Monday 31 Oct 2022
"Don't worry. Just focus on the long term." - Twitter. The rise is mostly due to money creation.
Something happened after 1980 that resulted in a big decline in the US economy. Company profits (red) went from 4-5% of total debt (money supply) to 2%, which has now recovered to 3.3%. Personal Consumption Expenditure (blue) declined from 43% of total debt in 1959 to 19% now. Interest rates rose until 1980, and has declined since. The decline could be result of a weaker economy, or it could have caused a less efficient use of debt, or more money being printed due to borrowing exceeding saving as a result of low interest rates.
Japan's international debt as ratio of total debt has risen from 1.1% in 2012 to 4.2% in Q1 of 2022. A country can pay its international debt if it has sufficient exports.
The loans provided by the Bank of Japan to the government (blue), compared to M3 money supply (red). If the bank has not borrowed the money (no liability) then it is new money, which would contribute to inflation.
The difference between Japan M3 money supply and the Bank of Japan balance sheet shows a drop. Did they take money out of circulation to prevent the loans by the central bank causing inflation?
Monday 31 Oct 2022
"Japan went from favored #MMT talking point - "look at how much cheap debt they have" - to one-stop #MMT rebuttal. Japan's debt load means exit from zero rates is impossible, so the Yen is now in an endless devaluation spiral. There is no monetary sovereignty. Only a debt trap..." - Twitter.
From 1 Feb 2022: Peak Oil is Here! World oil production peaked in 2018 - Energy Skeptic.
From 17 Oct: U.S. Permian oil production forecast to hit record in November -EIA - Reuters.
US oil production is lower than in 2020, but historically still high: Trading Economics.
The US stock market shows a correlation with US total debt. US corporate profits as a ratio of total debt at 3.3% is at high levels for the last 40 years, but was higher up to 1980. The US economy is not as profitable as it once was. The profit ratio falls during recessions (grey bands), and fell to 1.32% in 2008. What goes up, must come down. The rise in interest rates needs to stop the debt growth. If the debt denominator stops growing, and percentage profit declines, the stock market should fall.
Sunday 30 Oct 2022
The difference between US government current expenditure (blue) and total receipts (red) is mainly funded by borrowing more. Debt is usually reduced by printing more money. Inflation is likely to last as long as government runs a budget deficit.
Saturday 29 Oct 2022
"1/24. Is Japan in a debt trap and is that trap now snapping shut? A long thread. We start with the Ministry of Finance's "Japanese Public Finance Fact Sheet' (a must read for everyone).", "5/24. Japan's total debt keeps rising because one third of expenditure is financed by bond issuance." - Twitter.
Elon Musk Suggests Multiple Versions of Twitter - The Street. He could charge a fee for controversial words. Every time you use the word "Trump" you have to pay a fee (joke).
"Hateful and racist rhetoric is surging on Twitter in the wake of Elon Musk's takeover as trolls urge each other to push the limits" - Bloomberg Markets, Twitter. Something is always surging on financial media.
The US diesel price (blue) is higher than regular gas (red). Reason - Twitter.
Which currency will be stronger in the future, and retain the value of cash better? The real economic growth and interest rates should also be considered. Usually inflation is close to the growth in M3 money supply, which means low economic growth. Since the 1970s the US has increased total debt (blue) slightly more than Eurozone money supply (green). Japan (purple) and Switzerland (red) have had low money supply growth.
Since 2000, the US (blue) and Eurozone (green) money supply growth have been the same. Switzerland (red) has started to print more money, but still less than the former. The growth in Japan's money supply (purple) has remained low.
Since 2015, the Eurozone (green) has had the highest growth, and Switzerland (red) the lowest growth.
Friday 28 Oct 2022
“Inflation came from nowhere” - European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde - Twitter. She means inflation increased so quickly, the government did not have time to fudge the inflation statistics.
Expected S&P 500 earnings growth 2.2% for Q3: Factset.
"Ligma Johnson had it coming" - Elon Musk, Twitter. CNBC Disgraced by Publishing Interview with Actors Pretending to Be Fired from Twitter by Elon Musk - Tesmanian.
"Trump responds to Elon Musk’s takeover of Twitter" - Twitter. Trump prefers the Truth Social website. "At the moment, Truth Social is available for U.S. users only, but rest assured, we are working hard to make it available in your country." - Truthsocial.
