Tuesday 22 Oct 2019
Australian media companies protest government attacks on press freedom - WSWS.
Monday 21 Oct 2019
On Twitter: Patrick Hill @PatrickHill1677: "Wide Divergence Between S & P Level and Corp Profits - @LizAnnSonders analysis of NIPA (Profits of Private, Corp and S-Corp) - S&P level. Confirms posts of @LanceRoberts. Note divergence revision in 2002, 2009 - S & P decline likely. @DiMartinoBooth @michaellebowitz @SoberLook": chart.
On Twitter: Peter Schiff @PeterSchiff: "Senator Warren is correct that health care costs keep going up, but she is wrong as to the cause. It's government's involvement in the system that's driving costs higher. A free market in health care would have lowered costs. Her plan will result in costs rising even faster!" Politicians are like dogs chasing their own tail.
On Twitter: Boris Johnson @BorisJohnson: "This new deal means we can take back control of our laws, borders, money and trade. #GetBrexitDone". It is apartheid.
Rich Chinese outnumber wealthy Americans for first time – Credit Suisse - Moneyweb.
Booming Green Power Not Enough to Meet Climate Targets, IEA Says - Bloomberg. "This is your last free article". The real issue the media is not covering, is that wind and solar power are only available around 25% of the time, which makes the capital cost 4 times more expensive in terms of energy delivered. The remaining 75% of the time, gas turbines are used. The renewable sources cannot achieve more than 25% of the supply, and the backup gas turbines must have enough capacity to provide 100% of demand, for when the wind and sun is not available.
Op Twitter: John Kemp @JKempEnergy: "BAKER HUGHES U.S. gas rig count fell -6 to 137 last week. The number of rigs drilling for natural gas has fallen by -61 (-31%) since the start of the year. The number of active gas rigs is now at the lowest since the beginning of 2017": chart.
The US presidential candidate Tulsi Gabbard looks a bit like a native American. If she wears a traditional outfit, she could play the role of Pocahontes.
The FRED chart below compares the price of gold in yellow with US M2 money supply in blue.
Sunday 20 Oct 2019
World economy is sleepwalking into a new financial crisis, warns Mervyn King - The Guardian.
Tesla Model 3 Failed To Save Dummies In AAA Emergency Braking Test - InsideEVs.
Saturday 19 Oct 2019
Bond bubble puts global financial system at risk - FT.
US Federal Reserve starts “quantitative easing forever” - WSWS.
Exclusive: Giuliani pushed Trump administration to grant a visa to a Ukrainian official promising dirt on Democrats - CNN.
On Twitter: David Dupont @investbankinglg: "Though I agree on almost everything with him, there is one thing where I disagree with @dlacalle_IA :the fact that he thinks that dangerously inflated bubbles by central banks will never burst. He sees a prolonged period of stagnation while I see a prolong period of depression." If inflation has been around 6% for years, then depression exists already. Pushing more money into the economy creates mostly inflation, and little growth.
On Twitter: Have I Got News For You @haveigotnews: "BREAKING: Three-and-a-half years, two extensions, seven defections, 21 deselections, three prime ministers, countless amendments, two prorogations, one Supreme Court judgement, 66 million Brits losing the will to live and we’re still at square one." For UK television channels to carry on about Brexit for 3-4 years is insane. Their viewers must be brain dead.
GILL: The tab for reckless healthcare promises will be paid with your taxdollars - Toronto Sun.
On Twitter: Julian Popov @julianpopov: "The year is 2192. The British Prime Minister visits Brussels to ask for an extension of the Brexit deadline. No one remembers where this tradition originated, but every year it attracts many tourists from all over the world.". There are still UK politicians and commentators who fail to understand that referendums are not legally binding. Parliament will only have the mandate to leave the EU when members are given permission by the electorate in an election.
Friday 18 Oct 2019
REPORT: Obama Blocked State Dept Attempt To Look Into Hunter Biden in 2015 - Trending Politics.
Op Twitter: Not Jim Cramer @Not_Jim_Cramer: "Forward EPS Estimates' Hat Trick: Large, Mid, & Small Caps All Lower On The Week": chart.
On Twitter: Jesse Felder @jessefelder: "'There are signs that US equity outperformance may be running out of steam.' https://vimeo.com/366912562 by
On Twitter: Prof. Steve Hanke @steve_hanke: "Venezuela's #hyperinflation continues, with annual #inflation at 11,484%/year today, based on my accurate calculations with the use of high frequency data.": chart.
On Twitter: nonouzi @Gerrrty: "One of the five "Freedom Marches", entering #Barcelona through Meridiana Avenue. #VagaGeneral18O #Catalunya #Tsunamidemocratic": video.
Energy Department won't comply with impeachment subpoena - CNN.
Beyond Meat initiated at sell as large competitors make gains in plant-based food - Market Watch. It is possible that the main ingredients in artificial burgers mean nothing. The success could just be because of the small amount of flavouring.
Dormant for 500 Years, a Potentially Deadly Fault in California Has Started to Move - Gizmodo.
Inside the Katy Perry Convent That Sparked a Real Estate War: Never-Before-Seen Photos - Hollywood Reporter. Of all the potential problems a buyer should look out for, that is a new one.
Donald Trump Letter to CNN Promises Legal Action for "Highly Biased" News - Hollywood Reporter.
After trade talks in U.S., China ramps up Brazilian soy purchases - Reuters.
