Monday 28 February 2022
Park Hotels & Resorts announces $300M share repurchase program - Seeking Alpha. At a share price of $18.95, it is trading at its net asset value (NAV) of $19.09. These share buybacks do not benefit the NAV. The money used for the buybacks lowers the NAV, which is cancelled out by the lower number of shares in issue. The company operates at a loss. The reduced number of shares increases the loss per share.
Google disables Maps live traffic tools in Ukraine - TechCrunch.
Russian c.bank confirms block on foreigners' bids to sell Russian securities - Reuters.
World’s biggest plane destroyed in Russian attack on airfield - Fin24.
Germany has phased out nuclear power (2011 Nuclear Energy Act) due to radiation concerns, like that from the Chernobyl disaster of 1986, is phasing out coal to reduce emmissions (2020 Coal Phase-Out Act). Next they will have to phase out Russian gas.
Remember to try Tic Tac Toe (noughts and crosses) when the nuclear defense computer thinks it is a game: WarGames (10/11) Movie CLIP - Tic Tac Toe With Joshua (1983) HD - Youtube. If you see any incoming missiles just call Matthew Broderick.
Sunday 27 February 2022
Opinion: Cow’s Milk Without the Cow? How Cellular Agriculture Could Change the Dairy Industry - Modern Farmer. The taste of cow's milk has deteriorated with the increasing pasteurization temperatures to extend the life.
"Give that designer a raise" - Twitter.
From 16 May 2012: Milton Friedman - Energy Policy - Debunking Environmental Extremism! - Youtube.
Friday 25 February 2022
California’s Wealth Tax is Back - Youtube. (1) The wealthy are wealthy because they offer unique services, and have pricing power. They can pass the higher taxes on as higher prices, which cause inflation which the poor pay for. (2) The people who benefit from free government services have not produced in return. The same money in circulation and lower economic output results in inflation, which the poor recipients end up paying for.
It's hard to believe Russia is doing an Iraq on the Ukraine – attacking a country without provocation. Biden says he will send a crack squad to the Ukraine – a squad smoking crack cocaine.
Barrick Gold (GOLD) reported 16 Feb a net profit margin of 22% for the fourth quarter. Gold revenue was $2213M and copper $524M (Barrick). All-in sustaining costs for gold was $971/oz compared to a gold price now of $1915/oz, and copper $2.92/pound compared to $4.51/pound now. Investments are most attractive when they are extremely undervalued, like gold was before 2002 at $260/oz. It has risen 7.4x in 20 years. Precious metals are not undervalued at the moment.
Historically, a rise in the money supply (red) led to a rise in house prices (blue), which led to a rise in overall inflation (green). It can be seen before 1980, and so far after 2020. The rest of the time it is less clear, and the inflation statistic is not reliable. House prices can fall back, but the increase in the price of all goods as a result of an increase in money supply (red) is mostly permanent.
Thursday 24 February 2022
Alibaba (BABA) third quarter revenue growth was down to just +9.7%, and the net profit margin to 8.4%. The growth of these big Chinese tech companies have slowed down. The price/earnings is $100.60(~4xRMB7.52/6.32) ~21.
Tuesday 22 February 2022
"JUST IN: Emergency UN Security Council meeting on Ukraine crisis will start in about 20 minutes and will be chaired by Russia, which currently holds the presidency of the Council." - Twitter. The UN legitimizes dictatorships, and should be closed down.
Monday 21 February 2022
Peter Schiff DESTROYS Fake Cathie Wood And Warns About The Coming Stock Market Crash - Youtube. Over the long term, gold only matches inflation, and does not give real growth. The US stock market could fall to lower valuation, but the unabated inflation will push it up again in the future. For the stock market (blue) to get in touch with inflation as represent by money supply (red) would require a 50% fall, but it has traded well above that since 1995, and the rate of inflation going forward remains be seen:
"Most People Have No Idea What Is Coming..." - Charlie Munger's Last WARNING - Youtube. The rate of money supply growth in Japan (red) is substantially lower than in the US (green):
Saturday 19 February 2022
From 21 Mrt 2016: Milton Friedman Speaks: What is Wrong with the Welfare State? (B1229) - Full Video - Youtube.
