Saturday 30 April 2022
' "It's almost a mania of speculation that we now have," says legendary investor Charlie Munger on stock market manipulation. ' - Twitter.
Friday 29 April 2022
"The S&P 500 is down 13.3% in the first 82 trading days of 2022, the 3rd worst start to a year in history." - Twitter. The other top years don't sound good: 1932, 1939, 1942.
The US stock markets are making serious down moves. The Nasdaq 100 ended below the previous 13,000 support.
"Could the Fed's rate hikes lead to a federal debt crisis?" - Twitter. If the Fed keeps interest rates low, the demand for credit will continue to exceed the supply from savers. The Fed will have to provide the shortfall, which adds more money to the supply, and the resultant inflation makes saving even less attractive.
Even The Liberals Now Think The Border Crisis Is Out Of Control!! - Youtube.
"Elon Musk told banks that agreed to help fund his $44 billion acquisition of Twitter that he could crack down on executive and board pay at the social media company in a push to slash costs, and would develop new ways to monetize tweets, sources said" - Twitter. He will send in his crack team - a team on crack.
Thursday 28 April 2022
Amazon (AMZN) Investor Relations: Q1 revenue +7.3%, dEPS down from $15.79 to -$7.56 loss, the share price is $2891.93, compared to revenue per share of ~4x$229 ~ $916. Net profit margin was 7.1% for 2021.
Apple (AAPL) smartphones, Investor Relations: Q2 revenue +8.6% (+53.6% last year), dEPS up from $1.40 to $1.52, price/earnings $163.64/$6.16 = 27, net profit margin 25.6% (26.5% last year). It looks like the transition of users to 5G iphones is coming to an end. Product sales grew by 6.6%, and service sales grew 17.3% to 20% of revenue.
"The Twitter board’s decision to sell to @elonmusk makes the deal the 2nd largest takeover of all time" - Twitter.
Twitter (TWTR) Investor Relations: Q1 revenue +15.9% (+28% last year), dEPS up from $0.08 to $0.61, or non-GAAP dEPS up from $0.16 to $0.90, latter price/earnings ~$49.50/~4x$0.90 ~13.8, non-GAAP net margin = 63%. Elon Musk's offer price doesn't look expensive now.
When you Google "Musk Twitter", a list of negative comments appear from the main media, like Musk is not supposed to disparage Twitter while trying to buy it. He's doing it anyway. - NBC News.
There is big excitement over the fall in the Japanese Yen (green down). The US prints more money than Japan, so the Yen should strengthen against the US dollar (green up), unless the US has higher economic growth than Japan. Japan had a trade deficit until Feb, which means net capital inflow. The Yen is not weakening due to capital ouflow. There is some correlation with exports (blue). The Yen could be weak due to low exports.
Wednesday 27 April 2022
Qualcomm (QCOM), semiconductors. Investor Relations: Q2 revenue +41% (+62% last year), dEPS up from $1.53 to $2.57, price/earnings = $148.19/$9.77 = 15.2. Sales was flat for a decade until the Sep 2021 rise. Profits are now double what they made for a decade.
Ford Motor (F) Investor Q1 revenue -4.8%, dEPS down from $0.81 to a -$0.78 loss. Price/sales = $14.62/~4x$8.60 ~0.43. Sales have not grown for more than a decade.
"Keep an eye on this. Heavy truck sales just contracted by 23% YoY. Since 1967, every time we experienced this rate of decline, a recession followed." - Twitter.
"Next I’m buying Coca-Cola to put the cocaine back in" - Twitter.
Meta Platforms (FB) was Facebook, Investor Relations: Q1 revenue +7% (+46% a year ago), dEPS down from $3.30 to $2.72, price/earnings = $174.95/~4x$2.72 ~ 16, net profit margin = 26.7% (+37.4% a year ago).
"U.S. trade goods deficit widened to record in March, $125.3 billion vs. $105 billion est. & $106.3 billion in prior month … imports +11.5%; exports +7.2%" - Twitter.
New cocoa processing method produces fruitier, more 'flowery' dark chocolate - Phys.org.
The decision by FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) to remove the gold price from their website was strange. Elon Musk should take over the Federal Reserve. Relative to US money supply, gold should rise over the next few years: Inflationchart.
Tuesday 26 April 2022
Microsoft Corp (MSFT) software, results: Q3 revenue +18.4%, dEPS up from $2.03 to $2.22, net profit margin = 33.9% (37.0% a year ago), price/earnings = $270.22/$9.58 = 28.
Twitter Suffers Mass Deactivations After Elon Musk Takeover - Hollywood Reporter.