Thursday 17 Oct 2019
There are stories about a mass exodus of manufacturing out of China, due to US import restrictions. According to Trading Economics exports have remained the same for 4 years. China needs to export to pay for their imports. If exports did decline, the Yuan would weaken until exports increase again. Chinese imports into the US would look even cheaper.
The pound is surging to a 7-month high after Boris Johnson secured a Brexit deal with the EU - Business Insider SA. If the UK economy weakened because EU immigrants and investors withdrew, finalizing Brexit is not positive.
New strategy to treat Parkinson's disease - Medical Express.
British family “emotionally and psychologically destroyed” by detention in US immigration prison - WSWS.
Michael Douglas: It Would ‘Kill Me’ If My Daughter Brought Someone Older Home - US Magazine.
Inflation and debt go hand in hand. It is like a chicken and egg situation which came first? More debt causes inflation. More inflation requires more debt to pay for higher prices, for example house prices. Governments also print money to pay for debt, which adds to or locks in inflation.
On Twitter: ISABELNET @ISABELNET_SA: "Price Changes Over the Last 20 Years in the U.S. Most important things in life are getting more expensive, while toys are getting more affordable ?? https://isabelnet.com/?s=inflation. h/t @TihoBrkan #inflation #cpi #deflation #prices #economy #economics #markets": chart. Cheap imports are below CPI. The inflation basket has probably not adjusted for rising local cost making up a greater proportion of the basket.
Wednesday 16 Oct 2019
A Cheaper Way to Provide Universal Health Coverage?. Health insurance or government health provision is a fundamentally bad idea, because the healthy subsidizes the sick, and members without children subsidizes other people's children.
China Reduces Major Air Pollution By 60-72% From 2014 to 2017 - Next Big Future.
On Twitter: Peter Schiff @PeterSchiff: "My Dallas Money Show talk from Sunday Oct. 13th 2019. We've never seen anything like this. Not even under Obama https://youtu.be/7iLtsg6DAL8 via @YouTube": video.
Netflix soars after beating on earnings, despite miss on subscribers - CNBC. Net profit margin is up to 12.7%. The quarter's price/earnings is $286.26/~4x$1.47 ~ 49. They will need a lot more growth to justify the valuation. Like the whole stock market, the share price has traded sideways since the beginning of last year. On Twitter: Charlie Bilello @charliebilello: "Netflix Free Cash Flow, Trailing 12 Months...
Q3 2019: -$2.9 billion, Q3 2018: -$2.1 billion, Q3 2017: -$2.1 billion, 2016: -$1.3 billion, Q3 2015: -$0.7 billion, $NFLX". It looks like Netflix reports profits because they regard content as an asset. Does the content generate sales for that long?
In The Fed We TRUST – Part 2: What is Money? - RIA.
On Twitter: Yougle Fact @YougleFact: "Sharing": video.
On Twitter: Jim Jefferies Show @jefferiesshow: "What's the secret to happiness? Being a fucking idiot.": video.
Tuesday 15 Oct 2019
On Twitter: ISABELNET @ISABELNET_SA: "Dividends & Buybacks vs. FCF. Dividends & buybacks have exceeded free cash flow levels again, thanks to low interest rates. But companies cannot spend more than they earn forever. https://isabelnet.com/?s=dividend. h/t @SoberLook via @CapitalGroup #markets #debt #dividends #buybacks": chart.
10 Tips That Will Add 10 Years to Your Life - Daily Reckoning. By far the biggest factor is inherited genes. Before high speed transport people tended to remain in local communities, and share similar genes.
One look at this and you’ll get why Warren Buffett sits on a record cash pile - Market Watch.
Dow pops 250 points on blockbuster earnings - CNN. For example, Citigroup grew revenue by 1.0%. M2 money supply grew by 5.4%. Citigroup did not capture their share of this increase in the money in circulation. The low sales growth could be the product of lower transaction volumes x higher fees (high inflation), producing greater profits. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) revenue grew +8.1% and profit +10.0% before share buybacks. Their 2018 revenue exceeded the 2010 level for the first time, after it declined inbetween.
Monday 14 Oct 2019
Tesla Numbers Show a Sudden Drop in August and September—Report - Fortune.
Capitalism Is The Worst, Except For All The Rest – Part 3 - Advisor Perspective. The difference between modern monetary policy and traditional policy is that governments have learnt to understate the inflation they are causing, to avoid having to declare recessions.
Credit Suisse Warns That U.S. Store Closings May Worsen in 2020 - Bloomberg. This is likely due to consumers being impoverished by (actual) inflation. Compulsory medical insurance also means less money for discretionary spending.
Profit declines for Apple, Boeing, Exxon, Facebook and Micron led the S&P 500 to the first string of consecutive quarterly earnings declines since 2017 - Market Watch.
Opinion: The energy revolution is already here - Market Watch. No it isn't. According to BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2019 (page 9) wind contributed 2.0% of energy in 2018, and solar 0.94%. With wind only available some 25% of the time, 75% of the time fuel is burnt to fill the gaps.
Sunday 13 Oct 2019
On Twitter: Daniel Lacalle @dlacalle_IA: "Money printing is never neutral. It disproportionately benefits the first recipients of the money and negatively affects savers and real salaries. There is no such thing as "People's QE". It is another cronyism policy, political class benefits from the destruction of savers." It benefits the borrowers who invest it in assets like property. The loan is devalued, and the property value increased by inflation.
