Globale Verwarming

4 Junie 2017

Inleiding

Daar is baie verwarrende inligting op die internet oor globale verwarming. Party navorsers spandeer hulle hele lewe om die onderwerp te bestudeer. 'n Mens sou verwag dat hulle 'n duidelike verklaring gee van die situasie. Dit wil voorkom of party van hulle vir organisasies werk wat geskep is vir die doel, en dus is hulle bestaan afhanklik daarvan dat hulle bewys dat koolsuurgas globale verwarming veroorsaak. Dan is daar kritici wat enige rede soek om fout te vind. Hierdie artikel is 'n oorsig van die basiese inligting.

Uitstraling ("radiation")

Energie van die son bereik die aarde as ultra voilet (UV), sigbare en infra rooi lig. Dit word onder aangedui as die rooi area (grafiek van Wikipedia). Die rooi lyn verteenwoordig die normale uitstralings spektrum van 'n liggaam by 5525 Kelvin (5252°C).


Figuur 1. Uitstraling voortgeplant deur die atmosfeer


Vir die aarde se temperatuur om konstant te bly, moet al die energie wat die aarde van die son ontvang weer verloor word na die buitenste ruim. Daar is drie maniere waarop energie oorgedra kan word: uitstraling (elektromagnetiese golwe soos lig en hitte), konveksie (lug beweging), en geleiding (oordrag van een molekule na die volgende).

In die buitenste ruim bestaan net uitstraling omdat dit 'n lugleegte is sonder molekules. Die temperatuur van die aarde word daarom bepaal deur die verlies van die son se energie deur uitstraling na die buitenste ruim. Daar is algemene formules vir die uitstraling van 'n swart liggaam. Dit is vir 'n voorwerp wat 'n swart oppervlakte het, en alle invallende strale absorbeer. Die aarde se oppervlakte is nie swart nie, en die formules gee dus nie 'n akkurate waarde vir die aarde temperatuur nie, maar dit wys steeds watter golf lengtes die aarde uitstraal. Onderstaande grafiek uit Blackbody Radiation wys die golf lengtes wat 'n liggaam by 27°C (300K) uitstraal as die swart stippellyn. Die aarde se uitstralings spektrum word ook op die heel boonste grafiek 1 getoon as die drie lyne gemerk 210-310K (–63°C tot +37°C).


Aarde se energie balans

Onderstaande figuur is NASA se Aarde Energie Begroting van Wikipedia van 2009:



Die totale energie wat die aarde en sy atmosfeer van die son se uitstralings absorbeer is 77.1 + 163.3 = 240.4W/m2. Daarvan word 40.1W/m2 of 16.7% regstreeks van die aarde se oppervlakte na die buitenste ruim uitgestraal as hitte golwe. Volgens 2012 se The greenhouse effect and carbon dioxide is die syfer 9.2%. Die netto uitstraling van hitte golwe van die aard oppervlakte na die atmosfeer (lug) is 398.2 – 340.3 – 40.1 = 17.8W/m2 of 7.4%. Konveksie, insluitende die latente hitte wat water optel soos dit van oseane verdamp en afgee wanneer wolke gevorm word, is 18.4W/m2 + 86.4W/m2, wat 43.6% van die totaal is. Geleiding deur die atmosfeer is uiters klein omdat lug 'n uitstekende insulator is. Die oorblywende energie is uitstralings van die son wat in die atmosfeer in hitte omgesit word (nie weerkaats word by dieselfde golf lengtes nie) en dit is 77.1W/m2 of 32.1%. Al die energie in die atmosfeer word dan uitgestraal na die buitenste ruim as hitte golwe.

Koolsuurgas

Die veldtog teen koolsuurgas (CO2) gaan oor die 16.7% of 9.2% (bronne verskil) wat deur uitstraling vanaf die aarde se oppervlakte regstreeks na die buitenste ruim ontsnap. Die relatiewe klein persentasie verminder die impak wat ekstra koolsuurgas het op globale verwarming. Dit is moontlik dat koolsuurgas en ander gasse 'n invloed het op die energie vrystelling van die atmosfeer na die buitenste ruim. Koolsuurgas is swaarder (44.0kg/kmol) as suurstof (32.0kg/mol) en stikstof (28.0kg/mol), maar sak nie veel af na onder nie (Carbon dioxide atmospheric vertical profiles).

Koolsuurgas absorbeer of weerkaats golwe by 2.6μm, 4.3μm en 15μm. Die eerste twee is nie van belang nie, want die aarde straal baie min energie uit by die golf lengtes. 'n Klein hoeveelheid koolsuurgas absorbeer alreeds omtrent al die energie by 15μm, en ekstra koolsuurgas absorbeer net 'n bietjie meer. Onderstaande grafiek uit The greenhouse effect and carbon dioxide toon blokkasie van die aarde se hitte uitstraling deur koolsuurgas rondom 15μm. Die blou lyn is vir huidige koolsuurgas vlakke, en die pers lyn is die ekstra blokkasie vir 'n verdubbeling van die koolsuurgas. Die gedeelte van die pers lyn bo zero word afgetrek van die gedeelte onder zero vir die netto effek. Dit lyk of meer koolsuurgas verwarming effens verminder.



Atome absorbeer sigbare en ultra-voilet uitstraling (elektromagnetiese golwe) deurdat elektrone na 'n hoër omwentelings baan beweeg. Infrarooi hitte uitstraling bevat nie genoeg energie daarvoor nie, en word geabsorbeer deur vibrasies in molekules (Infrared Spectroscopy). Die energie kan weer by dieselfde frekwensie uitgestraal word. As hitte golwe van die aard oppervlakte deur die atmosfeer her-uitgestraal word, word dit in alle rigtings verstrooi, en kan na verskeie weerkaatsings uiteindelik na die aarde teruggestuur word. 'n Hoër lug temperatuur beteken 'n vinniger beweging van molekules. Die interne vibrasies kan ook omgeskep word na molekule versnelling in botsings met ander molekules, wat beteken dat die uitstraling geabsorbeer word, en die atmosfeer se temperatuur verhoog. Uitstraling wat deur koolsuurgas geabsorbeer word, kan daardeur aan suurstof en stikstof molekules oorgedra word.

