Thursday 31 March 2022
How Much Real Estate Could You Buy for $1 Million - Visual Capitalist.
Enjoy a Virtual Museum Experience - Economy Museaum at the St. Louis Fed.
Some people want to use employment figures to judge the state of the economy. The number of US Job Openings (green) is always small, and has been lower in the past. Job openings go up and down concurrent with the number of Employees (blue). It is not like the job openings decline as more people find employment. It is easy to create jobs by borrowing money cheaply from the government.
The only significant thing you can tell from this chart is that the US Working Age Population (red) has peaked. That means the economy can no longer grow just because the population is increasing. For one thing, the need for new housing is limited. In Europe the brick houses last forever, and can be passed on through the generations. The US timber frame houses are not as durable.
Match Game Synd. (Episode 369) (BLANK Commission for $5,000 w/ Dick Martin) (McLean's Girls?) - Youtube.
Wednesday 30 March 2022
Some people are suggesting that the US stock market will continue to move higher, after it shot up from 2020. This is unlikely unless the government continuous to print money at the same rate.
Up to 1995 the Wilshire 5000 (blue) curiously matched the Federal Debt level (red), and was boosted by extra government debt in 2020. Relative to 10x Corporate Profits (green) the stock market is expensive. Rising interest rates are not good for any asset class except cash.
Annual increase in US total debt (blue) compared to Personal Consumption Expenditures (red). Some of the annual debt increase could be used to supplement wages:
Japan's economic output (blue), which is an annual amount, compared to the annual increase in total debt (red). The economy has not grown in US$ for 27 years. Debt increased, being more above zero than below it. When people borrow more the economy grows, and when they reduce debt the economy declines.
When the US 2-Year Treasury rate (red) coincides with the 10-Year rate (blue) it sometimes leads to a recession (grey band), and other times it doesn't:
Tuesday 29 March 2022
Japan's total debt (green) increased 2.6x or 4.1% per year since 1997, while the economy (GDP red) is exactly the same as in 1994 in US$. People appear to be living on debt. US total debt (purple) increased 19.67x or 7.4% per year since 1980, while the economy (blue) grew 8.6x or 5.3% per year. Debt grew 2.0% per year more than the economic output. If debt is invested in business, it should eventually generate more income, that is, income growth should exceed debt growth, otherwise people are living on the debt. US corporate debt was 13% of total debt in Q4, down from a peak of 23% in 1974.
Which just shows once again that lower interest rates lead to a less productive economy. When it is expensive to borrow money, it must be invested in high yielding assets that generate an income greater than the interest payments.
Monday 28 March 2022
Jim Rickards: The Worst Financial Market Crash Nobody Believed Was Coming Is Already Upon Us - Youtube.
XPeng shares jump after the Chinese EV automaker posts narrower-than-expected quarterly loss - CNBC. Xpeng P5 Test Drive!!! Hear what the Xpeng P7 & G3 owner Jefferson says about P5 - Youtube.
"House price-to-income ratio (aggregate measure per OECD) has surged to highest since mid-1970s" - Twitter.
Will the US$ remain the reserve currency? Japan's total debt (blue) is the same as its money supply (green), and increases very slowly. US total debt (red) is much bigger than money supply (purple). Money supply determines economic output, and inflation. That implies that the enormous US debt is doing little for economic growth. If US money supply increases to the debt level, which would mainly lead to inflation without economic growth, the US$ would be in trouble.
The US has printed more money than Japan for the last two decades (blue). The US Dollar should weaken against the Japanese Yen (red), which is up on the chart, unless there is more economic growth in the US. The US Dollar has instead strengthened since 2013.
Sunday 27 March 2022
From 19 March: These charts show how much it costs to charge an EV vs. refueling a gas vehicle - CNBC.
Saturday 26 March 2022
US Mortgage Debt Service Payments as a Percent of Disposable Personal Income is small:
Friday 25 March 2022
US stock market indexes have broken out of the falling wedge pattern, but the speculative burst has run out of steam.
Thursday 24 March 2022
"The 30-year mortgage rate in the US rises to 4.42%, its highest level since January 2019. Last year it hit an all-time low of 2.65%." - Twitter. Trouble for house prices and consumer spending.