U.S. LNG capacity to jump 20% as Europe shifts away from Russia - Nikkei Asia. "This is you last free article this month".
"Warmongers argue that we must protect Ukraine because it is a “democracy.” But they’re lying. Ukraine isn't actually a democracy. To hold onto power, Ukraine's president shut down the 3 TV stations that criticized him, and imprisoned…" - Youtube.
From 25 Aug 2020: Why are the Dutch so tall? - BBC.
Trudeau Watching Old Footage Of Tiananmen Square For Ideas - Babylonbee.
Friday 18 February 2022
Peter Schiff: Cash In The United States Is About To Get 10X CRAZIER (And It's Not Just Prices) - Youtube.
Home prices up 15.4% in January from a year ago - CNN.
The house price increase on repeat sales of the same properties (blue) was mostly higher the last decade than all transactions (red). The former peak was at 19.3% in July 2020. That indicates that people are buying less expensive smaller homes.
The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index (red) is higher:
Thursday 17 February 2022
Who Bought the $6.5 Trillion in Treasuries Piled on the Incredibly Spiking US Debt in 22 Months? Who Holds the $30 Trillion? - Wolf Street.
You can now install Chrome OS on your Mac or PC - Techcentral. "Chrome OS Flex boots up in seconds and doesn’t slow down over time."
‘Pathetic’ performance has left U.S. ‘well behind’ China in 5G race, ex-Google CEO Eric Schmidt says - CNBC. You need 5G so that you can access his comments faster.
Wednesday 16 February 2022
Predicting the Markets Webcast: Predicting Inflation - Yardeni.
US inflation will reach a peak as soon as the government (Bureau of Labor Statistics) has made the necessary adjustments to the inflation metrics. As consumers can no longer afford the expensive items due to high inflation, those items can be removed from the inflation basket. Inflation measures affordability.
The copper price (orange) appears to be come through in the US overall inflation (blue). A higher copper price also means a weaker dollar as shown on the second chart.
The copper price (orange) is an exaggerated version of the dollar's strength (blue). This a chicken and egg situation. A weaker dollar would lift the dollar price of most commodities, because the price is determined outside the US. However, the variation in the copper price is much bigger than the dollar value. When a country has to pay more for imports, the currency would tend to weaken (more importers wanting to sell dollars than exporters wanting to buy).
Tuesday 15 February 2022
The IMF's economic growth estimates is good for a laugh.
Monday 14 February 2022
The aluminium price in US$ (blue) doubled since May 2020, but is still cheap compared to the US money supply (red). Four of the ten biggest bauxite mines are in Australia (Mining Technology).
The West Is Going Down the Unavoidable Road to Hyperinflation - Youtube.
To match the supply and demand for money will require much higher interest rates. If interest rates remain too low, governments will continue to create new money, which could lead to ever increasing inflation. Governments have increased their own debt with interest rates declining. Governments typically refuse to cut spending. There is a limit to higher taxes. They only alternative is to print more and more.
Repeat from 8 April 2021: The FRED chart below shows households were more responsible for the last 13 years by borrowing more slowly (green), but this is negated by businesses (red) and government (purple) borrowing more. Not shown are state and local government, domestic financial sectors, and rest of the world debt. It is ultimately the public who will pay for all the debt, through inflation. They should have voted for a different government when they had the chance. Now they are screwed.
Sunday 13 February 2022
Some people think reserve banks increase interest rates to control an overheated economy, whilst others think it is to limit inflation. Most economic "growth" is just inflation. Interest rates do not control inflation directly. The reason interest rates need to rise, is to compensate savers for inflation. If interest rates are too low, the demand from borrowers exceed the supply from savers. Then government must supply the extra money, like through QE (Quantative Easing). It is the extra money that causes inflation, which is why interest rates need to match the increase in money supply.