Oorsaak en gevolg

Dit is duidelik uit historiese grafieke van koolsuurgas en die temperatuur van die aarde, dat temperatuur eers opgaan, en daarna koolsuurgas vlakke. Daar is welbekende redes waarom 'n warmer klimaat na meer koolsuurgas vrystellings lei in die natuur. Gedurende 'n ys tydperk sal baie min koolsuurgas in die natuur geproduseer word. Mense staar hulle vas teen die gelyktydige op- en afgaan van temperatuur en koolsuurgas, en vind dit moeilik om tussen oorsaak en gevolg te onderskei. Koolsuurgas het die laaste honderd jaar buitengewoon gestyg, wat waarskynlik direk of indirek (deur temperature op ander maniere op te stoot) deur die mens veroorsaak word (CO2 and other Greenhouse Gas Emissions).

Plante aborbeer koolsuurgas

Die feit dat koolsuurgas net 0.04% van die atmosfeer uitmaak, dui aan dat plante omtrent alles absorbeer. Dit lyk waarskynlik dat plante groei beperk word deur die beskikbare hoeveelheid koolsuurgas. As daar meer koolsuurgas is, behoort daar meer plante groei te wees. Daar kan ander faktore wees wat plante groei beperk, soos droogte en ontbossing deur die mens, wat verhoed dat plante al die koolsuurgas absorbeer.

Satelliete wat CO2 meet wys hoë konsentrasies oor die Amazon. Onderstaande kaart is van NASA se satelliet genaamd die Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) wat CO2 vlakke in die atmosfeer gemeet het van 1 Oktober tot 11 November 2014.

Dit is eienaardig dat koolsuurgas hoog is oor reën oerwoude wat yl bevolk is. Dit kan mense wees wat oerwoude afbrand vir menslike verbouing. Oerwoude wat lank bestaan bereik moontlik 'n ewewig waarin net soveel koolsuurgas deur groeiende plante geabsorbeer word, as wat deur verrottende plante vrygestel word. As die temperatuur opgaan sal verrotting versnel, wat meer koolsuurgas vrystel, totdat meer plante groei om die ekstra koolsuurgas te absorbeer, en 'n nuwe ewewig bereik word. Oor 'n lang tyd kan koolsuurgas gestoor word as steenkool of gas, wat beteken dat plante meer koolsuurgas absorbeer as vrystel.



Temperatuur regulering deur water

Konveksie bestaan uit wind en vog wat warmte van die aarde se oppervlakte optel, en dit by die boonste lae van die atmosfeer afgee aan die buitenste ruim. Wanneer water uit die oseane verdamp absorbeer dit latente hitte (teen konstante temperatuur). Die hitte word vrygestel wanneer wolke gevorm word. Vog wat verdamp en kondenseer is 'n hoogs doeltreffende manier om hitte weg te lei, en word in rekenaars gebruik vir verkoeling - Heat pipe. Wolke koel ook die aarde af deur sonlig te weerkaats.

Die lyk of die latente hitte 'n belangrike rol speel in die regulering van die aarde se temperatuur. Wanneer dit warmer is, verdamp meer water van oseane en damme. Warm lug kan meer vog dra as koue lug (lugreëlings skei water uit soos wat die lug verkoel word). Gedurende 'n ys tydperk sal die verlies van die aarde se warmte weens latente hitte baie laag wees, en die uitstekende insulasie eienskappe van lug oorheers. Dit word teengewerk deur weerkaatsing van sonlig deur die ys.

Onderstaande grafiek toon die groot toename in lug se vog inhoud met temperatuur (data van Lenntech). Dit is vir 'n konstante 60% van die maksimum vog wat lug kan bevat. As warm lug droog is, is die vog inhoud nie noodwendig meer nie.



Suid Afrika se temperatuur styg sedert 1980: Trading Economics.

Suid Afrika se reënval het min verander oor 100 jaar. Die jare met hoë temperature het minder reën: Trading Economics. Reën is nodig om die aarde se verkoelings siklus te voltooi. Vog wat van die aarde verdamp, neem hitte na die atmosfeer en die buitenste ruimte. As dit nie reën nie, styg die temperatuur. Bos brande kom dikwels voor op warm dae wat wolke met rook deeltjies besaai.

Rook

Mense filter die rook uit wat steenkool kragstasies produseer. Hoe helderder lug is, hoe meer bak die son die aarde. Vulkane verkoel die aarde se temperatuur vir 'n paar jaar - Berkeley Earth. 'n Honderd jaar gelede het mense meer rook gemaak weens hout vure en stoom enjins. Die skoon lug veldtog kon bygedra het tot hoër temperature. Gedurende warm droë weer is daar meer veld brande, wat nou deur die mens verhoed word. Rook kan help dat wolke reën produseer: "Tiny cloud droplets form on cloud condensation nuclei (e.g. salt particles, dust, soot)" - Weather Modification Association. As rook nodig is vir bogemelde verkoeling deur water kondensasie, dan gaan die planeet eenvoudig warmer word totdat die rook onstaan.

Analysis of wildfire smoke will help calibrate climate models - Phys.org.

Can a million tons of sulfur dioxide combat combat climate change? - Wired.

Global Rainfall - Clive Best. Rainfall increased in 1820s, and temperatures fell initially, but then normalized. Temperatures rose from 1860 to 1980 without an increase in rainfall. Since 1980 temperatures and rainfall increased.