'JUST IN - Twitter to form a "content moderation council," Musk says. "No major content decisions or account reinstatements will happen before that council convenes," he added. - Twitter. The supreme council of the overlords.
"What is Banking all about?" - Twitter.
EU approves effective ban on new fossil fuel cars from 2035 - Reuters. The EU will be like Cuba – full of old fuel cars. How will the electricity for the electric vehicles be generated without CO2?
"This is worse than I thought. The Hang Sang Index has reached 2008 Great Financial Crisis levels." - Twitter.
Australia: Report reveals soaring levels of hunger, the result of rising living costs - WSWS.
As from tomorrow you will be free to air your opinion on Twitter, without the risk of being suspended. One small step for Tweeters or Twits, one big step for mankind. Plus, it has the further benefit of cleansing Twitter of users who do not tolerate opposing views, who are today announcing their departure from Twitter.
NFL star Tom Brady, supermodel Gisele Bundchen confirm divorce - eNCA. Being a football player, he should have stayed with his allocated subspecies which is cheerleaders.
Thursday 27 Oct 2022
"One of the funniest clips in live news history" - Twitter.
"Dear Twitter Advertisers" - Elon Musk, Twitter.
"Meta spent $45 billion on stock buybacks last year at $330 a share. The stock is worth $100 today after a post-earnings crash." - Twitter.
"$AMZN Bezos’ China-goods flea-market delivered a steaming pile of poo. Huge slowdown in growth at AWS to 27%. Non-US sales -5%. Op. margin halved! Outlook way below consensus. And the worst chunk: Now $28.5bn in negative L12M FCF, -$46.2bn w record $17.7bn SBC. WTF?" - Twitter.
Facebook's daily active users in Sep. were 1.98 billion and monthly active users 2.96 billion (Meta investor). The revenue per daily user was $56.0 per year, and monthly user $37.5 per year. In the second quarter, Twitter's revenue per user was 4x$1.18 billion / 237.8 million = $19.8 (Twitter investor). Musk will probably try to squeeze more money out of Twitter.
Satellite photos are a great way to look at the declining size of the artic sea ice: Arctic Sea Ice Minimum Extent - Nasa. The most likely reasons for the higher temperatures are clear cloudless skies, and clean smokeless air. Everybody knows from personal observation that clear skies lead to hot weather. After several days of heat it typically rains, as more moisture evaporated. The heat often causes wild fires, which seed
the clouds. Cities and agricultural land provide less moisture to form clouds, and the switch from wood and coal to natural gas provided less smoke. Over the last few decades the temperature also rose due to solar panels. Wind farms are just more land without lush vegetation, which is needed to retain rainwater, and provide moisture to the air.
Wednesday 26 Oct 2022
Twitter delisting from NYSE effective Friday after Musk completes deal - Seeking Alpha.
"$META Flaming dumpster fire miss, guide even worse. Rev DOWN 4% yet costs up 19%! Users flat, but average ad price -18% y/y." - Twitter.
"Despite arabica coffee hitting a one year low of $1.89 per pound, the price of a cappuccino has risen 7.9% since January in the U.K. This is because coffee is a small part of the cost of delivering your cup of cappuccino." - Twitter.
"The share of #income owned by the bottom 80% continues to decline as current policies extract #wealth and shift it to the top 5% of income earners.
The bottom 80% have the vast majority of #debt." - Twitter. The bottom 80% still vote for politicians who pretend to serve their needs.
BASF to downsize ‘permanently’ in Europe - FT: "World’s biggest chemicals company says high energy costs make region increasingly uncompetitive". What about the cheap green energy? They probably need petroleum for chemicals.
"Renewable energy" - Twitter.
From 19 Oct: The Billionaires' Space Race | Spitting Image - Youtube.
Expected S&P 500 earnings growth for the third quarter was 1.5% on 21 Oct: Factset. So far it looks like the inflation caused by the increase in money supply will permanently lift profits to a higher level.
The interest rates required to bring the supply and demand for credit into balance is another matter. Interest rates are still not attractive for the public to save. The official inflation rate does not make sense, but the interest rate on CDs (blue) doesn't even beat the official inflation rate (red):
Tuesday 25 Oct 2022
"Cosmic magnet" recreated in lab as alternative to rare earths - New Atlas.