On Twitter: Teddy Vallee @TeddyVallee: "This is absurd": Health Insurance CPI.
IN PICTURES: The chaotic aftermath of Typhoon Hagibis - Japan Times.
Woman who bought a £1.50 bus fare with her iPhone is hit with £476 fine and a criminal record after her battery died and she couldn't prove to ticket inspector that she had already paid - Mail Online.
Friday 11 Oct 2019
Global Air Freight Sinks into Longest Recession since 2008 - Wolf Street.
Iranian oil tanker damaged by explosions near Saudi port city - The Guardian.
Jane Fonda Arrested While Protesting in D.C. - Hollywood Reporter.
The EU agrees to enter Brexit 'tunnel' negotiations with Boris Johnson as hopes of a new deal surge - Business Insider SA. ".... negotiations held by a small team of officials from the UK and EU which are conducted in complete secrecy, meaning that offers and concessions are not disclosed." Transparency as required in a democracy.
Thursday 10 Oct 2019
Jim Cramer: What Would Make a Good Stock in This Environment? - Market Watch. The possibility of a market collapse makes few stocks attractive.
Nike and other sneaker companies may feel the sting of the NBA's China controversy - CNN.
Greece was broke four years ago. Now investors are paying to lend it money - CNN.
What Inflation Means To You: Inside The Consumer Price Index - Thursday, October 10 - Talk Markets.
On Twitter: StockCats @StockCats: "Breaking: Chinese delegation suggests a winner-take-all ping-pong tournament to settle trade differences". The population of China can't be forced to buy US goods, for example if it is too expensive. Imagine another country demanding the US buys more of its goods, since it is buying US goods.
Wednesday 9 Oct 2019
Eroding profit margins will push U.S. into recession in 2020, leading forecaster says - Market Watch.
On Twitter: Ashish Barua @barua_ashish: 'And here is "how well" the US economy is doing! #Neoliberalism has badly impacted the middle and lower-middle-class people. https://twitter.com/RoKhanna/status/1182000021388046336': chart.
On Twitter: Elon Musk @elonmusk: "All Tesla Supercharger stations in regions affected by California power outages will have Tesla Powerpacks within next few weeks. Just waiting on permits." The bigger issue is why a permit is required.
On Twitter: IZ @siddiqui71: "Rate cuts are not a panacea": chart.
Massive California power outages may begin early Wednesday - CNN.
White House vows to resist impeachment inquiry - FT.
China’s leading AI start-ups hit by US blacklisting - FT. Will artificial intelligence development see the same difference as for example train speeds in the US (average 130km/h) and China (world's longest high speed network - High-speed rail in China)?
Tuesday 8 Oct 2019
Federal Reserve Says It Will Increase Supply of Bank Reserves - WSJ. On Twitter: fred hickey @htsfhickey: "For decades the financial system got along just fine with virtually zero "excess reserves" Now $1.4 TRILLION isn't enough. Why? Because when you start money printing... it's never enough": chart.
Technically Speaking: This Is Nuts & The Reason To Focus On Risk - RIA.
Growing call for industrywide strike to back GM workers - WSWS.
Boeing Retreats as Report Says EU Regulators Not Satisfied With 737 MAX Safety - The Street.
The Repo Market Incident May Be The Tip Of The Iceberg - Hedgeye.
Decelerating Growth Calls for Accelerating Action - IMF. "Our new analysis shows that if a major downturn occurs, corporate debt at risk of default would rise to $19 trillion, or nearly 40 percent of the total debt in eight major economies.  This is above the levels seen during the financial crisis."
Monday 7 Oct 2019
GE freezes worker pensions — what to do if your employer changes the terms of your retirement plan - Market Watch.
On Twitter: Peter Schiff @PeterSchiff: "Economists claiming the U.S. economy is in good shape now said the same thing just before the 2008 financial crisis. They're wrong again. The reason we had a crisis was because the economy was actually a disaster waiting to happen. Today we are awaiting an even bigger disaster!"
Dispelling The Myths Of Capitalism & The Value Of Prosperity – Part 1 - RIA.
On Twitter: Luke Gromen @LukeGromen: "US/China Trade War 101, learned by raising 3 sons now aged 18, 16, & 13: It is almost NEVER the one who is winning that gets angry or accuses the other of cheating; it’s always the one who is losing that loses their cool." The loser is the side that has to offer a lot of cheap goods in exchange for expensive essential products they cannot produce themselves. The US has benefitted from cheap labour in other countries.
Why the world deserves a better toilet - Bill Gates. It is related to the Microsoft business who's operating system is also c**p.
Employment statistics get a lot of attention in the media. What matters is debt. This FRED chart compares the number of US workers in blue, with total US debt in red, and inflation adjusted debt in green, both adjusted to be equal to the number of employed in 1960. Most of the rise in debt is due to inflation. Inflation adjusted debt per employer is now 4.6x higher than in 1960. With inflation, debt is 40x higher. What shows an uptrend on this scale is inflation and debt, not employment. More debt is required to match rising inflation.
Sunday 6 Oct 2019
OPINION: Thomas Cook's death was pure Ernest Hemingway - Fin24.
Saturday 5 Oct 2019
Mall Vacancy Rate Hits 8-Year High Amid Record Number Of Store Closures - Zero Hedge.
Opinion: This widening crack in the mortgage market could sink U.S. home prices - Market Watch.