Alphabet Class A (GOOGL), Alphabet Class C (GOOG) results: Q1 revenue +23% (+34% last year), dEPS from $26.29 to $24.62, net profit margin 24% (32% a year ago), price/earnings = $2373/$110.99 = 21.
General Motors (GM) results Q1 revenue +10.8% (lower than 2018), EPS from $2.03 to $1.35.
No one knows what Musk's Twitter takeover means for the company - Engadget. The Twitter algorithm could be improved. At the moment Tweets are posted randomly, with repeats, unless a user replies with a comment, clicks on the love icon, or right clicks and says "Not interested in this Tweet". Another way to indicate personal preference could be useful.
From 25 Feb: The World's PREMIER Slot Car Race Track! A Day with Jimmy Attard (Short Documentary) - Youtube.
The iron ore price is now $152.47. It has mostly traded above US Money Supply growth (red).
Monday 25 April 2022
NASA’s New AI Will Terrify Putin - Medium.
Judge orders Cushman & Wakefield to comply with Trump property subpoenas for NY attorney general probe - CNBC.
Twitter accepts Elon Musk’s $44B acquisition offer - Techcrunch.
"Yesss!!!" - Elon Musk on Twitter.
From 14 April: "Will endeavor to keep as many shareholders in privatized Twitter as allowed by law" - Twitter.
From 26 March: "Given that Twitter serves as the de facto public town square, failing to adhere to free speech principles fundamentally undermines democracy. What should be done? Is a new platform needed?" - Twitter.
From 25 March: "Free speech is essential to a functioning democracy. Do you believe Twitter rigorously adheres to this principle?" - Twitter.
Coca-Cola Company (KO). results: Q1 revenue +16% (+4.9% last year), dEPS from $0.52 to $0.64 ($0.64 two years ago), price/earnings = $65.61/$2.37 = 28, dividend yield in 2021 = $1.68/$65.61 = 2.6%. It looks like they benefitted from the jump in money supply, but if the growth stop, the share price will be expensive.
Activision Blizzard (ATVI) games vir consoles, cellphones and PCs. results: Q1 revenue -22% (-1.1% over two years), EPS from $0.79 to $0.50, non-GAAP EPS from $0.98 to $0.64. The price/earnings = $78.32/$3.16 = 25. What happened to the 18 Jan Microsoft offer of $68.7B? U.S. regulators seek more info on Microsoft’s $68.7B Activision Blizzard acquisition - GeekWire: "Activision Blizzard said in the filing that it expects the deal to be completed in Microsoft’s fiscal year ending June 30, 2023, which is the same timeline that the companies gave in the initial January announcement."
"Palm oil is surging... The world's biggest exporter of palm oil, Indonesia, has now banned palm oil exports... Supermarkets in the UK have started limiting cooking oil purchases." - Twitter. Palm oil is linked to the spread of cancer, so just as well.
Sunday 24 April 2022
"Valuations of global equities have already fallen sharply. But even so, global market capitalization is still 127% of global GDP, well above the 100% threshold that Warren Buffett said was problematic." - Twitter.
What doomed CNN+? How rival strategies and executive intrigue fueled the streaming service’s rapid demise - CNBC.
Friday 22 April 2022
"3. Tech-heavy insider buying fund, INSAX, continuing its plunge (crash?). Not a good omen for the rest of the market... " - Twitter.
Future of Netflix and Streaming - Nextbigfuture.
Johnny Depp trial - live: Actor compares fight with Amber Heard to ‘Disco Bloodbath’ - Independent UK. Whatever is happening in this courtcase, they deserve Oscars for attracting more attention than any Hollywood movie.
Thursday 21 April 2022
Elon Musk says Tesla’s humanoid Optimus robot ‘will be worth more than the car business’ - CNBC. People don't like humanoids.
"The cover of The Economist" - Twitter.
"Harry's Farm update plus why food prices are going up so fast" - Twitter.
Wednesday 20 April 2022
"Bill Ackman, Pershing Square Capital Management founder who less than 3mths ago bought $1.1bn in Netflix stock, has sold his entire stake in comp at major loss of >$430mln. Netflix shares fell 35.1% on Wed, recording their worst day since 2004, after shocking subscriber numbers." - Twitter.
Blood-brain barrier–penetrating single CRISPR-Cas9 nanocapsules for effective and safe glioblastoma gene therapy - Science Advances.
Tuesday 19 April 2022
Netflix (NFLX) results Q1 revenue +9.8%, dEPS down from $3.75 to $3.53, P/E = $348.61/$11.02 = 32, price/sales = $348.61/~4x$17.37 = 5.0. The share price has already declined from a peak of $690.31 in Oct.
"Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) threatens Twitter after it activated “poison pill” plan to prevent Elon Musk’s acquisition: “We’re gonna be looking at ways the state of Florida potentially can be holding these Twitter board of directors accountable for breaching their fiduciary duty.” " - Twitter. The order of priority for most companies: management, employees, creditors, and lastly shareholders.
Mitsubishi Heavy aims to build 'reactor-on-a-truck' by 2030s - Nikkei Asia.
Deliveroo found guilty of abusing riders' rights in France - Reuters.
Germany & The EU Are In SERIOUS Trouble... - Youtube.
It is difficult to find the total spending of all governments in the European Union. According to Eurostat: "In 2020, total government expenditure in the EU amounted to 53.1% of gross domestic product (GDP)". This is why Europe including the UK is in trouble. The EU is going the same way as Italy or Greece before the EU was created. In the US it is 35%.
Gov.uk: UK "TME (Total Managed Expenditure) was £1,115.0 billion in 2020-21, an increase of 26.1 per cent on the previous year." It works out to 52% of UK economic output (GDP) of £2143.2B as provided on the chart.
Monday 18 April 2022
Bank of America (BAC) Q1 revenue was +1.8% higher, shares in issue down -6.3%, and dEPS $0.80 compared to $0.86 a year ago (Bank of America). With M2 money supply growing between 12.4% at the beginning of Jan, and 10.7% at the end of Feb, the bank doesn't appear to be handling their fair share of the extra money in circulation.
“we think the positive effects of inflation on earnings growth have reached their peak and are now more likely to be a headwind to growth, particularly as inflation forces the Fed to remain max hawkish” - Twitter.
Get a whopping 2TB of fast SSD storage for just $166 - PC World.
Saturday 16 April 2022
"I hear there are people that still think the Fed is serious about fighting inflation" - Twitter.
The FRED chart below shows US imports (red) and exports (blue) relative to economic output (GDP).
Some people, like Donald Trump, create the impression that the US doesn't manufacture anymore, and everything is imported. The difference between imports (red) and exports (blue) is the extent to which the US pays for imports with capital inflow, which is 27% of imports at present. US exports did increase about 2.4x from the 1960s to the 2010s. The reason some goods are no longer manufactured in the US, is because it produces products and services that are more profitable, like software, or pocketing just the profit on exclusive goods like Apple smart phones (Imported cheaply, exported at a much higher price).
The real problem is protection from cheap imports, through import duties, subsidies and local sourcing by government. It strengthens the dollar, which makes US exports more expensive, and imports cheaper. This attracts more capital, worsens the trade deficit, decreases manufacturing, and encourages other countries to replace expensive US exports.
Friday 15 April 2022
After Blowing $328 Billion on Share Buybacks since 2017, JPMorgan, BofA, Wells Fargo, Citi, Goldman Sachs Stocks Drop to 2017 Levels - Wolf Street.
'Elon Musk: "Twitter has extraordinary potential. I will unlock it." ' - Twitter. If Elon Musk wants to extract sufficient income from Twitter to justify the high price he wants to pay for it, it will probably ruin user experience. The $42B bid divided by 217M monetizable daily active users (Finances Online) means generating $194 per user over time. The percentage of users who would be willing to pay for the service is probably small.
Thursday 14 April 2022
"The reason bond yields are rising nearly every day is that so few people are willing to buy. But the Treasury is selling record quantities. The #Fed isn't buying, so private investors won't lend for less than #inflation. So bonds will keep falling until real yields are positive!" - Twitter.
"S&P 500’s real dividend yield has plunged to -7.2%" - Twitter. Share prices need to decline to where growth plus dividend yield and share buybacks beat inflation.
Elon Musk offers to buy Twitter - CNN. The offer is at $54.20 compared to revenue per share of only $6.36. It shows that Twitter, like many other tech companies, is a monopoly.
Elon Musk Goes Hostile With $42 Billion Twitter Bid; Saudi Prince Alwaleed 'Rejects' Offer - The Street.
Interest rates rise until the higher cost of debt impacts the economy. It took up to three years after interest rates peaked (red) for unemployment to peak (blue). If US interest rates rise, and peak say in 2023, then unemployment might only peak by 2026.
Wednesday 13 April 2022
Ford Has Bad News For Tesla, Rivian and GM - The Street.
Some people in the US are already seeing visions of deflation. Deflation requires for the money supply (red) to shrink, that is go down on the chart, or real economic growth is required. It is not impossible, but has not happened for at least 63 years. Since 1959 M2 money supply growth exceeded the CPI (Consumer Price Index) by 3.3% per year. The inflation caused by the sharp rise in money supply must still work its way through the economy.