"Especially the shock decision that online #education platforms were no longer allowed to pursue #profits raised serious doubts about #China’s stance on ‘#capitalism.’" - Twitter. The poor performance of the Chinese stock market for decades indicated a lack of real private sector growth.
General Motors (GM) results Q1 revenue +56.4%, adjusted dEPS from $1.62 to $2.25. Number of vehicles sold increased 25% (Cox Automotive), thus average revenue per vehicle increased 25%. Vehicles sold were -25% lower than three years ago (GM Authority).
3M Company (MMM) results Q3 revenue -3.6%, dEPS from $2.45 to $6.77, and net profit margin increased from 16.1% to 44.8%.
Coca-Cola Company (KO). results: Q3 revenue +10.2% , dEPS from $0.57 to $0.65. Unit case volume sold was +4% more. If all cases were the same, then selling price inflation was +6.0%, and cost inflation 4.6%.
"Chinese crude imports" - Twitter.
Monday 24 Oct 2022
"Ron Paul: Wreck the Economy Win a Nobel Prize @schiffgold" - Twitter.
"Durch spot natural gas price in negative territory. This does not mean consumers will pay negative prices. Storage is full and many ships wait to offload." - Twitter.
"Stunning chart from @jburnmurdoch. China has reduced the quantity of the economic data that it publishes over time." - Twitter. Just about all countries report impossible inflation figures.
"As Pres. Akufo-Addo passes the begging bowl to the IMF—for the 17th time—I measure #Ghana’s inflation at 143%/yr." - Twitter.
California Wildfires Cancel-Out Two Decades Of Emissions Reductions - Zero Hedge. The cleaner air provides less smoke, so nature must supply the smoke.
Lawyers Prepare To Sue Any State That Requires COVID-19 Vaccination To Attend School - Zero Hedge.
In Q2, US corporate profits relative to economic output (Gross Domestic Product) was near the highest levels since the reign of Tutankhamun.
Sunday 23 Oct 2022
Record-breaking chip can transmit entire internet's traffic per second - New Atlas.
"Deindustrialization of Europe" - Twitter. Politicians still think wind turbines can supply the power.
"This past summer, a top-secret project was in full swing at Honda -- a massive restructuring plan to explore building passenger cars and motorcycles using as few China-made parts as possible." - Twitter.
Saturday 22 Oct 2022
GOP sues Google for labeling its emails as spam, claims ‘blatant bias’ - New York Post.
“Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. has suspended production of advanced silicon for Chinese startup Biren Technology to ensure compliance with US regulations.” - Twitter. Forcing China to enter the same market.
Column: $60,000 ‘casitas’ and giant awnings: Caruso, Bass pitch cheaper homeless units - Los Angeles Times.
China's former leader Hu Jintao escorted out of party congress - Nikkei Asia.
Argentina's M3 money supply in August grew 64% over a year: Ceicdata.
Super Password (October 26, 1984 | #84_0025): Danna/Marvin - Youtube.
Benny Hill - Giving Directions (1986) - Youtube.
When are mortgage interest rates high? Normally the interest rate on savings would at least equal inflation, because the interest is compensation for inflation. The interest rate (blue) on a home loan would be higher than the interest on saving, and thus higher than inflation, as nominally indicated by total debt growth (red). The effect of the sharp rise in money supply (red) in 2020 is still working its way through the economy.
Whenever money supply or total debt growth (red) is much higher than mortgage rates (blue) for a number of years, a period follows in which the two are reversed for a number of years. If history is an indicator, total debt growth (red) should fall, whilst interest rates (blue) stay high.
Total mortgage debt is small compared to the value of housing (20 Sep). Interest rates affect about 16% of house prices.
Friday 21 Oct 2022
The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada, October Update: Prices Plunge at Fastest Pace on Record - Wolf Street. The average house price in Toronto is $1,110,000 – Average House Price in Toronto - The Canadian Magazine of Immigration. When you look at real estate TV shows from a few years ago, it is clear that house prices were much lower, and they never go back to the same level.
"The biggest victims in real estate that I can guarantee will be the real estate agents and mortgage brokers. Everyone in a 3% mortgage is stuck in their current house.