.... Has volcanic activity been increasing? - Smithsonian. There was in increase in volanic activity in the 1820s. The number of eruptions have increased over centuries.

Vog bronne

"Raising the roof on climate change! Olivier Faber, Co-Founder @roof_scapes says his team is ready to add heat-absorbing materials to the famed zinc rooftops of #Paris to tackle hotter temps." - Twitter. The silver roofs reflect sunlight, which should make it cool. Plants cool down by releasing water vapour into the air, which absorbs latent energy from the surroudings. Learn About Heat Islands - US Environmental Protection Agency: "Trees, vegetation, and water bodies tend to cool the air by providing shade, transpiring water from plant leaves, and evaporating surface water, respectively. Hard, dry surfaces in urban areas – such as roofs, sidewalks, roads, buildings, and parking lots – provide less shade and moisture than natural landscapes and therefore contribute to higher temperatures."

Climate change isn't producing expected increase in atmospheric moisture over dry regions: Study - Phys.org. Vegetation is required to supply the moisture. The benefit of forests is the supply of moisture. Humans have eliminated a lot of forests, and vegetation in cities.

Historiese koolsuurgas vlakke

The Vostok Ice Core and the 14,000 Year CO2 Time Lag - Euanmearns.

Die grafiek onder, van Wikipedia, wys temperatuur (blou), koolsuurgas (groen), en stof deeltjies (rooi) oor 400,000 jaar. Elke skaal verdeling is 50,000 jaar, wat 'n baie lang tyd is. Dis moeilik om oor die lang tydskaal oorsaak en gevolg te sien. Dit lyk of koolsuurgas na die temperatuur opgaan en val.

Die stof konsentrasie is hoog wanneer die aarde koel is. Gewoonlik is veld brande meer algemeen met hoër temperature. Dalk kom die stof van vulkaniese uitbarstings. As die aarde afkoel, krimp die aardkors moontlik, en druk meer magma uit as lava. Dit is bekend dat vulkaniese uitbarstings die aarde afkoel. Wanneer die uitbarstings ophou, styg die temperatuur, en meer koolsuurgas word geproduseer.



Chart of 420,000 year history: temperature, CO2, sea level - John Englander. The CO2 level is shot up, but temperatures have not increased in proportion. Ice would tend to keep temperatures down while it melts due the large latent energy absorbs. When all the ice has melted, it would no longer hold temperatures down. Normally, higher temperatures would lead to more moisture absorption into the air, more rain, and more plant growth to absorb the CO2. This feedback mechanism is not working.

"Here is global temperature for the past 350,000 years. Note that the three inter-glacial periods before the present one were all warmer than the Holocene, yet corals and polar bears survived through them. Note CO2 was lowest in Earth’s history 20,000 years ago. We fixed that." - Twitter. Even on this long term chart, it can be seen that temperature (red) leads CO2 (blue).

See vlak

As 'n mens op die internet soek na voorbeelde van hoe die seevlak die afgelope eeu gestyg het, kry 'n mens 'n klomp webwerwe wat 'n kaart wys van hoe die seevlak sal verander in die toekoms as die seevlak soveel meter styg. Hier is een seevlak meting in Florida sedert 1947: St Petersburg - Forbes. Daarvolgens versnel die styging in die seevlak, tensy die land sak. Die styging lyk soos 6.5mm per jaar die laaste twee dekades.

Global warming the ‘latest excuse’ by socialists who ‘hate’ capitalism - Sky News Australia, Youtube. Tuvalu Not Experiencing Increased Sea Level Rise - Research Gate.

Sea levels - Maldives - Climate Data. Sea levels at Maldives are rising at 3.5mm per year. The Maldives formed from volcanic eruptions where a rift in the earth's crust opens up, due to the Indian tectonic plate shifting northwards. Are the islands sinking relative to the earth's crust?

Saturday 24 Aug 2019

The Amazon forest fire poses an interesting question: To what extent does the accumulated carbon in the trees turn into charcoal, or stored carbon? When the forest regrows it absorbs carbon dioxide anew. The fire also releases carbon dioxide. Trying to find a formula for the carbon being stored seems to be more complex (How Fire Works).

Contrary to the popular belief that a rain forest absorbs oygen, a mature forest presumably reaches an equilibrium in which as much oxygen is released by growing trees, as is absorbed by the fungu and bacteria that live on the decomposing wood (Decomposition and decay). In that case, the more humans release carbon dioxide, the more wild fires are required to restart the carbon dioxide absorption cycle.

Wind turbines

If Solar And Wind Are So Cheap, Why Are They Making Electricity So Expensive? - Forbes.

Even as Wind Power Rises, It Falls Under a Political Cloud - NY Times. "Wind farms, with their rapid geographic spread and technological advances, are reshaping the electric system, defying skepticism that they are steady or reliable enough to displace conventional power plants". Dit is baie moeilik om 'n grafiek te kry van windplase se uitset teenoor tyd, omdat verskaffers nie wil wys hoe wisselvallig dit is nie. Hier is een poging: Wind Blowing Nowhere - Euan Matters. Elke keer as 'n windplaas se uitset val moet die elektrisiteit van ander bronne kom.

Dit is moeilik om statistiek op die internet te kry van die benutting van wind energie. Die term opwekking ("generation") word gewoonlik gebruik, sonder om te verklaar of die opgewekte elektrisiteit gebruik word, deur dit aan kliente te verkoop. Die beskikbare, opgewekte uitset word dikwels gegee as 20% tot 30% van die maksimum kapasiteit. Dit beteken niks as die elektrisiteit nie gebruik word nie. In een verslag (Ontario Energy Report) word 'n wind opwek uitset van 1.8TWh, en 'n wind kapasiteit van 3823MW gegee. Dit is 'n benutting van 5.4%.