For those people who are naive enough to believe the official inflation rate, the last time the US had deflation for more than a year was from 1921 to 1933. What will happen next is that consumers lower their standard of living, the government will adjust the inflation basket accordingly, and inflation will magically decline.
Tuesday 12 April 2022
"Chart of the Week - The “SCANNZ Economies“ " - Twitter.
What are the signs leading up to hyperinflation? A government has three source of income: taxation, loans in the form of government bonds, and the printing of more money. Hyperinflation happens when a government prints more money every year to overcome the inflation caused by the money printed the previous year. The economy is weakened by the increase in inflation, which results in government's tax income declining in real terms. Governments print money anyway. Hyperinflation is just an accelerated version.
In the case of Turkey (appropriately named) the annual increase in money supply (red) was about 50% of government expenditure (blue) until 2019. In 2020 and 2021 the government printed a lot more money (red), which on average appears to match government spending (blue).
In the US, the annual increase in M2 Money Supply (red) was much less than the annual Federal Government Expenditure (blue) up to 2019. The contribution from printed money (red) has increased every decade. Tax receipts (green) paid for about half of the expenditure, but has decreased over time. It is not a good sign. In 2020 a big portion of the expenditure (blue) was apparently funded by printing money (red). The questions going forward is whether government expenditure (blue) will decline, and the money supply increase (red) return to past levels.
Monday 11 April 2022
From 26 Nov 2013: Where Does Money Come From? - Hidden Secrets Of Money Ep 5 - Mike Maloney - Youtube.
Sunday 10 April 2022
Breaking news from the Augusta National golf course in Georgia is that Tiger Woods did not win the Masters. Repeat Tiger Woods did not win. When will a guy called Bubba win again?
If you want to edit a comment in Twitter, you can copy the comment, delete, paste as a new comment, and edit.
Where did the wonderful US money supply growth go without causing inflation? This chart compares M2 Money Supply (red) with Personal Spending on Education (green), Personal Spending on Dental Services (purple), and Copper and Brass Mill Shapes (blue). Relative to 1959, real commodity prices declined, whilst real service costs increased. The bad news is people spent less money on their teeth in 2020.
People spent 6x more on dental services in 2021 than the price of lumber compared to 1929. Given the standard of dental care in 1929 that is not surprising.
Saturday 9 April 2022
Why Czech Men WHIP WOMEN on Easter | Visiting Prague Easter Market- Youtube.
William Shatner Encourages Exploration of “Spooky” Metaverse as Collection of ‘Star Trek’ NFTs Sell Out in Minutes - The Hollywood Reporter.
"Convert Twitter SF HQ to homeless shelter since no one shows up anyway" - Twitter.
"Most of these “top” accounts tweet rarely and post very little content. Is Twitter dying?" - Twitter. Elon Musk is going to whip these users into shape.
"Forget the yield curve, I’m suddenly worried about the space-time continuum" - Twitter.
US food prices (blue) is cheap relative to money supply (red), and increases were below wage increases (green) for 10 years:
Long term, US food prices (blue) match wages (green) because the inflation index monitors the products workers can afford:
Friday 8 April 2022
Your toilet paper roll is slimming down - CNN.
‘Extraordinary’ W boson particle finding contradicts understanding of how universe works - The Guardian.
Rejuvenation of woman's skin could tackle diseases of aging - BBC.
Tesla opens Texas Gigafactory as China factory stays shut - Nikkei Asia. "Austin plant follows Berlin factory as EV maker works to increase deliveries by 50%". At a price/earnings of $1057.26/~4x$2.05 ~129, and price/sales of $1057.26/~4x$15.74 ~16.8 a lot of growth is already priced in.
Film Academy Bans Will Smith From Oscars Ceremony for 10 Years - The Hollywood Reporter. He will be sent back to the cotton plantations.
Thursday 7 April 2022
Electric Vehicles Are 25% More Expensive Than a Year Ago - The Street.
Elon Musk Opens Tesla’s ‘Giga Texas’ That He Says Is The Biggest U.S. Plant - Forbes.
Tesla is going to make a new futuristic-looking electric vehicle as a ‘dedicated robotaxi’ - Electrek.
After GM, Ford, FCA Abandoned Cars, Toyota, Now #1 in the US, Rubs In their Monumental Blunder Publicly - Wolf Street.
U.N. suspends Russia from human rights body, Moscow then quits - Reuters.