New buyers can’t afford to buy at 7.37% rates because prices are too high. As a result transactions will plummet." - Twitter. Capital gains tax also makes it unattractive to sell, especially after house prices have shot up. Taxes lead to lower economic activity.
"OOPS! #Eurozone total debt jumps >€12tn in Q2 2022" - Twitter.
Elon Musk Plans to Lay Off Nearly 75% of Twitter Employees, or 5,500 Staffers (Report) - Variety. It is not a good idea to tell programmers they will be fired in advance. You don't know what could happen to the code.
The Fed will not save you but will destroy the economy - home builders will get wiped out - car sales - Youtube.
"Biden Admin/Power Elite cooking up ways to destroy @ElonMusk because they can’t control him—just like Trump. Expect them to use every law enforcement and regulatory body as weapons to bring Musk down or force him to surrender. Blatant authoritarianism." - Twitter. Trying to keep Trump supporters off Twitter.
Zac Brown Band Denied Entry into Canada, Cancels Concert in Vancouver - People. "Zac and his band and crew were detained in Vancouver for two hours because a few of his crew members had infractions that had been expunged years and years ago"
Thursday 20 Oct 2022
BOJ Announces Unscheduled Bond Buying as Key Yield Broke Ceiling - Yahoo Finance. "The yield on the 10-year note briefly rose 0.5 basis points to 0.255% Thursday".
US elections for the House of Representatives and Senate will be held 8 November 2022. Is the release of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) an attempt to bring down inflation (EIA)? The oil reserves excluding the SPR is relatively high (EIA).
"Lol, the lettuce wins!" - Twitter.
Biden and his jerry can - Twitter.
Texas sues Google over alleged ‘indiscriminate’ biometric data collection - CNN.
Wednesday 19 Oct 2022
'Devastating consequences' as new Swedish government scraps environment ministry - Euronews.
"What's really happening with your money? @spomboy breaks down the state of our economy & points the finger at the Fed for leading us toward a recession. The full interview streams exclusively on @foxnation – plus: unlock free sign-up offers only at TuckerCarlson.com" - Twitter.
Arizona fires back at Biden admin’s demand it remove shipping containers filling gaps at border - Fox. Democrats hoping to get the votes of naturalized citizens?
"On October 11 we extracted the largest single catch for System 002 to-date; 10,086 kg of plastic removed from the Great Pacific Garbage Patch after only 6.5 days, bringing us to a total of 145,518 kg extracted so far." - Twitter.
Tuesday 18 Oct 2022
The Netherlands to leave embattled Energy Charter Treaty - Politico.
"The inventors of insulin sold their patents for $1 in 1923. And yet, the price of insulin in America has gone up by over 1,000% since 1999 causing 1.3 million diabetics in our country to ration insulin last year. It should not cost 10x more for insulin than it does in Canada." - Twitter.
From 1 Sep: Leilani Dowding told by bank 'Government needs to know' what she's spending money on | Mark Steyn - Youtube.
US personal savings up to 2021 (red) make up a small portion of bank deposits (blue).
Monday 17 Oct 2022
"Wind farm could power new hydrogen gas plant" - Twitter. BBC Science is a contradiction in terms. Using hydrogen to store electricity is inefficient, and distributing gas tanks is expensive.
"Top 1% of Americans (by wealth) own 53.1% of all stocks in United States; top 10% own almost 89% and bottom 50% own less than 1%" - Twitter.
"Japan Bullet Train" - Twitter.
Sunday 16 Oct 2022
From about 1981 there was a big decline in US GDP relative to total debt (blue) until 2009, as interest rates declined. Then after 2009, the GDP to debt ratio (blue) went sideways as interest rates remained constant near zero. What has happened since 2009 is that government's share of total debt (red) increased. Government can no longer boost the economy by increasing debt, and interest rates have risen. Either they print more money, raise taxes, or cut spending. Politicians rarely cut spending.
Saturday 15 Oct 2022
Judge Throws Journalist in JAIL For 22 Days for 'Anti-Mandate' Protest Reporting - Youtube. Madness.
"I assure you, an educated fool is more foolish than an uneducated one." -- Moliere - Twitter. It is when oppressed people get an education, that they realise they are oppressed and revolt.
