Friday 31 December 2021
Refinitiv: The S&P 500 third quarter revenue growth is estimated at 17.0%, and earnings growth 34.3%. If the volume of goods traded was the same, then inflation was 17.0%. With 12.3% net profit margin (Factset) costs increased by 14.9%. If volume increased, it would provide a higher profit margin due to fixed overhead costs.
Billionaire Chamath Palihapitiya says Visa and Mastercard will be the biggest business failures in 2022, losing out to altcoin-linked projects - Yahoo Finance.
The low gold price is mainly determined by the cost of mining. Barrick Gold (GOLD) for the 3rd quarter had a net profit margin of $0.20/$1.59 = 12.6%. The annual profit margin since Dec 2014: -28% -31% 7.6% 17.1% -21.3% 40.9% 18.5% (Q3 12.6%). They are still making a profit, so no immediate need for a higher gold price.
Experts warn of cannibalism among space colonists if food systems fail - Foxnews.
Thursday 30 December 2021
"Two-thirds of the companies that went public in the U.S. this year are now trading below their IPO prices - WSJ" - Twitter.
Tesla Recalls Nearly Half a Million Vehicles - The Street.
US total debt (blue) grows at a higher rate than economic output (red). The ratio went up to 3.8 in 2009, 4.1 in 2020, and is now back down to 3.7. Since 2008 money supply (and inflation) has grown faster than debt, the ratio of debt to nominal economic output has levelled off.
Wednesday 29 December 2021
"The disconnect between the US stock market and the economy continues to grow. When will a reversion eventually occur?" - Twitter.
"1/23. Today is the 32nd anniversary of the Japanese stock market peak. Nikkei hit 38,916 on Dec 29, 1989 and then fell 63.2% by Aug 18, 1992. Living in Tokyo throughout this period, I witnessed a market that actually halved -- an experience that colours my bearish outlook today." - Twitter.
Hyundai pauses Genesis hydrogen fuel cell project just days after ending ICE engines - Electrek.
Tuesday 28 December 2021
Delta turned flight around mid-air, saying China's new Covid cleaning rules are unworkable - CNN.
Monday 27 December 2021
Apple's (AAPL) price/earnings is now 32: Macrotrends. Year revenue to September grew by 33%, and net profit margin improved to 26% from 20.9% the previous year.
China Sets New Plug-In Car Sales Record: 413,000 In November 2021 - InsideEVs.
Best Food Companies To Buy Amid Rising Food Prices - Talk Markets.
Nikola Hit with $125M Fine For Lying to Investors - ExtremeTech.
Friday 24 December 2021
James Webb Space Telescope in flawless launch – as it happened - Techcentral.
Why the new space telescope looks so strange - Vox.
Thursday 23 December 2021
China hoards over half the world's grain, pushing up global prices - Asia Nikkei.
US house prices (blue) grew at 20% during July to September. When interest rates (red) rise, the economy and house prices decline, or at least the growth rate slows down.
Wednesday 22 December 2021
"The price of natural gas in Europe is 15x the price it is in the U.S. currently." - Twitter. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) or Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) ships are available.
The Shanghai Composite index had low growth for two decades, whilst the price/earnings ratio declined: MacroMicro.
Some people use the US stock market (green) as reference for the returns investors should expect. The stock market is a massive bubble. Stocks are extremely expensive on a price/earnings basis. The economic output (red) is the growth rate that should expected. If the growth in money supply (blue) represents inflation, then the US economy has almost wiped out 4 decades of growth. The increase in prosperity is great whilst debt grows. Then the debt must be paid through inflation, which will also inflate away stock market gains. Wealth cannot be created out of thin air, without real economic growth.
The US dollar doesn't necessarily decline against other currencies, because other countries also print a lot of money. It is a race to the bottom. US money supply (blue) growth has been much higher recently compared to the Eurozone (red). China had high money supply growth, but inflation was limited by economic growth.
Tuesday 21 December 2021
Chinese companies vanish from world's top 10 by market cap - Nikkei Asia. China has high economic growth, but the stock market has very low growth. The US has no real economic growth, but the stock market has shot up.
The US Federal Reserve's balance sheet is still growing at 20% per year, after it shot up to 80% growth in 2020:
Monday 20 December 2021
COVID Outbreak Hits World's Largest Cruise Ship - Zero Hedge.
Thursday 16 December 2021
Emergent BioSolutions Begins Phase 1 Trial for Universal Flu Vaccine - The Street.
"If you loved Robinhood at $85, you’ll love it at $18." - Twitter.
Wednesday 15 December 2021
People talk about the rising US stock market as if it is real growth. It is mostly just inflation. The stock market can't grow bigger than the economy (except for foreign listings). Relative to the gold price (yellow), the US economy (blue) has not grown:
China shows what true economic growth (blue) looks like compared to gold (yellow):
Tuesday 14 December 2021
"CPI 6.8% PPI 9.6% and the Fed under Powell is still running zero rates & QE" - Twitter.
"Elon Musk is time person of the year.(a crap magazine by the way) but my story goes another way. In 1999 it was Jeff Bezos. Amazon proceeded to lose 95% of its value when the tech bubble popped." - Twitter.
Monday 13 December 2021
"S&P 500’s real earnings yield has plunged to a new record low of -2.8%" - Twitter.
"OUCH! German power price jumps >200/MWh for first time ever." - Twitter.
Thursday 9 December 2021
U.S. House passes ban on imports from China's Xinjiang - Nikkei Asia.
"'Copper inventories hit the lowest level since 2006.' " - Twitter.
Monday 6 December 2021
UK High Court deals huge blow to Uber-style ride-hailing contracts - TechCrunch.
Sunday 5 December 2021
691 Stocks Are Down Over 50% This Year - Talk Markets.
"We Got Too Slow" - Burger King To Axe Menu Items To Speed Up Drive-Thru Times - Zero Hedge.
Saturday 4 December 2021
"Every deficit of government results in a surplus where the income of households, businesses and foreigners exceeds their consumption and net investment." - Twitter.
Indonesia volcano: Dozens injured as residents flee huge ash cloud from Mt Semeru - BBC.
Friday 3 December 2021
The Decline Of U.S. Car Production - Talk Markets. Other industries were more profitable.
Americans Panic-Buy RVs As Shipments Exceed 600,000 Units This Year And Next - Zero Hedge.
"Beyond Meat is now trading below the opening day close from its IPO in May 2019 and is 73% below its 2019 all-time high." - Twitter.
China's Didi Global to delist from New York in favor of Hong Kong - Nikkei Asia. Chinese companies are high risk.
Thursday 2 December 2021
Apple warns suppliers of weak demand for iPhone 13 lineup - Reuters.
Wednesday 1 December 2021
"Household ownership of US equities is increasing dramatically" - Twitter.
"TAPER WHAT? #ECB balance sheet keeps rising despite rampant inflation. Total assets have risen by another €14.7bn in the past week to hit fresh ATH at €8,457bn. ECB balance sheet now equal to 81.2% of Eurozone GDP vs Fed's 37.4%, BoE's 42%, BoJ's 134.6%." - Twitter.
Finnish Electricity Prices Jump 5x Amid Unseasonably Cold Weather And Worsening Energy Crisis - Zero Hedge.
Stunning Images Reveal Downtown San Francisco Is Boarded Up Amid Mass Looting - Zero Hedge. Not only does South Africa supply the Omicron virus, it provided a guide to mass looting.
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