In many countries high actual inflation is causing a gradual economic decline, apparently since the beginning of 2016. The stock markets have moved sideways since the beginning of last year. One sector after the other is likely to feel the effects, as consumers cut back on discretionary spending, like toys, clothing, books, etc.
On Twitter: Daniel Lacalle @dlacalle_IA: "The biggest problem of the ECB is that it has little clue about the real market demand for sovereign bonds at these yields. I suspect it is close to zero. That is why the ECB cannot normalise. Even a small rise in cost of debt would derail governments’ budgets." chart.
The Case Against Low-fat Milk Is Stronger Than Ever - Travel + Leisure.
Friday 4 Oct 2019
Why you should embrace a minimalist retirement - Market Watch.
Tesla under investigation on claim it throttled batteries to hide fire risk - CNBC. Highway Vehicle Fires (2014-2016) - US Fire Administration, FEMA: "Each year, from 2014 to 2016, an estimated 171,500 highway vehicle fires occurred in the United States, resulting in an annual average of 345 deaths; 1,300 injuries; and $1.1 billion in property loss."
Texts show U.S. officials tied Ukraine meeting to political probes - Reuters.
The entire American steel industry just got downgraded - CNN.
Blistering heat and little rain is causing a 'flash drought' in the South - USA Today.
On Twitter: Elizabeth Joh @elizabeth_joh: "A 21 year old overslept, missed jury duty. His grandfather counseled him to go in and be honest about what happened. The judge said his absence caused a 45 minute delay and sentenced him to 10 days in jail and a year of probation. He'd had no criminal record."
Thursday 3 Oct 2019
Orders of Heavy Trucks Collapse, Layoffs Start - Wolf Street.
China Starts Building Double Speed Maglev Test Track - Next Big Future.
The elected leader of a country is usually representative of the character and intelligence of the population.
Wednesday 2 Oct 2019
China vows to reduce emissions but is still bankrolling coal worldwide - Our Daily Planet. "China is building or planning more than 300 coal plants in places as widely spread as Turkey, Vietnam, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Egypt and the Philippines." Some countries, like in Europe, still burn enormous amounts of gas vir heating. Countries without gas only have coal and nuclear as stable sources of electricity.
US to issue tariffs on Airbus planes — and travelers will pay - CNBC. The good news is that, if the € declines to remain competitive, it will make the planes cheaper to countries other than the US, like solar panels became cheaper outside the US.
On Twitter: TheStreet @TheStreet: "Breaking - Tesla $TSLA delivers 97,000 vehicles in Q3". The question is how much cheaper can cars be produced in China? From 26 May 2019: Tesla's Chinese-built Model 3 could cost almost $10,000 less than imported versions - Cnet. "Estimates currently put the base price for a Chinese-built Tesla at 300,000 Yuan, or around $43,400".
North Korea says it successfully tested new submarine-launched ballistic missile - Reuters. So much for Trump's handling of North Korea.
One strategy the media could follow to end the Trump presidency is to keep pushing impeachment until Trump explodes. What Trump can do is use the military to take over the government. He ignores the democratic principle that congress decides policies based on the view of the electorate, and the president implements the policies. So becoming supreme leader is the next logical step.
Tuesday 1 Oct 2019
On Twitter: Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump: "As I predicted, Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve have allowed the Dollar to get so strong, especially relative to ALL other currencies, that our manufacturers are being negatively affected. Fed Rate too high. They are their own worst enemies, they don’t have a clue. Pathetic!" Higher interest rates imply higher inflation, which cancels the benefits. Trade is bigger than capital flow, and the major determinant for exchange rates. The strong dollar is the results of US import restrictions, subsidies, and financial bailouts.
ISM Manufacturing Index Slumps to Decade Low as Trade War Hits US Factories - The Street. The main reason must be insufficient debt growth to overcome inflation.
Democrats’ Plans to Tax Wealth Would Reshape U.S. Economy - NY Times. "Mr. Sanders proposed a new tax on corporations that have a huge gap between what they pay their chief executive and their median worker." This treats the symptoms and not the cause. For better wealth distribution (1) the economy should be made easily accessible to every-one so companies do not grow very large, and (2) the salaries of company management subjected to supply and demand principles positions should be auctioned off every few years to a number of applicants.
The Australian Reserve Bank has cut interest rates to 0.75%. From this you might infer that inflation must be very low. The FRED chart below compares the growth in the money in circulation in green (M3 money supply) with nominal economic output in blue (current price GDP), and real economic output in red (constant price GDP) referenced back to 1960 by equating it to current price GDP at the time. The long time line does amplify a small difference between money supply and economic output. Relative to the growth in money since 1960, there has been almost no economic growth (red). The difference between money (green) and nominal economic output (blue) suggests money went into assets, and did not flow through the economy. It is hard to believe that such magnificent asset bubbles were created without significant inflation.
Unlike years ago when the oil-rich countries sold oil well above the cost of production, the oil price is unlikely to go down much, or for long, because US shale oil is a major producer. It creates a base price. From 25 Sep 2019: Secret Survey: U.S. Shale In A State Of 'Deep Anxiety' - Oil Price. The Crude Oil Rigs (Trading Economics) is declining. Due to US inflation, an average WTI oil price of about $45 in 2016 is $57 now, which corresponds to an inflation rate of 6% per year.
US Shale Won’t Go Bankrupt - Oil Price.