Friday 14 Oct 2022
"Where are we on this chart?" - Twitter.
Thursday 13 Oct 2022
Researchers find inconsistencies in studies evaluating small hydropower projects - Techxplore. "Because small hydropower impacts are so site-specific, our study really highlights a need for more investigations of small hydropower costs and benefits—not only financial, but also cultural and ecological—in more locations that use consistent and comparable metrics, assumptions, and inputs," Klein says.
Minority farmers sue US over repealed government relief program - CNN.
FCC could ban all new purchases of Huawei and ZTE telecom gear - CNN. "in an expanding crackdown against perceived national security risks from China". This website is uploaded with a Hauwei modem.
There is a wild claim that lower interest rates lead to higher economic growth. Interest rates should be chosen according to the demand for credit. If interest rates (red) are too low, more money (green) must be created to satisfy the demand for credit, which leads to inflation. Economic output declines for the same money in circulation (blue).
Until 1980 interest rates (red) were much higher, and economic output to debt (blue) declined slowly. When interest rates (red) go lower and lower until they reach zero, it can't be a sign of a healthy economy. It suggests a lower demand for credit, and less economic activity.
Wednesday 12 Oct 2022
France to shut off household smart water heaters REMOTELY to avoid blackouts as nuclear reactors remain offline and energy prices spike 28% - Sott. Governments switching off water heaters remotely during peak electricity consumption is not unusual.
Self-powered sensor changes color to warn if frozen foods have thawed - New Atlas.
Tattletales: December 26, 1974 (Jimmie Walker, Don Galloway, Lynda Day George, et al) - Youtube.
Tuesday 11 Oct 2022
"The French government has announced its plan to fight #inflation by spending 100 billion euros to help the people afford to pay higher prices. This is like trying to lose weight by eating more junk food. When inflation gets worse the government will spend more to fight harder." - Twitter. The only question is which part of the population will pay for the €100B.
"On today's themarthablog.com my donkeys get their teeth checked and floated. Find out why this is such an important part of their routine care management program." - Twitter.
"A zoo where visitors are caged" - Twitter.
Monday 10 Oct 2022
"Desperate Europeans Return to the World's Oldest Fuel for Warmth" - Twitter. That is the best fuel for the planet, because that is what happens in nature. Some carbon-dioxide absorbed out of the air is stored in the charcoal. Ash contains 5-30% carbon (Wikipedia). The smoke seeds the clouds, and the rain completes the cooling cycle, and provides water for the plants to grow.
"I like how Bernanke is winning the Nobel Prize in economics because he completely broke price discovery and the economic cycle by engaging in the most aggressive easing ever at the time. Helping the rich get much richer while undermining the core construct of capitalism: failure." - Twitter.
Made-in-America - The White House (no date). That lowers the standard of living, by forcing people the pay for more expensive labour. If imports decline then exports must also decline. The profitable jobs in exports are replaced by unprofitable jobs in local production.
"Airdropped armed robot dog tested in China. The future has arrived and it doesn't look fun." - Twitter.
California's drought withers tomatoes, pushing grocery prices higher - Reuters. The first plague was quantitive easing, then the Covid disease, the Ukraine war, the energy shortage, hurricane Ian, and now it is drought.
Sunday 9 Oct 2022
Is Dow Theory Saying Game Over for Stock Market? - See It Market.
"As the dollar strengthens, many foreign central banks sell Treasuries. They use a counter-cyclical currency management strategy." - Twitter. Other countries might also sell reserves held in the US to support their declining currencies.
EGYPT! A GRAND TOUR BEGINS with @Curtis Ryan Woodside @The Chateau Diaries & @Manor and Maker - Youtube.
Saturday 8 Oct 2022
Germany needs electricity production of about 600TWh (Germany’s energy consumption and power mix in charts). The maximum energy available from permanent sources: nuclear 71TWh, lignite 178TWh, coal 208TWh, gas 267TWh, oil 39TWh, hydro 43TWh, biomass 75TWh = total 881TWh, which is enough to supply all the energy. Energy supplied by intermittent sources: wind 71TWh, solar 33TWh. To what extent are the turbines of the permanent energy sources continuously spinning whilst power is supplied by wind and solar? Governments like to show on charts how green energy has increased. The other sources could be permanently on, but just not connected.