"I just heard a commentator on CNBC say there is no recession with initial jobless claims as low as 187k. Last time this happened? September 6th, 1969. When did the recession begin? Try… December 1969. This is otherwise known as classic late-cycle! " - Twitter.
Barclays slashes its S&P 500 forecast and says the benchmark index has 'limited upside' as consumer spending binge cools and earnings growth slows - Markets Insider.
Finding an explanation for the big jump in US corporate profits (blue) from 2002 to 2005, and 2020-21 is difficult. It does appear to follow total US debt (red). Debt is a capital amount, whilst profits are annual. Corporations make a small profit of 2.7% out of the debt.
Wednesday 23 March 2022
Q1 2022 Earnings Season Gets Underway - Nasdaq. "Excluding the positive revisions to Energy sector estimates, 2022 Q1 earnings estimates would be down -1.1% for 2022 Q1".
"NEW: we’re proposing $11 BILLION in relief, including a $9 billion tax refund for rising gas prices. - $400 per registered car, - 3 months of free public transit" - Twitter. This compels people to own two vehicles. If they pay an extra $400 in taxes, and receive $400 back, it achieves nothing else.
Amazon Halts Work on San Francisco Depot After City Moratorium - Bloomberg. "a moratorium on new parcel delivery services there".
"Tesla rolled out its first German-made cars at its Gruenheide plant with Chief Executive Elon Musk dancing and joking with fans, marking the start of the U.S. automaker's inaugural European hub just two years after it was first announced https://reut.rs/3it0AoF" Twitter.
Sustainable leather, yarn and paper—from bread-eating fungi - Phys.org.
Tuesday 22 March 2022
Apple Has Made the Worst Monitor - Xander.
Peter Schiff: Fed’s real inflation weapon will crash markets; Fake CPI is only getting higher - Youtube.
Labrador Iron Ore - At 15% Yield, Yes, It's Attractive - SeekingAlpha.
UK watchdog puts 50 crypto companies on notice over ‘misleading’ ads - CNBC.
From 29 March 2021: Initial Conditions For Inflation: 1940s, 1970s & 2020s? - Seeking Apha.
US national debt shot up from $43B in 1940 to $259B in 1945 due to World War II, then stayed the same until 1952, and grew slowly (1.4% per year) for the next 10 years to $298B in 1962 - The Balance.
US M2 money supply increased from $55.20 in 1940 to $126.63B in 1945 at 18% per year, grew 3.8% per year to 1952, and 3.6% per year for 10 years to $233.92, thereby devaluing the national debt which was $298B in 1962 - Census page 992.
Inflation averaged 3.6% per year from 1942 to 1962. Most of the inflation was in 1941, 1947 and 1951, presumably from the big increase in money supply - LongtermTrends.
Interest rates (3 month Treasury Bills) was 0% in 1940, stayed at 0.4% up to 1947, and climbed to an average of 3% in 1965 - Fraser Federal Reserve.
So the US government stopped borrowing in 1945, and gradually wrote off the value of the debt over decades, whilst savers lost the value of money against inflation. Today the government is still borrowing more every year. Money supply growth was 6.8% per year from 1945 to 1962, whilst inflation was 3.6%. The difference could be economic growth. Perhaps more women worked during and after the war.
Monday 21 March 2022
India Ignores Western Pressure, Buys 'Cheap' Russian Crude - Zero Hedge.
Factbox: The U.S. SEC's proposed new climate risk disclosure requirements - Reuters. Higher temperatures release more carbon dioxide in nature. It is doubtful that an increase in carbon dioxide raises temperatures.
The green solutions like solar and wind, with gas as backup make it worse. Solar panels convert 80% of the sun's energy into heat. In 2020, US solar power heated up the earth at a rate of 1,089,000 GWh per year, compared to 1,318,000 GWh per year for the heat generated by coal power plant. If 50% of the available solar power were used, it supplied about 13% of the electricity the coal power supplied. Burning gas does not produce the smoke that is needed to seed the clouds. It is the subsequent rain that cools down the earth, and increases plant growth, which is needed to absorb the carbon dioxide.