Financial television channels are trying to create news from nothingness. (1) The apparent economic growth in the US is likely high inflation that is being underreported. After decades of keeping the economy growing through increasing debt, comes the repayment through inflation. Cheap imports held inflation down. Trump's campaign against cheap imports probably contributed to higher inflation. (2) As shown before, according the FRED chart below, Chinese goods imports remained less than 0.25% of the US Gross National Product (includes money US businesses make in other countries) for the last 8 years:
Monday 30 Sep 2019
On Twitter: Financial Times @FinancialTimes: "More than 400,000 German car owners have signed up to a landmark collective lawsuit over Volkswagen’s emissions cheating scandal, the first test of a new legal instrument introduced in the wake of ‘Dieselgate’ "
Sunday 30 Sep 2019
Arnold Schwarzenegger sends Tesla Model 3 for climate activist Greta Thunberg - Teslarati. When the machines take over, the Tesla computers will be infected by a virus which will cause the cars to crash, unless Sarah Conner can escape from the terminator, and stop the machines.
Plenty to fret about in growing pile of BBB-rated U.S. corporate debt - Market Watch.
Saturday 28 Sep 2019
The mounting human cost of the Thomas Cook collapse - WSWS.
US Census report: Inequality grew rapidly in 2018 to record levels - WSWS.
Friday 27 Sep 2019
On twitter: Peter Schiff @PeterSchiff: "The media reports that consumer spending drives economic growth. In a healthy economy economic growth drives consumer spending. In a bubble economy, debt drives consumer spending, which boosts GDP, but not the real economy. When the bubble pops the phony growth is exposed."
Britain’s secret Saudi military support programme - Daily Maverick.
SpaceX Starship Will Be Fully Operational Tomorrow - Next Big Future.
If the impeachment of Trump doesn't work out, Nancy Pelosi could be declared a witch. Everybody loves a good witch hunt.
Thursday 26 Sep 2019
Sweden Spinning out of Control - Gatestone Institute.
Read Trump's phone conversation with Volodymyr Zelensky - CNN.
Wednesday 25 Sep 2019
On Twitter: Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner: "Oops! #ECB M3 money supply growth unexpectedly jumps to 5.7% in Aug, from 5.1% in Jul, fastest growth since 2009. Even Eurozone bank lending to businesses accelerated last month to 4.3% despite mounting global threats.": chart.
...Like the first comment: India Wolseley @IWolseley": "Replying to @Schuldensuehner. What does it mean?" The ECB has high actual inflation, which devalues debt so the public can pay for the debt through a lower standard of living. There is no free lunch.
On Twitter: Elon Musk @elonmusk: "Lifting lower section of Starship": photo. "Mk1 ship is around 200 tons dry & 1400 tons wet, but aiming for 120 by Mk4 or Mk5. Total stack mass with max payload is 5000 tons."
"It May Already Be Too Late For Europe's Economy..." - Zero Hedge.
Who Could Have Known: What The Repo Fiasco Entails - RIA.
Seeing Donald Trump and Boris Johnson together at the UN is a reminder of movies like Dumb and Dumber, or Blonde and Blonder. Trump spoke to leaders at the UN. Most countries at the UN are dictatorships. Their "leaders" represent themselves, and not their populations.
According to Gallup Trump has an approval rating of 43%. Regardless, the majority will probably want to see an impeachment because their is nothing entertaining on television. All the participants of The Apprentice who were fired by Trump would like to see him get fired as president.
The Brent oil price is slightly influenced by rumours about Saudi oil supply being back to normal, or alternatively being delayed by weeks. The oil price is still on an uptrend, since the beginning of 2016, along with iron ore and gold. That is when the US$ stopped strenghtening. It could be due to a rise in US inflation. The oil price is making a symmetrical triangular pattern, which could break out up or down. The high cost of US shale creates a base price of around $60, so a break up is more likely. This could have more to do with US inflation.
On Twitter: Wulf D. Brand @realWulfDBrand: "Replying to @MsResJudicata. All car manufacturers use this type of software, in one form or another. The real scandal is that VW is singled out, as America falls back into the bad habit of German-bashing. How much more CO2 is produced by all the gas-powered cars prevalent in the US vs. diesel?" That would explain why the fuel consumption of an Opel Zafira (subsidiary of General Motors) shot up after a service. They must have changed the software.
On Twitter: Allison Janney @AllisonBJanney: "This tho. Day has just been made.": video.
Tuesday 24 Sep 2019
On Twitter: Nick Kunze @NickKunze2: "You want to be in front of this queue. Executives across the US are selling stock in their own companies at the fastest pace in 20 years. Corporate insiders, typically CEOs, CFOs and board members, sold a combined $19bn of stock, which would mark the most active year since 2000;"chart. In case of share buybacks, they could be selling it to their own company.
Pelosi to announce formal Trump impeachment inquiry -- live updates - CBS.
Supreme Court: Suspending Parliament was unlawful, judges rule - BBC.
On Twitter: ISABELNET @ISABELNET_SA: "Replying to @TaviCosta. The chart below also shows that buybacks are the source of the rally in the U.S. stock market since 2009 https://isabelnet.com/?s=buybacks": chart.
On Twitter: Liz Ann Sonders @LizAnnSonders: "Ratio of households' net worth to GDP at record high, with latest increase driven mostly by stock market (2007’s high was both real estate & stock market) @SoberLook": chart
Monday 23 Sep 2019
Thomas Cook Airlines UK suspends operations, planes impounded - IFN. Boris Johnson says he refused R2,7 trillion bailout for Thomas Cook because it risked 'moral hazard' for other firms - Business Insider SA.