"$META - a poorly-executed buyback program. $48B spent in the past year at avg. price of $303. Stock is currently $133. And buybacks decelerated as the stock fell." - Twitter.
The WTI oil price (brown) relative to high and low levels of US total debt as nominal inflation indicator (green):
US Consumer Credit Owned and Securitized is 5% of total debt (nominal inflation), and not unusually high:
Consumer credit relative to total wages has increased over many decades, and is now 41%:
Friday 7 Oct 2022
"Melbourne City Council has become the sixth city in the world to appoint “chief heat officers” to deal with “life-threatening” climate change effects" - Twitter. The photo of Melbourne illustrates one of the reasons for higher temperatures. Learn About Heat Islands - US Environmental Protection Agency: "Trees, vegetation, and water bodies tend to cool the air by providing shade, transpiring water from plant leaves, and evaporating surface water, respectively. Hard, dry surfaces in urban areas – such as roofs, sidewalks, roads, buildings, and parking lots – provide less shade and moisture than natural landscapes and therefore contribute to higher temperatures."
Thursday 6 Oct 2022
Bank of England official says $1 trillion in pension fund investments could’ve been wiped out without intervention - Marketwatch. One reason why governments try to prop up the bond and stock market.
Porsche overtakes Volkswagen as Europe's most valuable carmaker - Reuters. Volkswagen sold 8.6 million vehicles in 2021. Porsche sold 302,000.
From 10 Sep: Stunning ! Gigantic ! 102kg xxxl RC Airbus A-380 / scale model turbine jet airliner / flight demo ! - Youtube.
Bikes in the Netherlands! Simply Amazing. Simple. Easy. =) - Rotterdam Netherlands - ECTV - Youtube.
Wednesday 5 Oct 2022
OPEC+ agrees deep oil production cuts, Biden calls it shortsighted - Reuters. Also good for coal. Coal is now priced according to its energy content.
"grid scale lithium ion battery storage is one of the dumbest things in the world imho" - Twitter. Besides the cycle limits to a battery, to store electricity for heating in a battery is absurd. The big electricity consumption in a household is for heating (space heater, underfloor heater, water heater, oven, etc).
Tuesday 4 Oct 2022
"Elon's first day at twitter..." - Twitter.
Nation’s biggest renewable energy auction starts today - NSW.gov.au. Peak electricity demand in New South Wales is 14GW (Australia Energy Regulator). The price of electricity is more likely to double.
Australia's energy policy keeps getting 'sillier and sillier' - Youtube.
"Two decades to add +93% in capacity and +1.8% in production. This is the Green model the globalists are trying to pursue." - Twitter.
"How the Dutch build a tunnel under a highway in one weekend" - Twitter.
In Aug the EU price of natural gas (red) was slightly higher than the US price (blue):
There is much excitement about reserve banks "pivoting". UK M3 money supply growth flattened out from 2010 to 2015, and from 2018 tot 2020. A decline in money supply is unlikely. That is what happened during the Great Depression. Thus reserve banks will not be able to stop the inflation they have already caused, but the money supply needs to stop growing.
Monday 3 Oct 2022
Why Aptera will succeed! - Youtube.
Sunday 2 Oct 2022
Increasing evidence a common virus triggers type 1 diabetes - Atlas.
"How to effectively slice a pomegranate" - Twitter. If only the flowers would turn into fruit.
Saturday 1 Oct 2022
Man stays in houseboat during hurricane. See where he ended up - Youtube.
The Sneaky Trick in the Inflation Reduction Act - Youtube.
From 3 Feb 2020: Brothers of Italy's Leader Targets Germany in Euro Cash Demand - Youtube.
Protecting Florida from the storm surge of a hurricane is difficult given the large area of land within 10 feet of sea level: USGS. Florida is 170,000 km2. A third of the Netherland's 41,500 km2 is below sea level. The Mose project in Venice started in 2003 and due for completion in 2025.
Tesla reveals humanoid robot that will cost less than $20,000 - Nikkei. That is without the autonomous software.
The Brent oil price in US$, relative to US total debt as nominal inflation rate, was at 12.3 in Q2. It is now -20% lower, which takes it to 9.7. A level around 8.5 is popular. When OPEC limits output, the level is more like 20.
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