True costs of wind electricity - Judith Curry. Sien "Intermittent backup": "As the proportion of wind generation increases, grids less blessed than Ontario have to add additional standby capacity of some sort. ... The UK National Grid has published estimates. An analysis by the UKERC suggested 15-22% additional (standby capacity) for 10% wind production". "On the Texas ERCOT grid, wind in 2014 was 10.6% of generation. For ERCOT’s summer gas peakers, wind’s ‘true’ cost is about ($121+ 0.15*$128) $140/MWh. Little wonder the Austin, Texas utility finds its renewable generation portfolio loses $80 million, while its fossil fuel generation earns $180 million annually at grid wholesale electricity rates!".

In Europa word petroleum produkte en gas algemeen gebruik vir verhitting (Eurostat). Net 21.7% (2015) van die energie kom van elektrisiteit, wat as volg opgewek word: 48.1% brandstof, 26.4% kernkrag, 11.9% hidro, 9.7% wind, 3.5% son (Eurostat). Ter wille van "groen" energie, verbrand die EU gas met duur gas turbines, en dan af en toe word die 2.1% wind en 0.8% son gebruik wanneer dit beskikbaar is.

Wind energy installations continue to grow – WWEA - Engineering News. Die kapasiteit van 539,291MW is vir maksimum wind. Die wind spoed is gewoonlik laer, en waai net party keer. As die wind aanhoudend teen maksimum waai, sou dit 3.1% van die wêreld se energie verbruik van 154,400,000GWh (2016) verskaf. As hulle 25% benutting uit die wind plase kry, sou dit 0.77% wees.

Solar energy - BP. Teen 301 GW (2016) en maksimum sonlig van 7 uur per dag verskaf dit 0.50% van die wêreld se energie verbruik van 154,400,000GWh (2016).

Op Twitter 2 Aug 2018: Will Kennedy @wenkennedy: "The world now has a trillion watts of renewable energy. Just a number. The important thing: the second trillion will cost half as much as the first and take just five years to install.": grafiek. As die 1013GW in 2018 verwys na kapasiteit, en hernubare energie 25% van die tyd beskikbaar is, dan lewer dit 2,218,000GWh se elektrisiteit, wat 1.4% persent van die wêreld se totale energie vebruik van 154,400,000GWh (2016) is. Verder word ander energie bronne in stand gehou vir wanneer die hernubare energie nie beskikbaar is nie.

For all the propaganda on green energy, the vast majority of energy still comes from oil and natural gas. U.S. primary energy consumption by major sources, 1950-2017 - EIA. Wind contributes 2.3% and solar 0.66%: U.S. energy consumption by energy sources, 2017 - EIA.

Booming Green Power Not Enough to Meet Climate Targets, IEA Says - Bloomberg. "This is your last free article". The real issue the media is not covering is that wind and solar power are only available around 25% of the time, which makes the capital cost 4 times more expensive in terms of energy delivered. The remaining 75% of the time, gas turbines are used. The renewable sources cannot achieve more than 25% of the supply, and the backup gas turbines must have enough capacity to provide 100% of demand, for when the wind and sun is not available.

From 9 Sep 2016: WHY “Green” Energy Is Futile, In One Lesson - InsideEVs.

On Twitter 22 April 2020: Albert Stienstra @AlbertStienstra: "This is what happens when you use wind & solar on the grid: you use more fossil fuel. The U.S. shows it, Germany shows it. Your choice to solve this is to use trees or nuclear." chart

In 2020 Denmark produced 16,330GWh wind power in 2020, which was 56.10% of their 29,111GWh electricity production (Danish Energy Agency). They also import electricity of 18,594GWh, and exported 11,711GWh. Therefore wind power provided 45.37% of the internal consumption. How much of the wind power is exported is unknown. In the extreme case, if all exports is wind power, then wind provided 12.83% of total consumption. Capacity utilization for wind power is about 30% (onshore 4534MW, offshore 1700W). If you have a lot of excess capacity, it can provide more than 30% of your power, but that is expensive.

"Wind Power Fails On Every Count": Oxford Scientist Explains The Math - Zero Hedge. Politicians have no particular qualifications. Whenever they support a cause, assume they have no understanding of it.

Son energie

From 25 Oct 2020: Elon Musk: Tesla’s next ‘killer product’ is Solar Roof - Electrek. What happens if it is overcast for more than a day, and the Tesla Powerwall battery runs flat? If a roof was covered with mirror which reflected most of the sun's energy back into space it might reduce global warming better. If the solar roof absorbs most of the sun's energy, but only converts 10% to electricity, it absorb 90% of the sun's energy. Due to excess capacity, the solar roof absorbs more solar energy than is necessary. If the gas turbine of a power company operates at 30% efficiency, and only runs when power is required, that would save the planet much better if the roof were reflective. This applies to all solar panels, which are around 15% efficient.

Finally, a new bill calls for tax credits for integrated solar roofs - Electrek. Usually electric (PV) solar panels come with specifications which include efficiency. The traditional panels convert 15% to 20% of the sun's energy into electricity. The Tesla solar roofs do not provide the information, but it appears to be 5% (PV Magazine). That means up to 95% of the sun's energy is converted into heat. Unlike the questionable indirect heating by carbondioxide, solar panels heat up the earth directly. Which shows how absolutely incompetent politicians are.

A plant reflects 47% of the sun's energy according to Photosynthetic efficiency - Wikipedia.

From 8 Feb 2021: EIA projects renewables share of U.S. electricity generation mix will double by 2050 - US Energy Information Administration. Wind and son power is only available for 25% of the time. The remaining 75% requires a backup source that is on 100% of the time in case the wind stops blowing or the sun disappears behind clouds. Wind and solar cannot provide more than 25%. Solar panels absorb 96% of the sun's energy, of which 15% is turned into electricity. Thus 80% turns into heat, which heats the earth up more than a reflective surface.