It’s finally here: Arcimoto is delivering its 75 MPH electric trike fun-mobile - Electrek.
On Twitter: Sven Henrich @NorthmanTrader: "US debt levels: Debt was $360B in 1966, it took 15 years to get $1T. It then took to 27 years to add another $9T to get to $10$. Now it's taken us just 11 years to add another $12T. In other words: In the past 11 years we've added more debt than in the previous 42 years combined."
The Disconnect Between The Markets & Economy Has Grown - RIA.
Is Aramco Lying About Its Damaged Oil Infrastructure? - Oil Price. Saudi Arabia Refinery Repairs Could Take Months - Next Big Future.
One reason for Brexit, from 1 Sep 2017: THAT SUCKS ‘Bonkers’ EU ban on powerful vacuum cleaners could spark mass panic buying - the Sun.
GM fires Mexican workers for aiding US strikers and calling for cross-border fight against automaker - WSWS.
Andy Dick arrest warrant issued for allegedly groping his Uber driver: report - Fox News.
Sunday 22 Sep 2019
Op Twitter: Otavio (Tavi) Costa @TaviCosta: "Japan’s yield curve now 64% inverted. Its only analog is November 1989. A month prior to the unfolding of its asset bubble crisis. Credit markets foreshadowing trouble ahead across the globe." chart.
The Moment You Know You Know, You Know! 09-20-19 - RIA.
On Twitter: Bette Midler @BetteMidler: '23 states are suing Trump to keep California's emission rules! To paraphrase Andy Warhol, "In the future, everyone in the world will sue Donald Trump at least once." '
The FRED chart below shows the rate of money flow (velocity) through the US economic in blue, the M2 money supply in red, and the economic output (gross domestic product) in green adjusted so as to coincide with the money supply around 1997 when the velocity of money flow reached a peak. The increase in money (red) has been ineffective in producing economic output (green) as money flow slowed down (blue), presumably because the money went into asset bubbles. Lowering interest rates to boost an economy mostly leads to asset appreciation, and not so much economic growth. That might be the reason why some reserve banks have only one mandate, namely to keep inflation down. The asset appreciation creates pent-up inflation and increases debt. It must lead to inflation because people have achieved wealth without a commensurate increase in production. The increased debt can't be repaid without an increase in production or efficiency. Inflation is understated in most countries, from countries with low rates of money creation, to the highest like Zimbabwe.
Don’t Mess With Modi in Texas - NY Times.
Saturday 21 Sep 2019
90% Of Plastic Waste Polluting Earth's Oceans Comes From Asia and Africa - Zero Hedge. The overpopulation also leads to the invasion of other countries.
On Twitter: Colin McGuire @realColinMac: "Are #robots the future of #pizza? This company wants to #automate the pizzeria": video.
Friday 20 Sep 2019
The large crowds of demonstrations against climate change do illustrate the root cause too many people on earth. The emphasis should be on stopping population growth.
On Twitter: Daniel Lacalle @dlacalle_IA: "Germany’s Energiewende cost: $500 billion so far and been a significant contributor to Germany”s stagnation, almost doubling electricity bills to households and making SMEs uncompetitive. Of course, the solution: repeat. Clearly does not go far enough... to create a depression": The New York Times @nytimes :"Angela Merkel’s government agreed to support a $60 billion package of climate policies aimed at getting Germany back on track to meet its goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. Critics say the package "lacks courage" and doesn't go far enough.
Thursday 19 Sep 2019
On Twitter: Albert Edwards @albertedwards99: "After years of QE and free money, Central Banks are now hostages to the valuation monster they have created. They even probably also have have Stockholm Syndrome where they actually believe that economic prosperity is predicated on high asset prices. What utter fools.": Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner: "Central banks are prisoners of the markets. The more stocks rise, the less Central Banks can normalize. Great chart in this week's @Quillintel by @DiMartinoBooth": chart.
Here’s why regulators are so worried about Facebook’s digital currency - CNBC. They should not have called it a currency. Just call it membership points. One point equals one cent.
Trump administration bars California from requiring cleaner cars - Reuters. He should have barred California's compulsory solar panels, which will increase electricity tariffs for everybody else, who has to fund the stand-by generators for when the sun doesn't shine.
'Worse than Hurricane Harvey': At least 2 dead as Imelda overwhelms Texas with' incredibly dangerous' flooding - USA Today. Just as long as the levee doesn't break as per Led Zeppelin's song.
Opinion: Overstock founder tried to squeeze short sellers, then sold out when the SEC cracked down - Market Watch.
Amazon Orders 100,000 Electric Delivery Trucks From Rivian - InsideEVs.
Wednesday 18 Sep 2019
Streaming wars scorecard: What to watch and how much it will cost - CNN.
Political candidates campaign for greater taxation of some groups like businesses or the wealthy, to pay for services like medical care. It doesn't work like that in the real world. Everybody ends up paying for taxes. Taxes are either passed on as higher prices on products or services, or lead to lower employment by those who are taxed more. By making medical expenses compulsory, government effectively forces the public to spend less on other services. The extra administration increases inefficiency and cost.
Tuesday 17 Sep 2019
On Twitter: Simon Mikhailovich @S_Mikhailovich: "On the way to JFK, I asked the cab driver what he thought about the economy. He proceeded to explain how the US used the USD reserve status to expropriate foreign wealth & export inflation abroad to hide the US econ. decay. If a NY cabbie gets it, we are in the late innings."