Musk reveals plan to scale Tesla to ‘extreme size’ - Techcrunch. “Main Tesla subjects will be scaling to extreme size, which is needed to shift humanity away from fossil fuels, and AI,” Musk tweeted. Where will the electricity come from to charge the electric vehicles? According to U.S. energy consumption by source and sector, 2020, eliminating the 24.3 quadrillion Btu used by transport, would lower the fossil fuel sources by 24.3/72.9 = 33%. That is assuming the electricity used for charging does not require gas turbines as back-up power source.
Sunday 20 March 2022
Shopping for Bargains in France & a visit from our chimney sweep - Youtube. Groceries in France are not expensive.
"Monthly exports, imports, and trade balance for the US": - Twitter. Capital being pulled out of the rest the world into the US dollar is not a good sign for stock markets.
The US trade deficit, shown as a positive value below (red) still increases when the stock market (blue) has already started to decline.
Saturday 19 March 2022
US personal consumption expenditures (blue) is more than the total wages (red). Spending exceeded wages by 25% in 1980, and by 51% in 2021. If government expenditure is added to wages (green), it matches personal expenditure (blue). It seems the government is keeping the economy going, and mostly with debt. Another democracy becoming a socialist state.
Friday 18 March 2022
Edward Yardeni’s Post: "Inflation has always declined as a result of recessions, i.e. hard landings. If the plan is to slowly raise interest rates to gradually slow demand resulting in a soft landing, then good luck with that!"
"If the #Fed really is committed to doing whatever it takes to fight #inflation & shrink its balance sheet, why did it buy an additional $46.3 billion in Govt. debt during the week ending March 16th? That pushed the size of the Fed's balance sheet to a record high $8.954 trillion!" - Twitter.
"Despite the recent sell-off, the valuation of the S&P 500 remains at high levels by historical standards" - Twitter.
"@stlouisfed President Jim Bullard says fed funds rate should rise above 3% this year to fight inflation. It's currently in a range of 0.25-.5% and markets have priced in about 1.8% thru Dec. So that's more." - Twitter.
Lawyer For Mother Of Hunter Biden's Daughter Says He Expects President's Son To Be Indicted - Zero Hedge.
The US stock market (blue) outgrew Gross Domestic Product (red) due to higher profit margins. Wage demands and higher commodity prices could put pressure on those margins. Higher interest rates will increase mortgage payments, and leave consumers with less spending money. As long as money supply (green) growth continues, GDP (red) will go up due to inflation. It will takes years to catch up with the stock market (blue). In the meantime the stock market could fall 50% if sales decline, and margins shrink.
Thursday 17 March 2022
"JPMorgan’s Kolanovic Says Market Bubble Corrections Almost Over" - Bloomberg.
Gold, Silver and Miners to Lead all Asset Classes. Michael Oliver of MSA. - Youtube. The gold price spikes at times, but most of the time it slowly declines down to the cost of mining. What is noticeable is how marginal a lot of gold mining is. The gold price has increased more than other metals over time, because it has become more scarce and costly to mine.
How much gold has been mined? - Gold.org. The above ground stock is 197,576 tonnes, with 54,000 tonnes below ground reserves. At 3500 tonnes mined per year, the below ground reserves would last 15 years. "Mining companies will estimate how much gold remains at each mining project they operate. These can be split into two categories: reserves (gold that is economic to mine at the prevailing gold price); and resources (gold that will potentially be economic to mine, subject to further investigation or at a different price level)"
How much gold is there left to mine in the world? - BBC. Gold mining production has started to level off.
From 26 Feb 2022: Amazing Physics Toys/Gadgets 1 - Youtube.
Wednesday 16 March 2022
Big Oil- The Fallacy Of A Windfall Profits Tax - RIA.
Alibaba (BABA) US ADR shot up +37% to $104.98 from $76.75 yesterday, a move that looks tiny compared its decline from $309.92 in Oct 2020. It started trading at $93.89 in Sep 2014.
The James Webb Space Telescope mirrors are aligned! - Youtube.
The Nasdaq 100 is only up +5.7% over a year. Investors are losing money relative to inflation. For as it was written, no asset class shall remain that will protect against inflation. Everybody must pay for the debt excesses.