Op Twitter: ockhams-scheermes @ockhams: "We moeten zonnepanelen bouwen in de woestijn. Dat is toch een strak idee, zoveel zon. Maar zoveel zand ook. Green-pipe-dreams. Weet je wat wel blijft werken in en na een zandstorm? Een kerncentrale. #klimaat #klimaatzaak": foto, foto, foto.

From 13 Apr 2021: Could Hydrogen Power Our Future? Green Hydrogen Explained - Youtube. A fuel cell is 40% to 60% efficient. Electrolysis is 70% to 80% efficient. Thus to convert electricity to hydrogen, back to electricity returns 28% to 48% of the original energy. Solar panels are about 15% efficient at converting solar energy into electricity, which after converting to hydrogen would be 4.2% to 7.2%. Wind turbines could be used to generate hydrogen, but would at least double the cost of the electricity. Fuel cells are expensive.

From 22 Apr 2021: At the end of 2020 the US had 97,275MW of installed electric solar panels (Wikipedia), which produces about 204GWh per year, only part of which is actually used. This is approximately 15% of the solar power that falls on the panels. If 80% is converted into heat 7 hours per day, 300 days per year, that heats the earth with 1,089,000 GWh per year. Coal-fired power plants generated 774,000 GWh (EIA) of electricity. Efficiency is about 37%. If the rest is wasted heat, then the earth is heated with 1,318,000 GWh per year. The direct heating of the earth by solar panels is almost as big as by coal power. Plants want to know why you cutting off their supply of carbon dioxide, and heating the earth up directly.

China had 253GW of solar capacity at the end of 2020. If this electrical output is 15% of the sun's energy, and 80% is converted into heat, that heats up the earth with 253GW x 80%/15% x 7 hours x ~300 days = 2,834,000GWh per year. China's coal capacity was 1080GW, which could generate a maximum of 9,461,000GWh did provide 5,200,000GWh. If the plants are 33% efficient, the heat generated is 10,400,000GWh.

The efficiency of solar panels means the direct heating of the earth is 80%/15% = 5.3x the electricity generated. Consumers only use part of the capacity of their solar panels. It they use 50% of the capacity, the direct heating is 10.7x. The direct heating by coal-fired power plants is 63%/37% = 1.7x the electricity generated. If only 10% of the warm water from solar water heaters is used, it means 90% of the sun's energy collected by the panels heats up the earth.

As regerings wit of silver dak verf subsidieer, hoeveel koeler sal die aarde wees? In die VSA is daar 140M huise met 'n gemiddelde oppervlakte van 200mm² = 28,000 miljoen m². Die son se energie wat op die aarde se oppervlakte val is omtrent 1000W/m². As 'n dak van donker na lig verander word, kan sê 50% weerkaats word. Die energie wat weerkaats word is 28Gm² x 500W/m² x 7 uur x 300 dae = 29,400,000 GWh per jaar. Steenkool kragstasies in die VSA wek 774,000 GWh elektrisiteit op per jaar (EIA). Doeltreffendheid is 37%. Die res is hitte wat vrygestel word, wat die aarde met 1,318,000 GWh per jaar verhit. 'n Ligte dak kleur kan 22x meer verkoeling gee as die hitte wat steenkool kragstasie vrystel.

The EU had solar power capacity of 257 gigawatt in 2023. The amount of heat generated by the panels is about 80%/15% more, which is energy of 1371 GW x 7 hours x say 250 days sunshine = 2400 TWh per year. EU electricity demand was 2,696 TWh in 2023. The heat from solar panels is as big as all the electricity used.

From 5 May 2022: EU Countries Call for 1,000 Gigawatts of Solar Energy by 2030 - Bloomberg. If the sun's power matches the 1000W rating of the panels, the 1000 GW could deliver approximately 1000 GW x 25% x 24hrs x 300 days sunshine = 1800 TWh per year. Due to over capacity only part of it would be actually consumed. If the panels are 15% efficient, it would generate heat of 1800 TWh x 80%/15% = 9,600 TWh. The total electricity generated in the EU in 2021 from nuclear 731 TWh + natural gas 550 TWh + lignite 227 TWh + coal 193 TWh = 1701 TWh (Eurostat). If the generation is 33% efficient, the heat generated is 3400 TWh. The solar panels planned for 2030 would heat the earth 2.8x more than that. This is what happens when you vote for politicians with no qualifications.

This Tesla energy ecosystem home gives us a glimpse at the house of the future - Electrek. Die 20kW solar roof (efficiency 5%) and 15kW solar panels (efficiency 15%) produces heat of 20kW x 90%/5% = 360kW and 15kW x 80%/15% = 80kW. Unless the roof has very thick insulation, air conditioning is required to neutralize the heat from the solar roof. One house heats up the planet with 440kW.

.... .... How much rain is required to cool down the earth for this one house? The energy involved per year is 440kW x 7 hours x 300 days = 924,000kWh x 60 minutes x 60 seconds = 3,326,400,000kJ. The latent heat of vaporization for water is 2256kJ/kg. Thus it takes 1,474,468 litres of rain water per year.

.... Coppell, Texas receives an average 38 inches x 25.4mm = 0.965m of rain per year. If the plot size is 1000m2, then it receives 1000m3 rain per year = 1,000,000 litres per year.

"The world installed 239 GW of new solar in 2022, an increase of 45% from 2021. With over 1.2 TW of solar now installed worldwide, solar will generate 1,612 TWh of electricity globally over the course of 2023 – equivalent to 57% of the European Union's total electricity demand." - New report: Solar for the masses as global solar rooftops skyrocket by 50% - SolarPowerEurope. These solar panels create heat equal to 80%/15% = 5.3x the electricity generated, which is absorbed from the sun's energy. Humans are basically covering the earth with black panels which raises the earth's temperature. Although the area of the solar panels is only 1/5,000 of the earth's land surface.