Interest rates in the US is far below the increase in money supply, and the subsequent inflation. In order to end QE, the Federal Reserve would normally raise interest rates to match the increase in money supply. However, governments do not report the actual inflation they cause, so savers/lenders do not know what interest rate they need to beat inflation.
Some stock market misconceptions:
(1) "You should not time the market". Timing an investment is everything. The FRED chart below shows the Wilshire 5000 index relative to US money supply as nominal inflation rate, up to Dec 2021. Had you invested in the stock market at the wrong time, you would have lost money relative to inflation. In nominal terms it might still have grown, but people don't know what the inflation rate is.
(2) Foreigners have piled into the US stock market, because it has outperformed their own market. Due to the high rate of money printing by their own government, the US dollar could still strengthen relative to their currency. To them, it may look like the US stock market only goes up. That is because they don't know how high their local inflation rate is.
For example, the Wilshire 5000 index rose 13.5% per year the last 10 years. Relative to US money supply it was growth of 5.0% per year. This is thanks to very low interest rates, consumers living it up on more debt, and governments borrowing more to pay for expenses instead of collecting taxes. It is not sustainable. The high stock market growth must eventually be followed by negative real growth. Corporate profits were boosted the last few decades by having products manufactured cheaply in developing countries. Future gains are limited.
Saturday 12 February 2022
Fiat Currencies: They Are All Sinking! - Youtube.
Friday 11 February 2022
Can the Fed Avoid a Major Crisis and Engineer a Soft Landing? - Youtube.
Red Hot Inflation, Is the Fed Telling the Truth? Byrnes and Horwitz Debate | Stansberry Research - Youtube.
Mortgage Rates Hit 4.02%. Two-Year Yield Spikes by Most since 2009. Ten-Year Yield Goes over 2%. All Heck Breaks Loose - Wolf Street. House prices are going to tumble.
The FRED chart shows the increase in dollar amount of US debt (blue), money supply (green), and Federal Reserve Bank Assets (red). What is unusual is that since 2020 the increase in US debt (blue) came through in the money supply (red), whereas before debt increased without a significant increase in money supply. The money created by the Federal Reserve through QE (red) increased money supply (green). It appears to be in response to a sudden increase in debt (blue). The question is whether the debt (blue) will continue to pull up the money supply (red) which will cause more inflation.
The main purpose of interest rates is to match the supply from savers, and demand from borrowers. When savers give up their use of the money, there is not necessarily an increase in inflation when debt increases. The US Federal Reserve has interfered with the balance by supplying debt through QE, which added new money. If they end QE, interest rates will probably have to go a lot higher.
Match Game Synd. (Episode 255) (BLANK Paints for $5000 with Bob Donner & BLANK Vegetables for $5000) - Youtube.
Thursday 10 February 2022
Peter Schiff: "The Fed Will Crash The Economy" | DO THIS NOW - Youtube.
"Let's put this CPI number in perspective... Here are some price changes since January 2021" - Twitter.
Laguna Beach Is On Fire - The Misery Index is Climbing - Youtube.
The official inflation rate only comes out higher than normal when it rises suddenly. The government did not have enough time to fudge the numbers. US inflation for January is 7.5% (red). Nominal economic growth was 11.71% for Q4 (blue). The difference between the two is real economic growth. It is possible to have temporary real economic growth because inflation is delayed. The real growth of 3 to 5% on the chart is impossible. For example at 5% growth, your standard of living should be 4.3x higher than your parents 30 years ago. If they had one house, you should have an extra 3 vacation homes.
‘Jurassic World: Dominion’ Gives Fans Their Ian Malcolm Due - The Hollywood Reporter.
Wednesday 9 February 2022
SpaceX loses 40 satellites to geomagnetic storm a day after launch - BBC.
U.S. House Democrats eye ban on stock trading in Congress -Punchbowl - Reuters. Congress or parliament spends all its time making laws, which is why laws fill a whole building. "The largest law libraries in the world are found in the United States. The world's largest law library is the Law Library of Congress, which holds over 2.9 million volumes." - Wikipedia. "Every two years (on average) there are over 600 new US Federal Laws" - Library of Congress.