There are two opposing forces operating on stock markets: (1) inflation that pushes up the price of everything, and (2) greater poverty as a result of that inflation, especially the working class majority. The debt and asset bubbles led to inflation, apparently starting 2016. Initially, companies report good revenue growth due to that inflation, but profits lag. Eventually revenue also falls back. The net result is that stock markets tumble, but not as low as the previous collapse because of inflation, and perhaps some economic growth.
Federal Reserve injects billions of dollars into financial system - Financial Times. On Twitter: Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla: NATALLIANCE: “One of our team just picked up that Saudi has pulled billions of cash from US Markets in the last 24 hours to support their own economy after the oil attacks... Add that to the treasury refunding payments and new cash... And you can see how a squeeze developed.” Trump suspects Iran stole the money. Autodidact @maverickneo: "Is the Saudi currency peg thus being defended?"
Kamala Harris calls for new investigation into Kavanaugh allegations - The Hill. What is ridiculous is that judges occupy their positions indefinitely, without any supervision or review to determine competence.
Is Felicity Huffman’s jail sentence fair? - Yahoo News. The benefits that politicians offer voters are in fact bribes, using taxpayers' money.
Monday 16 Sep 2019
Can A Tesla Model X Tow On A Road Trip? This Video Says It Can't - InsideEVs. Tesla cars are presumably super aerodynamic to maximize distance from a limited battery. What you need is a steamline trailer, like The Bowlus Road Chief may be the ultimate travel trailer; here's why.
Judging by exchange rates movement, it looks like people think some currencies will be stronger than the US dollar. Those other countries are also devaluing their currencies through debt or money creation followed by high inflation to keep economic growth going.
Talk of recession as a result of Saudi attack is overblown - MarketWatch. "U.S. economy that now roughly produces as much oil as it consumes". Correct, as long as one assumes that trade is insignificant, because trading partners are impacted by higher oil prices. Tesla (TSLA) is down today, despite electric vehicles becoming more attractive at a higher oil price. Boeing (BA) is up, whilst foreign sales could be impacted by the higher oil price. The Arca Airline Index is down -2.8%.
Aramco Less Optimistic on Pace of Oil Output Recovery - Bloomberg.
Isis gains traction in Afghanistan as US talks collapse - FT.
On Twitter: jeroen blokland @jsblokland: "#Oil is still very, very big!": World's largest companies. Mankind has wasted an enormous amount of money on fuel. Electric cars have always been possible, and existed a century ago. It was just the battery technology that needed development.
‘Total political crap’: Apple takes on EU’s Vestager - Tech Central.
Sunday 15 Sep 2019
7 Year Old Tesla Model S At 98% Battery Capacity Today - Clean Technica.
Muslim American mayor says border agents confiscated his phone after he arrived at NY airport - CNN.
These 'kamikaze' drones are believed to have taken out 5% of world oil production in an attack on Saudi Arabia. Here's what we know about them. - Business Insider SA. Trump claims it was Iran. US oil producers can't be unhappy about the strikes.
On Twitter: Tulsi Gabbard @TulsiGabbard: '@realDonaldTrump. Trump awaits instructions from his Saudi masters. Having our country act as Saudi Arabia's bitch is not "America First." ':
....Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump: "Saudi Arabia oil supply was attacked. There is reason to believe that we know the culprit, are locked and loaded depending on verification, but are waiting to hear from the Kingdom as to who they believe was the cause of this attack, and under what terms we would proceed!" Saudi should ask for a refund on the US weapons they were supplied, because it is apparently useless against mear drones.
Why Gold Is Headed To $1400, And Why It’s A Strong Buy In 2020 - Talk Markets. Something changed at the beginning of 2016. The currencies of Australia, Canada and South Africa stopped weakening, and moved sideways (the US dollar stopped strengthening). The oil, iron ore and gold price stopped declining, and moved up. The US velocity of money supply stopped declining, which usually means money supply growth turns into inflation.
Traders Are "Playing With Fire" - Zero Hedge.
Saudi Arabia: Drone attacks knocked out half its oil supply - Gulf News. 'The attacks resulted in "the temporary suspension of production operations" '. The US says Iran ‘launched an unprecedented attack on the world's energy supply’ in Saudi Arabia – and there is talk of retaliation - BusinessInsider SA. Defiant Iran blasts Pompeo’s Saudi-attack accusations as ‘blind and futile comments’ - Fox News.
On Twitter: Daniel Lacalle @dlacalle_IA: "The insanity of negative-yielding debt in three charts:" chart, chart, chart.
Kamala Harris, Julian Castro Call for Brett Kavanaugh Impeachment - The Hollywood Reporter. On Twitter: Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump: "Brett Kavanaugh should start suing people for libel, or the Justice Department should come to his rescue. The lies being told about him are unbelievable. False Accusations without recrimination. When does it stop? They are trying to influence his opinions. Can’t let that happen! Can’t let Brett Kavanaugh give Radical Left Democrat (Liberal Plus) Opinions based on threats of Impeaching him over made up stories (sound familiar?), false allegations, and lies. This is the game they play. Fake and Corrupt News is working overtime! #ProtectKavanaugh."
Saturday 14 Sep 2019
50p at 50: how Britons' living costs have changed since 1969 - The Guardian. The average house price increased by 8.1% per year over the 50 years. Colour television (480mm) price decreased -1.8% per year. Electronic products are cheaper due to greater efficiency. Most other services are no more efficient, like politics, the legal system, education, home contruction, etc.