Ander

Huge Icelandic Eruption Mimics Industrial Emissions - Scientific American. "The Holuhraun lava field explosion of 2014 and 2015 released enormous amounts of sulfur dioxide."

Our Sun is about to get unusually cool, researchers predict - News.co.au. "The Baltic Sea was covered in ice — so much so that the Swedish army was able to march across it to invade Denmark in 1658". Dit verklaar nie waarom die stigter van Suid Afrika, Jan van Riebeeck, se Kasteel van Goeie Hoop in 1666-1679 langs die see gebou was, en dit vandag 'n paar kilometer van die see af is nie.

Detailed analysis of 100% solar, wind and hydro plan has many flaws and crazy costs - Next Big Future.

9 Aug 2018 on Twitter: Marcel Crok @marcelcrok: "Voor al die kijkers van @nieuwsuur en @nos en voor lezers van @nrc en @volkskrant en @trouw die nu denken dat hittegolven 'onze' schuld zijn (CO2), hier ter relativering de data voor de VS over de afgelopen eeuw. De jaren '30 tornen overal bovenuit. https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-high-and-low-temperatures …": chart.

3 Decades Of Alarmists’ False Climate Prophesies Unfulfilled - Principia Scientific International.

Earth's "Big Freeze" Looms As Sun Remains Devoid Of Sunspots For Most Of 2018 - Zero Hedge.

NASA Releases Stunning Snapshot Of The World On Fire - Forbes.

Coal plant offsets with carbon capture means covering 89 percent of the US in forests - Next Big Future. "A one-gigawatt coal-fired plant would require a new forest larger than the state of Maryland for all of its carbon emissions to be neutralized." A 1GW coal-fired plant generates 1GW x 24 hours x 365 days x 30 years = 262,800GWh over 30 years. If it takes 733 tons of coal to generate 1GWh (Quora), then 192,630,000 tons of coal is required over 30 years. If 2.5 tons of green tree is required for 1 ton of coal (FAO), then 481,600,000 tons of tree is required. If a tree reaches a weight of 1 ton after 30 years (Virginia Cooperative Extension), and occupies 10m˛ in area, then an area of 4816,000,000 m˛ = 4816 km˛ is required. Maryland is 32 134 km˛. So it would require 15% of Maryland to turn wood into a renewable energy for 1GW. To make all of the US coal generation of 1,207,901GWh in 2017 renewable would require planting trees over 664,000km˛/9,834,000km˛ = 6.7% of the US. Trees would need be planted at an enormous rate.

Empress Trees Are The Best Tree to Solve Global Carbon Dioxide Problem - Next Big Future.

Amazon forests failing to keep up with climate change - Phys.org. When temperatures rise, there should be more moisture in the air, and more rain. Something is preventing the rain, like insufficient smoke particles to seed the clouds.

Smallholder clearing found to be dominant reason for forest loss in the Congo Basin - Phys.org. The dominant reason is uncontrolled population growth since Europeans eliminated the natural limits to population growth.

China Starts Operating Most Powerful Single Nuclear Reacot - Next Big Future.

Solar Minimum is Coming - Nasa.

An Unusually Warm February in the United Kingdom - Nasa. If you clean the air, there is not enough smoke to seed the clouds.

How The Electric Bus Was Killed Off 100 Years Ago - DesmogUK.

This Chinese city has more than 16,000 electric buses - World Economic Forum.

Thermal Energy Stored for Month in New Material - Next Big Future.

Energy Production & Changing Energy Sources - Our World in Data.

China Authorizes Building Four New Nuclear Reactors and India Commits to Six - NextBigFuture.

'It looked like an ocean': Severe Midwest flooding could last all spring - USA Today. Higher temperatures should lead to more rain. It is the earth's temperature regulator.

Energy Lies Believed By Intelligent People - Next Big Future.

DOE Funds 2022 First Demo for Factory Mass Producible Nuclear Power - Next Big Future.

Solar energy investors may pivot away from high-cost projects - Moneyweb. Gewoonlik werk groot skaal projekte goedkoper uit, soos massa vervaardiging. Die feit dat die publiek sonpanele baie goedkoper kan koop as Eskom dui aan dat iets fout is met die proses.

Startling study finds US fertilizer industry emits 100 times more methane than estimated - New Atlas.

How Much CO2 Does A Single Volcano Emit? - Forbes. Do volcanoes really emit more CO2 than humans? - ZmeScience.

A nuclear future awaits South Africa - IOL.

Green flops: Why some promising cleantech ideas didn’t work out - Moneyweb.

On Twitter: Daniel Lacalle @dlacalle_IA: "Europe is greener than in 1900": Max Roser @MaxCRoser: "The research project built this very good website where you can zoom in each region and compare 1900 with 2010: Wur.nl 1900 on the left vs 2010 on the right": 1900 map, 2010 map.

From 11 Nov 2012: Scientists detect carbon dioxide accumulation at the edge of space (Update) - Phys.org: "The same properties of CO2 that cause it to trap heat in the troposphere (<15 km) make it an efficient cooler at higher altitudes."

From 4 Feb 2019: WHY “Green” Energy Is Futile, In One Lesson - Climatism.

On Twitter 11 Feb 2020: Luis B. Aramburu @luisbaram: "Replying to @nvisionthing_au. That sounds nice but is in fact not supported by the data. Fossil fuels have been growing faster than everything else for the past 20 years." chart.

On Twitter 21 Feb 2020: Ferg @ferg_trader: "Natural gas plants might end up being like buying a cheap printer. You pat yourself on the back for saving money. But it costs you a ton over time as the printer cartridges get more and more expensive." chart

From 21 Apr 2020: Michael Moore Presents: Planet of the Humans - Youtube.

Indonesia Consider Molten Salt Nuclear Reactor Cheaper than Coal Power - Next Big Future.