Donald Trump should be held in contempt for ignoring subpoena -NY attorney general - Reuters.
The good news is, the price of lead has not increased since 2006 (Trading Economics). The price of lead-acid batteries should stay the same. Lithium batteries are superior for repeated discharging en recharging, but for occasional use lead-acid batteries work out cheaper. The price of lithium cabonate in China has shot up from 38,700 yuan/ton in 2020 to 496,500 yuan/ton (Trading Economics). The price should fall back at some point.
US house prices went up (blue), mortgage rates came down (green), and the interest only cost of the debt (infinite term), as the product of the two, remained around $14,000 per year since 1980 (red). Today's dollars are worth much less than in 1980, making the interest portion of the loan much less.
If you add the repayment of the capital amount, to the interest on half the house price as the approximate mortgage payment (red) it has a similar slope to the average wage (blue):
Wednesday 6 April 2022
Facebook and Mark Zuckerberg Money Project in the Works - The Street.
Siemens Gamesa Shares Drop as Turbine Parts Fall in the Sea - Bloomberg.
The cost of corporate debt is shown here as some arbitrary Corporate Bond Yield x Corporate Debt (blue). Since 2009, due to low interest rates, the cost of the debt (blue) increased less than the Corporate Debt (red). The cost of debt peaks at recessions (grey bands).
Euro M3 money supply growth (blue) represents nominal inflation. The official inflation rate (red) is a joke. It is only available from 1997. Perhaps the inflation basket changed. If money flow remained constant, the difference between the two would be real economic growth. It reached peaks of 10-12%. It is impossible economic growth. According to the EU government people didn't actually use the extra money they printed, they just looked at it. Whenever money supply increases, some people are losing the value of their money. Savers probably lost the value of their savings. Wages probably didn't keep up with inflation, so the price of the products they produced also didn't increase as much.
Tuesday 5 April 2022
Poland blocks EU move to sign up to minimum corporate tax - FT.
"The 30yr fixed mortgage rate just passed 5% for the 1st time since '11. Thus, w/ the avg. home price at $511K today, vs. $408K last yr, & the 30yr fixed mortage rate at 5.02% today vs. 3.32% a yr ago, the avg. cost of a mortage is $2,138/month now vs. $1,129a yr ago (+101%). WOW!" - Twitter.
The US Individual Income Tax Rate (blue) was as high as 95%. The good old days. To make up for lower taxes, the government borrowed more, shown as Federal Debt as Percent of Gross Domestic Product (red). The debt must be paid for in the future either by increasing taxes or printing money, both of which create more inflation. Make taxes great again.
Monday 4 April 2022
Twitter shares soar more than 26% after Elon Musk takes 9% stake in social media company - CNBC. Will Musk rule over Earth and Mars?
US job openings (blue) versus Federal Reserve Total Assets (QE = Quantitive Easing in red):
Sunday 3 April 2022
My “Wealth Disparity Monitor” of the Fed’s Money-Printer Era: Holy Moly. April Update of the Greatest Economic Injustice in Recent History - Wolf Street.
"Follow the cycle … Housing>Orders>Profits>Employment." - Twitter.
Tesla has delivered a record-breaking number of vehicles in the first quarter of 2022 - Business Insider SA. The 310,048 vehicles is 1.24M annualized, which beats Mazda in the 15th position: Worldwide Car Sales. Growth is +67.7% over a year, and the German factory has just started producing. The only other manufacturer in the top 15 that had sales growth over two years is Changan (+31%).
Cucumber crisis: surging energy prices leave British glasshouses empty - Reuters.
Saturday 2 April 2022
“Window Dressing” Keeps The Bulls Alive - RIA.
Friday 1 April 2022
Dozens of Stocks Suspended in Hong Kong Due to Problems in Accounts - Real Money. "Last year, there were 57 companies from all sectors that failed to report results on time in Hong Kong". There are 2538 listed companies on the Hong Kong exchange.
"The average family health insurance premium in the US has more than tripled since the "affordable" care act was signed into law back in 2010." - Twitter.
Amazon workers on Staten Island vote for company’s first unionized warehouse in U.S. - CNBC. They will be replaced by robots.
The US just announced that cars will have to be a lot more fuel efficient by 2026 - Techcrunch.
Researchers find new strategy for preventing clogged arteries - Science Daily.
The average US house price relative to the average hourly employee earnings (red) has not increased significantly since a peak in 1989, despite the 30 year mortgage rate (blue) declining from 11% to a low of 2.7% in Jan 2021. Yesterday's rate is 4.67%. Over the period of the chart, house prices are 4.5x less affordable than in 1970.
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