It is difficult to get the market value of bonds on the interweb. If you held a government bond to maturity, a change in interest rate doesn't affect you. If you wanted to sell a 30 year US Treasury Security long before maturity, the market value would shift towards the inverse of the yield as shown below. When interest rates are very low, the face value would dominate. The effect of the "Constant Maturity" adjustment is unknown. There happens to be a big head-and-shoulder pattern with a twin peak for a head.
Tuesday 15 March 2022
An Urgent Warning For Investors | The Coming Recession - Youtube.
The US stock market is higher. Investors are mocking the expected Reserve Bank (Federal Open Market Committee) rate increase.
Billionaire supermarket CEO: Buy now, food inflation will only get much worse - Fox Business. The big increase in US money supply in 2020 should create an inflation wave, which would peak and decline.
The Government Doesn't Want YOU Watching This! - Youtube (UK grocery inflation). Some grocery categories increase a lot one year, and then less the next year. Products that become too expensive disappear off the shelf.
"This is almost unbelievable… The MSCI China Index total return (ignoring any fees, taxes, etc…) since its 12/31/92 inception is approaching a 0% nominal cumulative return" - Twitter.
Strongest annual growth in property prices on record - Australian Bureau of Statistics. "Residential property prices rose 23.7 per cent through the year to December quarter 2021, the strongest annual growth since the Residential Property Price Index series began in the September quarter 2003, according to figures released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS)."
"Used car prices rose more than 41% in February compared to a year ago, according to the Labor Department" - Twitter.
China tech rout: Hong Kong market sinks after JPMorgan calls sector ‘uninvestable’ as global funds shun macro, geopolitical risks - SCMP. The China stock market (red) does have bubbles from time to time. It doesn't appear to be in a bubble at the moment. The US stock market (blue) is in a bubble.
The MSCI China Index is invested in stocks that were expensive like Tencent and Alibaba.
Monday 14 March 2022
Tesla increases prices throughout whole lineup, its cheapest electric car now starts at $47,000 - Electrek. So much for the dream of every-one buying an electric vehicle.
Headlines containing the word "sanction" is unclear, because the word has two conflicting meanings. It could either be a penalty or an approval.
How much of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK) performance is due to inflation? The share price is up 70x since 1 June 1990. The US M2 money supply is up 6.8x over the same period. Thus 6.2% per year of the growth was nominal inflation, and 7.6% per year real growth above inflation. If you bought a house with a 56% loan you would have achieved the same leverage on inflation (initially, ignoring transaction costs).
From 28 Dec 2021: The Fed’s Doomsday Prophet Has a Dire Warning About Where We’re Headed - Politico. "He also warned that it would suck the Fed into a money-printing quagmire that the central bank would not be able to escape without destabilizing the entire financial system". Who doesn't love a good quagmire?
Putin and Russia are losers whether they continue to occupy the Ukraine, or withdraw after inflicting a lot of damage. Putin's mind is still stuck in the Soviet era, whilst the rest of planet has moved on.
Sunday 13 March 2022
Huge Crash Is Coming "It's Just Going To Get Worse" - Peter Schiff - Youtube.
Trump said at a rally the US should bring back manufacturing. The average annual wage in China is about CNY108,000 ~ $17,000 compared to $55,000 in the US. The ratio is down to 3.2x. More inflation in the US will lower real wages. The main improvement in the standard of living in developed countries was due to cheap Chinese labour, and people living on debt.
The data doesn't look good — here is why the RV bubble is about to burst! - Youtube.
From 8 April 2019: Tour the Las Vegas Underground House Fallout Shelter - Youtube.
Bus carrying Ukrainian refugees overturns in Italy - The Hill. When the universe is against you.
When the interest rate on loans are 3.85%, like in the US on a 30 year mortgage, and inflation is 12 to 25% based on the money supply growth rate, you should borrow more if you can investment in assets that grow at the inflation rate. The rate of money supply growth (red) has mostly been higher than the mortgage rate (blue) since 2008. To stop the incentive to take on more debt, interest rates need to rise to match inflation.
House prices have shot up already, and is dependent on worker wages, which have lagged inflation. However, the Federal Reserve appears unwilling to reverse past money supply growth, only reduce the rate of inflation. That means house prices are likely to continue higher in the future.