From 29 Mar 2021: Biden mulls giving farmers billions to fight climate change. Even farmers are unsure about the plan. - Politico. "USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) would help offer a chance to buy credits to offset their pollution by supporting farmers who plant an extra batch of crops such as cereal rye and clover or make other on-farm changes to help absorb carbon dioxide into the soil".

US wind turbine capacity is 118GW (EIA). If wind is available 25% of the time, then 75% must be supplied by gas turbines. If the efficiency of the gas tubine is 33% (Wartsila), then the heat produced is 1,574,000 GWh per year at full capacity. Without the wind turbines the heat produced is 2,099,000 GWh. Thus the wind turbines saves 525,000 GWh in the direct heating of the earth.

High costs of wind, solar, and battery system in North Ears US - Windtaskforce.

Liquid metal proven to be cheap and efficient CO2 converter - Phys.org. At $100 per ton of CO2, that works out to $0.10 per kg CO2 x 0.41kg CO2 per kWh produced by natural gas = $0.041/kWh. A US gas power plant costs $0.02833/kWh (EIA). For coal that would be x 1.0kg/kWh = $0.10/kWh to remove CO2. Coal power used to be very cheap before the recent price rise at ~$0.03666/kwh. You would expect for it to take more energy to convert CO2 back to oxygen, that the energy obtained by burning oxygen, thus making it a useless exercise.

"In this 9-minute interview/debate on @GBNEWS, available in full on Twitter for the first time, I explain why COP 26 is not a progressive scientific conference but an anti-human, primitive-religious attempt to commit mass genocide." - Twitter.

Scientists find the climate and health impacts of natural gas stoves are greater than previously thought - Phys.org. "A new Stanford-led study reveals that the methane leaking from natural gas-burning stoves inside U.S. homes has a climate impact comparable to the carbon dioxide emissions from about 500,000 gasoline-powered cars."

"#India expected to commission 10 thermal #coal power plants in 2022-23 adding 7,010 MW. 39 thermal coal plants under construction - Twitter.

From 15 March 2022: Dr. Patrick Moore-- Carbon and Climate Catastrophe - Youtube.

Variations of the Earth's surface temperature. Earth's temperature declined up to 1920, increased to 1945, declined to 1975, and has increased since. It declined during enormous industrial development from 1945 to 1975, which is odd. Scrubbers were first used in 1967 in the US. "The Clean Air Act of 1970 imposed more stringent pollution control requirements on coal-fired power plants" - Gemi.wiki. Treehugger: "The U.S. Department of Energy started its Clean Coal Technology Demonstration Program in 1986".

Natural Carbon Capture Is A Dead End - Medium.

The dirty "Net Zero" carbon myth (that everyone believes) - Youtube.

Europe's electricity capacity from 2000 to 2022 (Eurostat): Combustible fuels from 340GW to 388GW (427GW in 2012), hydro 135GW to 151GW, wind 12GW to 177GW, solar 0GW to 138GW, nuclear 125GW to 106GW. Net electricity generation (Eurostat) went from 2513TWh in 2000 to 2664TWh in 2022. Electricity use declined from 2008, perhaps due to the higher price as a result of superfluous wind and solar power. A massive increase in wind and solar power, without a reduction in fossil fuel capacity.

Hydrogen Will Not Save Us. Here's Why. - Youtube.

From 28 June 2023: Antarctic sea ice reaches an early winter record low in June 2023 - Climate.gov.

UK

From 5 Jan 2023: "British grid hits record 88% zero-carbon power generation" - Bloomberg, Twitter.

According to UK energy in brief, the coal and gas capacity declined from 55.7GW in 1996 to 44.4GW in 2021, whilst renewable increased from 2.3GW to 49.7GW. Utilization of renewable capacity was 122.2TWh/435.4TWh = 28%. Utilization of fossil fuel capacity was 140.1TWh/388.9TWh = 36%. In 1996 utilization of fossil fuel capacity was 251GWh/488TWh = 51%. A lot of fossil fuel remained in standby so that wind power could be used. The maximum fossil fuel energy of 388.9TWh must remain more than 308TWh demand, for when the wind and sun is not available.

Electricity generation by source in 2021 (increase from 1990): coal 6.5TWh (-223.4TWh), oil & other fuels 10.9TWh (-9.8TWh), gas 122.7TWh (+122.3TWh), nuclear 45.9TWh (-17.3TWh), hydro 5.5TWh, wind & solar 76.8TWh, other renewables 39.9TWh. Wind and solar provided 25% of the total. Natural gas emits about 43% of the CO2 that coal emits for the same output power.

Natural gas demand increased from 597.0TWh in 1990 to 856.7TWh in 2021, an increase of 259.7TWh. Despite the massive increase in wind and solar power, more gas was used.

Demand for road diesel increased from 10.37MT in 1990 to 21.727Mt in 2021, an increase of 11.357Mt. Demand for petrol declined from 24.3Mt to 10.159Mt, a decline of -14.141Mt.

UK power demand to soar on plans to end gas home heating - research - When there is no wind or sun they are probably going to generate electricity using gas turbines, at 30% efficiency, compared to close to 100% efficiency with heating. It will require 3 times more gas. Unless they use an air conditioner in reverse (heat pump), which delivers about 3 times more heat than the electricity consumed.

Germany

On Twitter: Mike Shellenberger @ShellenbergerMD: "Replying to @Tedlinknews French electricity (75% nuclear) produces one-tenth the emissions of German electricity at little over half the cost. The great nuclear vs renewables experiment is over. Nuclear won. Somebody tell Germany before it wipes out what remains of its wildlife.": chart, chart, chart.

From 15 Jun 2021: Germany Solar and Wind is Triple the Cost of France’s Nuclear and Will Last Half as Long - Next Big Future.

