more to bring online.' - Twitter.
Plans For New Reactors Worldwide - World Nuclear Association. "About 55 power reactors are currently being constructed in 15 countries, notably China, India, Russia and the United Arab Emirates."
From 21 Oct: Europe faces tough decisions over nuclear power - BBC. "Mr Nguyen warns that across the EU the energy price crisis will probably last until at least 2024."
From 6 Oct: No nuclear power ‘renaissance’ as Europe wrestles energy crisis - Aljazeera.
The price of US agricultural machinery (blue) have shot up. It usually never declines. The price increases became permanent. Compared to total debt (red) the real price has declined the last 70 years.
Monday 7 Nov 2022
Turn Your Backyard Into a Snack Yard With Edible Landscapes - Modern Farmer.
Global warming the ‘latest excuse’ by socialists who ‘hate’ capitalism - Sky News Australia, Youtube. Tuvalu Not Experiencing Increased Sea Level Rise - Research Gate.
"New hope for sickle cell patients as UK trial of lab grown red blood cells begins" - Twitter.
The Breakwave Dry Bulk Shipping ETF (BDRY) went from 4 in 2020 to just over 40 in 2021, and now back to 8: BigCharts.
Concorde XXXL - worlds biggest!! - Youtube.
Sunday 6 Nov 2022
Lithium Market Update: Elevated Prices Are Creating Favorable Dynamics For Miners - Talk Markets.
Saturday 5 Nov 2022
"#Copper inventories at an all time low. That's 3 days of global consumption in visible inventories." - Twitter.
US stock of Distillate Fuel Oil, which includes diesel, is low for the last decade, but not for the decades before that: EIA.
"A favourite joke brilliantly told by legendary Trinidadian stand-up JOHN AGITATION. “A 9yr old boy asks his Father…what is Politics?”" - Twitter.
Friday 4 Nov 2022
Major Music Labels Awarded $47M Over Piracy Suit - Hollywood Reporter. The internet made an end to ye olden days in which the public was limited to songs they heard on radio, and could only buy on records. The internet has created an oversupply of content. In the future, artificial intelligence could create content.
World coal production has stayed near 8000 mllion tonnes since 2011: Enerdata.
The time to buy gold is when gold mines struggle to make a profit. The FTSE Gold Mines index is at 1336. It was 850 in 2015, and 580 in 2000.
"Apparently, some things require bold and decisive actions..." - Twitter. The elephant couldn't find toilet paper, but knows the source of the paper.
The US stock market to economic output (GDP), approximately the price-to-sales ratio, was still high in Q3. Wealth created above economic output was not achieved by producing goods or services. It is not sustainable.
The estimated value of US housing (blue) is bigger than the stock market (red). A rise of house values above economic economic output is also not sustainable. Either values have to decline, or inflation rise to increase nominal gross domestic product (GDP).
Thursday 3 Nov 2022
"Recession Update: Nearly 70% of all yield curves are now inverted." - Twitter.
The US stock market relative to total debt (blue) has hardly declined. The cost of debt, as total US debt x the Federal Funds Effective Rate appears to be about $3600B (red scale on the right) which is the highest level on the chart. Interest rates went to 5.25% in 2007, and 6.52% in 2000. As debt kept growing, a smaller interest rate has a bigger impact.
Tattletales: December 8, 1975 (Emcee Week w/Gene Rayburn, BOB BARKER, & Bobby Van) - Youtube.
"I was fired from Twitter this morning. I was responsible for the timeline refreshing the second you saw a good tweet" - Twitter.
Wednesday 2 Nov 2022
People are endlessly discussing whether or not an economy will go into a recession, based on an inflation rate reported by politicians. Number of vehicles sold suggests the US economy has been in a recession since July 2021, but could be due to a semiconductor shortage. The number is the same as in 1976, despite a larger population. Cars are smaller than in the 1970s.
Heavy weight truck sales has not fallen. Truck sales reach a minimum after a recession (grey band). Mineral prices point to a recession in 2016 when truck sales fell, but was not reported as such.
Tuesday 1 Nov 2022
"A study by @UChicago Professor, Luis R. Martinez concludes that #China's economy is 60% smaller than the official numbers would have us believe. Take a look at the gap between China's official GDP growth rates & Martinez's estimates" - Twitter.
"Many point to falling used car prices as something positive given that it could be part of bringing inflation down. Personally, I would rather be worried since the equity market historically has fallen as long as used car prices have. So, be careful what you wish for..." - Twitter.
The impression is being created that oil companies are making enormous profits. Exxon Mobile's (XOM) net profit margin in Q3 was 18.4% (WTI $93.18), which is not big for a volatile commodity. A year ago it was 9.3% (WTI $70.62). Two years ago it was -1.4% (WTI $40.89). In two years the oil price increase 2.3x, but the profit margin only went from -1.4% to 18.4%. Their costs go up and down with the oil price.
Monday 31 Oct 2022
"Don't worry. Just focus on the long term." - Twitter. The rise is mostly due to money creation.
Something happened after 1980 that resulted in a big decline in the US economy. Company profits (red) went from 4-5% of total debt (money supply) to 2%, which has now recovered to 3.3%. Personal Consumption Expenditure (blue) declined from 43% of total debt in 1959 to 19% now. Interest rates rose until 1980, and has declined since. The decline could be result of a weaker economy, or it could have caused a less efficient use of debt, or more money being printed due to borrowing exceeding saving as a result of low interest rates.
Japan's international debt as ratio of total debt has risen from 1.1% in 2012 to 4.2% in Q1 of 2022. A country can pay its international debt if it has sufficient exports.
The loans provided by the Bank of Japan to the government (blue), compared to M3 money supply (red). If the bank has not borrowed the money (no liability) then it is new money, which would contribute to inflation.
The difference between Japan M3 money supply and the Bank of Japan balance sheet shows a drop. Did they take money out of circulation to prevent the loans by the central bank causing inflation?
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