US total debt (blue) is still growing faster than money supply (red), unlike the 2008-2011 period. Typically debt matches money supply, because a bank only lends out the deposits it receives. Somehow the US manages to borrow much more than the money available in the economy. In 2020 the money supply shot up the same amount as debt. If in the future this debt creates more money supply, inflation would shoot up. To stop the debt growth will require higher interest rates, which would make it a dangerous time to invest in property.
Saturday 12 March 2022
"You will learn more about history and economics in 40 minutes by watching @RayDalio's video on YouTube than you will while doing a degree at a university. Thank you Ray for doing such outstanding work and sharing your knowledge with the world." - Twitter. Empires tend to build up a lot of wealth which draws people in from the colonies or every poor country, which drags down the civilization. It also happened to the Roman Empire.
The US stock markets form a falling wedge pattern (Wikipedia). This happens because speculators buy and sell earlier every time. The markets could turn upwards. A small profit growth is expected for Q1 which could result in a sideways market.
When a central bank says it wants to increase interest rates slowly for a smooth landing of the economy, it means past and present price increases due to the increase in money supply will become permanent, and they will try to lower future inflation.
Petroleum products are often priced according to energy density. Crude oil trades at $112.34/barrel = $0.826/kg. It has an energy density of 44MJ/kg, giving a price of $18.8/GJ. Coal trades at $366/ton = $0.366/kg. It has an energy density of 24MJ/kg, giving a price of $15.3/GJ. A gas turbine or coal to steam turbine has an efficiency around 33%, which increases the electricity price to about $0.20/kWh for oil, and $0.165/kWh for coal.
US natural gas trades at $4.80/MMBtu = $4.55/GJ, which is 24% of the cost of crude oil. EU natural gas trades at €131/MWh = $39.7/GJ, which is 2.1x more expensive than crude oil.
Friday 11 March 2022
Cost of Living Crisis Is Payback for Decades of Monetary Inflation - Youtube.
"US bans import of vodka, caviar and diamonds from Russia. CNBC" - Twitter. Also no Cuban cigars or rum. Who is being punished?
Thursday 10 March 2022
The S&P 500 estimated revenue growth for Q1 of 2022 is 9.8%, and the earnings estimate is +3.7%. Nasdaq.
The S&P 500 revenue growth for Q4 of 2021 was 15.1%. Earnings growth for Q4 was +32%, or 23.4% without the energy sector, and the estimate for Q1 2022 is +6.4%, or +1.4% without energy. Refinitiv.
"Wanna know what scares me? This chart. Money supply growth is still at 12% y/y, which is bad. But see commercial bank credit? It's ACCELERATING. Concerning. The Fed directly controls neither of these, when they don't control the marginal reserve dollar." - Twitter.
The Fed (red) supplied half of the money supply increase (blue) for the past 11 months:
There are a lot of people on the interweb who believe government inflation statistics. These must be the same people who every election get excited about political campaigns, and then diligently stand in a line at polling stations to vote for those promises. You have to start with the assumption that money is seldom added to the supply without causing inflation. In the equation: Velocity x Money supply = Real economic growth x Inflation, if Money supply = Inflation, then Real economic growth = Velocity. The growth in velocity (blue) shown below for the US would be the real economic growth rate, instead of the official version (red).
The big drop in 2020 would normally be a deep recession, probably a depression, but the grey band shows only a brief recession. It is a miracle that government suddenly printed a lot of money without causing inflation. The inflation is usually delayed. When wages do not keep up with inflation, workers inadvertently become more efficient, producing the same goods for money that is worth less. Businesses reported a big rise in profits, probably due to higher product prices (inflation), whilst labour costs did not increase as much.
Wednesday 9 March 2022
How did Cuba fare after the US embargo of 1962? Relative to US money supply as nominal inflation rate, from 1970 to 2020, the Cuban economy (blue) and US economy (red) declined to the same extent:
Tuesday 8 March 2022
The Next Bear Market Will Be The Worst In 80 years — Jim Rogers - Youtube. US stagflation started two decades ago according to the velocity of money flow.