Germany needs electricity production of about 600TWh (Germany’s energy consumption and power mix in charts). The maximum energy available from permanent sources: nuclear 71TWh, lignite 178TWh, coal 208TWh, gas 267TWh, oil 39TWh, hydro 43TWh, biomass 75TWh = total 881TWh, which is enough to supply all the energy. Energy supplied by intermittent sources: wind 71TWh, solar 33TWh. To what extent are the turbines of the permanent energy sources continuously spinning whilst power is supplied by wind and solar? Governments like to show on charts how green energy has increased. The other sources could be permanently on, but just not connected.

17 April 2023: Germany has closed it nuclear power plants. In 2021 electricity sources are listed below (Wikipedia). The large fossil fuel capacity is required as backup power for the intermittent wind and solar.


German auto lobby recommends ending all fossil fuel sales by 2045 - Electrek. To replace mineral oil consumption of 2,641 PJ at 25% vehicle efficiency, requires electricity generation of 269,000GWh. (Mining Report).

In 2023 Germany produced 514.6TWh of electricity, down -11.0% from 2022. Utilization of solar power was 61,100GWh/(79.2GW x 365 days x 24 hours) = 8.8% (Desatis, Clean Energy Wire), of wind power 137,800GWh/(68.8GW x 365 x 24) = 22.9%, Lignite 87,500GWh/(18.9GW x 365 x 24) = 53%, and natural gas 80,000GWh/(34.8GW x 365 x 24) = 26%. The last two permanent sources have excess capacity of 302,000 which is enough backup for the 199,000GWh from solar and wind. Europe does not have enough gas for own use.

Australia

From 26 Jun 2020: Australia approves 720 MW solar farm with massive battery - PV Magazine. These solar battery projects are the big jokes of our time. This project will provide an efficiency of (1800GWh/24h/365d)/720W = 28.5%. This is because the sun is only available for about 25% of the time. The battery has enough capacity for 400WMh/720MW = 33 minutes of storage, which is enough for small clouds, not overcast conditions. The cost of the electricity is A$768/1800GWh = $0.427/kWh or US$0.294/kWh (wholesale or retail?), but only for 25% of the time. For the other 75%, gas turbines are required. You have to add the cost of the two to get the actual electricity tariff. The electricity price in Australia varies from 20.62c/kWh to 33.71c/kWh (Canstar Blue). The average electricity price in the US is $0.132/KWh.

Shell to build 200MW, 400MWH massive battery system in Australia - Interesting Engineering. It can store 400MWh/43.7TWh = 4.8 minutes of Victoria electricity. That is not even enough time to start up gas turbines when the wind stops blowing.

28 April 2023: Renewables drive lower prices, record low emissions - AEMO. "AEMO’s Q1 Quarterly Energy Dynamics report shows National Electricity Market (NEM) wholesale spot prices averaged $83 per megawatt hour (MWh) for the March quarter, down from $93/MWh and $216/MWh in the previous December and September quarters."

...."following the announcement on coal and gas price caps in December 2022". The average price by source: black coal $88/MWh, brown coal $33/MWh, gas $138/MWh, hydro $121/MWh, wind -$41/MWh, grid solar -$24/MWh. The first 8400MW of black coal was offered at $0/MWh. Who's paying to supply the free electricity? The wind and solar suppliers are paying the consumers to take their electricity. There must be some government subsidy involved. Only politicians would pay users to use wind and solar so they can pretend to be green.

...The capacity of the various sources can't be found in the report. According to Satista in 2021 the installed capacity was coal 23 201MW, wind 8815MW, water 7992MW, gas 7047MW, solar 5203MW. According to State of the energy market 2022 - Chapter 2 - National Electricity Market - Figure 2.16 electricity generation in 2021 by source: coal 128.0TWh (utilization 63%), wind 23.0GWh (utilization 30%), rooftop solar 16.2TWh, hydro 15.8TWh (utilization 23%), gas 11.2TWh (utilization 18%), solar farms 8.82TWh (utilization 19%). Unsurprisingly coal is the main source of power because it is the cheapest. The cost of solar and wind power must be added to the cost of the backup power to derive the total cost.

Brazil

Thursday 19 Sep 2024

Brazil has high temperatures of 37°C to 41°C (Zoom Earth), whilst the southern part of continents in the southern hemisphere have unusually cold weather for spring. Hot rising air around the equator, in Brazil, the southern US, and central Africa, pulls in air from the south pole over the southern parts of South America and Africa (earth.nullschool.net). Why does Brazil have drought and high temperatures?

.... "Brazil generated 91% of its electricity from clean sources in 2023, with hydro dominating the mix at 60%", "Brazil relied on fossil fuels for just 9% of its electricity in 2023" - Ember.

.... "The share of electricity generated by hydro sources has dropped from 74% in 2018 to 67% in 2023, while solar and wind sites have increased their combined share of Brazil's electricity generation pie from 9% to 22% over the same period" - Reuters.

.... "Brazil switched off two of its largest hydroelectric power plants last week due to a severe drought", "Brazil is not the only country to experience this crisis; droughts have led to a significant drop in hydropower generation worldwide" - Power Technology.

.... No up to date information can be found on the internet about Brazil's electricity supply during the drought. Instead the internet is full of how green Brazil's electricity generation is. It is obvious that "green" energy leads to high temperatures. If Brazil followed the same trend as everywhere else, it is burning more gas or diesel. To lower temperatures it needs to rain, which requires: (1) moist air from forests, and (2) smoke from coal fired power plants to seed the clouds.

.... The absurdity doesn't end there. Brazil's grid caps power from wind and solar, threatening renewable projects - Reuters. They can't use all the wind and solar generated.

.... Brazil's 45 GW of installed solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity emits heat of 500 TWh per year, which is equivalent to its annual 519 TWh of electricity consumption.



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