The US sales of jewelry and watches (blue) has shot up with money supply (red). A tiny portion (0.5%) of the money has gone into jewelry. It is not necessarily a bigger volume. It could just be higher prices. People might have rushed to buy now before expected higher inflation.
Tuesday 8 February 2022
Used Vehicle Prices Finally Hit Resistance, at Ridiculous Levels - Wolf Street.
Monday 7 February 2022
PriceRunner sues Google for 2.1 billion euros, prepares for long fight - Reuters. ".... alleging the search giant manipulated search results".
Meta says it may shut down Facebook and Instagram in Europe over data-sharing dispute - Reuters.
In world-first, researchers engineer human spinal cord implants for treating paralysis - MedicalXpress.
Sunday 6 February 2022
Rivian R1T Vs Toyota Tundra: How Far Can It Tow A Small Trailer? - InsideEVs. If a small trailer cuts an electric vehicle's range by half, a caravan would be unpractical.
$33bn investment industry hit in Spain loophole clampdown - Moneyweb.
US total debt is much bigger than money supply. A lot of borrowed money is not deposited into a bank account, where it could be counted as part of the money supply. Could the debt enter the money supply later, and add to inflation?
The ratio of Gross Domestic Product to total US debt (below) has declined from 0.77 to 0.27 over 70 years. The debt seemingly went into unproductive assets, that is, assets which did not increase economic output. It will be more difficult to pay back the debt.
Saturday 5 February 2022
"Good luck with raising rates. (Deutsche Bank)" - Twitter. Rising share of US companies with debt servicing costs that are higher than profits.
There Is No Easy Way Out of the Cost of Living Crisis. - Youtube.
"Hyper-inflation in luxury: Chanel raised the price of its Classic Flap Bag 3 times last year, from $5,200 to $8,200. “We’ve seen absolutely no consumer resistance to any or the price increases” in luxury." - Twitter.
Friday 4 February 2022
"A software firm that helps shops automate their pricing strategies said 75% of the retailers on its platform have increased how frequently they update prices in the past year, with nearly a third changing prices several times a day, up from 15% a year ago." - Twitter. Preparing for hyperinflation?
"For the first time, we are adding a SIXTH hike to our probability chart as the market is now pricing in a 51% probability of a hike in February, which would bring fed funds funds to 1.5-1.7%, according to Refinitiv." - Twitter. That is a joke compared to inflation.
Combination of two cancer drugs make pancreatic tumors treatable with immunotherapy methods - MedicalXpress.
"Prufrock-1 has arrived at Resorts World on the Vegas Strip! Thanks to @ResortsWorldLV @LVCVA @ClarkCountyNV for their amazing support." - Twitter. The Boring Company tunnel seems dangerously close to the surface. What stops the soil above from collapsing?
Why are people NOT buying raw LiFePO4 cells? - Youtube.
Thursday 3 February 2022
New artificial enamel is harder and more durable than the real thing - Science.org.
Wednesday 2 February 2022
Are We Being Scammed - The Fed Will Never Raise Rates - Youtube.
Tuesday 1 February 2022
‘Britain’s Bill Gates’ is facing extradition to the U.S.: Here’s all you need to know - CNBC.
Inflation is really 15%, highest since 1947; Why is government 'suppressing' data? John Williams - Youtube.
On a log scale, US money supply is mostly a straight line. Any constant growth rate would be a straight line, including hyperinflation if it is constant growth. Over the last decade, US money supply increased 2.23x. The decade before that it was 1.79x, and before that 1.60x. For the last 18 months the annualized growth rate was +12.8%, which works out to 3.34x over a decade. Inflation is accelerating. At 0% interest, savers are losing the value of their money at 12.8% per year. Total US debt grew 5.7% over the year to Q3 2021, which means debt is effectively being reduced.
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