Shell to stop buying Russian oil, issues apology - News24. There is a lot of chatter about Russia threatening to cut of gas supplies from Europe. That is too late. The invasion of the Ukraine has made Russia an unreliable source for anything, and thus their customers need to make alternative arrangements for the future. What Europeans will do is another matter. They have made poor decisions so far.
The price of nickel has shot up vertically: Trading Economics. The biggest producers is Indonesia and the Philippines. Russia supplies 10%. Wikipedia.
Was gold a good investment during World War Two? The US$ gold price shot up 1930-4, then declined to 1970, shot up until 1980, declined to 2001, shot up until 2011 (Macrotrends). The gold price doesn't appear to correlate well with anything. The US gold price has kept pace with US money supply over a 50 year period, but had extreme changes inbetween.
From 19 Mar 2010: Gold's Dramatic Rise and Fall in 1980s - Why It's Important - Seeking Alpha.
Is the coal price unusually high at $400/ton? Relative to US money supply (green), the producer price of coal (grey) is 16% of what it was in 1959. Crude oil (brown) is 41%.
Monday 7 March 2022
"It's challenging to overstate how crazy this chart is, which is why I keep referencing and updating it." - Twitter. Today's US government debt and interest rates are comparable to the 1940s.
"Natural gas in Europe at unthinkable prices" - Twitter.
In the US, the total compensation of employees (red) happened to matched money supply (blue) until 2001, and then they separated. It means the money in circulation was paid once during a year as wages, until 2001. After 2001 workers received less of the money in circulation. The green line is corporate profits added to employee compensation. Corporate profits increased after 2001 until about 2009, and then remained the same until 2020. The big growth in money supply (blue) since 2009 corresponds to slower movement of money through the economy (velocity). Whatever the reason for it, the fact that workers receive less of the money in circulation can't be positive.
The divergence of employee compensation and money supply agrees closely with the Federal Reserve balance sheet (QE = Quantitive Easing) until 2016. The brown line is the Federal Reserve balance sheet added to employee compensation. Adding new money without production creates inflation.
Sunday 6 March 2022
"The total disregard of national security considerations by the Green Movement in Europe & the US is the most staggering example of gross negligence I’ve ever seen" - Twitter. Bad government did not end after the second world war.
Ukraine's population has declined from a peak of 52.2M in 1993 to 44.1M in 2020: Worldbank.
Saturday 5 March 2022
"The Rocket that will take humanity to #Mars" - Twitter. If it were a movie, as the rocket lifts up to take the last remaining humans to mars, the earth below it would be destroyed by a nuclear war.
The Road to Debt Monetization Is Paved With Good Intentions - Ep 784 - Youtube.
The Real Estate Bubble is About To Explode with Scott Walters - Youtube.
Is the US real estate market in an bubble? The average US house price (blue) was $477,900 in Q4. Relative to money supply divided by the working age population (red) it should be $670,000 (making a wild assumption that a growing workforce increases output with the same money supply). Relative to average hourly earnings (green) it should be $207,000. The house price inflation due to an increase in money supply is typically delayed by two to three years. The effect on overall inflation is delayed by a further two to three years. If the average wage doesn't keep up with inflation, people could buy smaller homes, work longer hours, or save for longer to make a bigger down payment.
Comparing the average US house price (blue), with average hourly earnings of employees divided by the mortgage rate (red). The lower the mortgage rate, the higher the house price workers can afford.
The lithium carbonate price has shot up 8.8x in a year to $78.1/kg: Trading Economics. Are there limited deposits on earth?
In 2021 global lithium production was 100,000 tons, and production changed little for four years – Lithium mine production worldwide from 2010 to 2021.
From 9 Feb 2022: Production by country in 2020: Australia 46.3%, Chile 23.9%, China 16.2%. Australia's production declined, whilst China's production increased – Charted: Lithium Production by Country (1995-2020).
Lithium mining what you should know about the contentious issue - Volkswagen: "The total global reserves are estimated at 14 million tons. This corresponds to 165 times the production volume in 2018." The annual production is tiny compared to available deposits.
The money the US Federal Reserve has lent to the government (red) is equivalent to printed money. So about 30% of US government debt (blue) has been printed already. To repay the loans, the government will have to borrow it from lenders who don't mind earning interest far below inflation. This would take money out of circulation and weaken the economy.
What is Putin thinking? Spy agencies size up Ukraine moves - Nikkei Asia. The damage to the Ukraine is already so big that Russia's isolation from the rest of world will likely last for years to come, even if Russian forces withdrew.
Friday 4 March 2022
Free To Choose 1980 - Vol. 09 How to Cure Inflation - Full Video - Youtube.
In 1980 people didn't have access to all the data on the internet, which makes it possible for everyone to see that: inflation = money supply growth. If the US government printed money to pay the federal debt, the extra money should be added to money supply. The real economic output would decline as shown below. Debt should only be used for infrastructure projects that generate more than that in economic growth.
Huawei’s competitor to Tesla electric cars is set to hit China’s streets on Saturday - CNBC.
For years world leaders gave legitimacy to the Putin dictatorship, by meeting with him on many occasions.
Thursday 3 March 2022
"People think Europe depends on Russia for energy because it lacks its own, but 15 years ago Europe exported more natural gas than Russia does today. " - Twitter.
Implementation of Sanctions Against Russia Under the Export Administration Regulations (EAR) - Federal Register. Politicians are really good with writing new regulations.
America’s biggest new mansion auctions for $141 million - CNBC. Does it have a bomb shelter?
"Who supplies Europe's oil?" - Twitter.
"BREAKING: European natural gas benchmark TTF surges to €199.99 per MWh, a new all-time high. In crude oil terms, natural gas is trading at what's ~$360 per barrel of oil equivalent!!!" - Twitter.
China’s Belt and Road strafed by Vladimir Putin - Reuters.
Increased US oil production (blue) due to shale oil brought down the oil price (red) from $100/barrel levels in 2014. US production is still high, but it is apparently not enough to keep the oil price down. US production is 14.8 billion barrels per day, Saudi Arabia 12.4, and Russia 11.3 (Worldometer). A substantial increase by other countries will be needed to replace Russian oil. Saudi Arabia oil production (green) rose with an increasing oil price.
Wednesday 2 March 2022
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 make lower highs, and lower lows. The downtrend continues.
The tiny interest rate increases being discussed in the US is meaningless compared to inflation.
Peter Schiff: Russia Is The New "Excuse Variant" For The Fed - Zero Hedge.
Why Moving to a State with Low Income Taxes Could Cost You - Barron's.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has features of a psychopath: expert - Fox News.
At this stage, it doesn't look like the Ukraine invasion will end well for Putin. Once countries start avoiding Russian products, like gas, it could take a long time for them to return.
Tuesday 1 March 2022
Biden uses State of the Union to renew push for $15-an-hour minimum wage - Market Watch. Fighting inflation by creating more inflation.
"Pelosi Grateful Botox Helping Her Keep Straight Face All Night" - Twitter.
The high oil price will motivate more people to buy electric vehicles. The demand for oil has continued to increase long term (IEA). The big increase in demand was from Asia Pacific (BP chart).
How Europe can kick its Russian gas habit - Reuters. This article again ignores the fact that gas turbines are required as backup for wind and solar power, since the latter is only available 25% of the time. The total cost of wind and solar power must include the 75% gas power.
RBA Highlights Ukraine War Risks to Outlook as Key Rate Held - Bloomberg. The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its cash rate at 0.1%. Low interest rates is a sign of a dead economy.
Record home loans; record mortgages - Commsec. "The average new Australian mortgage on an established home hit a record $635,600 in January."
Like all countries, Australia reports a low inflation rate despite a big increase in money supply, suggesting a fantastic increase in the standard of living. Something doesn't add up. Money supply per working age person (green) increased 8.2% per year over the 43 years of this chart. House prices (red) increased 7.3% per year. Wages (blue) increased 4.1% per year. House prices are 3.5x more expensive compared to wages than 43 years ago.
YouTube blocks Russian channels RT, Sputnik in Europe - News24.
Previous webpage
Feb 2022
CONTACT INFORMATION
Commentary to: slandrp@gmail.com
This website is: www.aandele.co.za/AandeleVSA
Disclaimer: No responsibility is accepted for wrong information, or for losses as a result of any information on this website. The contents should not be regarded as financial advice. Website visitors should consult with their own financial advisors before reacting to information.
Copyright @2022