On Twitter: Charlie Bilello @charliebilello: "Best Performing Stocks in S&P 500 this year... Chiptotle $CMG: +82%, Western Digital $WDC: +79%, Lam Research $LRCX: +75%, KLA Corp $KLAC: +71%, Copart $CPRT: +71%, Coty $COTY: +68%, Target $TGT: +68%, Total System Services $TSS: +67%, Advanced Micro Devices $AMD: +66%, Leidos $LDOS: +65%". These large percentages can't be based on actual sales and potential profit growth. Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) had revenue growth of 13.2% for the second quarter, and net profit margin back to 7.9%. Copart (CPRT) revenue +15.7% and profit margin up to 35%.
Retail Carnage Continues: Forever 21 Bankruptcy Expected By Sunday - Zero Hedge.
Friday 13 Sep 2019
France's Piketty bashes billionaires in new 1200 page book/ - Breitbart. Explains his socialism. The reasons some end up extremely weatlhy should be addressed, like government policies, monopolies, and restricted economic access.
Toyota is trying to figure out how to make a car that runs forever - TechCentral.
Thursday 12 Sep 2019
All hail Gallus gallus domesticus—we are living in the age of the chicken - Quartz.
Walmart rolls out unlimited grocery delivery subscription - NY Post.
The S&P 500 companies for the second quarter had total revenue growth of 4.3%, and profit growth of 0.50%, from a year earlier. The profit figure is distorted by accounting rules that require once-off capital items to be entered into the income statement. If done at all, it should be smoothed in over time (amortize). Share buybacks boosted the earnings per share, to give growth of 2.2%.
The revenue growth is a combination of an increase in selling prices, and in the volume of goods traded. The official inflation rate was about 1.7%. If volumes increased, one would have expected for profits to exceed revenue growth, as overhead costs remained fixed. Unless companies were under pressure from competition. If the volume of goods remained the same, selling inflation was 4.3%, and cost inflation 4.8%. Lower profit margins suggest lower volumes, and higher inflation.
Whatever the situation, a year-over-year profit growth of 0.5% provides little reason for the stock market to rise. The S&P 500 index is determined by market cap, which excludes share buybacks (higher share price, but fewer shares outstanding). Declining interest rates can boost stock markets, but then yields are already very low for the risk.
Wednesday 11 Sep 2019
Scotland’s highest court rules prorogation of parliament unlawful - Financial Times.
Hong Kong exchange launches takeover bid for LSE - Market Watch.
Black Monday – Can It Happen Again? - Real Investment Advice.
Since 2014, European Banks Have Paid €23 Billion To The ECB... And Now Face Disaster - Zero Hedge.
On Twitter: NasasiraArnold @NasasiraArnold: "The China-Pakistan 880km highway, built in a record 36 months only, now open to the public. A 21st Century wonder!": video.
Event highlights China's human rights - ECNS.CN. UN members are mostly dictatorships.
Tuesday 10 Sep 2019
U.K. stocks inch higher as BlackRock advises investors to pounce on Brexit selloffs - Market Watch. Some media, like financial news channels, have been kicking a dead horse stock market since the beginning of 2018. In a sideways market long term investors are more likely to lose money against the speculators that have taken over stock markets. Governments are trying to feed dead horse economies. The weakness of the UK economy could be more than just Brexit.
Ford cut to junk - Fin24. Repeat of Auto Industry Bailout - The Balance.
GM fires and harasses Mexican workers to speed up production - WSWS.
On Twitter: truthteller @truthte18299352: "Always doom and gloom from permabear @LanceRoberts. Here is the chart he doesn’t want you to see as he claims more and more households going into debt every day on Houston radio. Sad @michaellebowitz: chart. The GDP economic output that is used as reference, is itself built on increasing debt. What the chart actually shows is that consumer debt as percentage of total debt is declining, probably because they are poorer relative to the wealthy who held appreciating assets. Government is also borrowing on their behalf. The US public owe about the value of their houses as result of goverment debt. So, not only do they have pay off their home loan, in the future they will have to pay a similar amount due to government debt.
UK government debt to GDP has been flat for years: UK government debt and deficit: March 2019. Other debt is difficult to find.
The FRED chart below compares UK real economic output in red, to UK economic output as measure through the $/£ exchange rate and US inflation in blue. The two lines separated at the beginning of 2016, which could mean the pound has been unusually weak, or the UK has under-reported inflation.
On Twitter: John Bolton @AmbJohnBolton: 'I offered to resign last night and President Trump said, "Let's talk about it tomorrow." '
On Twitter: Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump: "I informed John Bolton last night that his services are no longer needed at the White House. I disagreed strongly with many of his suggestions, as did others in the Administration, and therefore....I asked John for his resignation, which was given to me this morning. I thank John very much for his service. I will be naming a new National Security Advisor next week."
Monday 9 Sep 2019
On Twitter: Kathy Jones @KathyJones: "July consumer credit up a whopping #23 billion. Revolving up $10 bil and nonrevolving up $13 bil. Biggest monthly gain since Nov 2017." Consumers are probably hit by high inflation.
India Auto Sales Take Record Fall in 10th Straight Month of Declines - Bloomberg. Trading Economics. Car sales decline everywhere, but the prices of platinum, palladium and rhodium are up.
On Twitter: Patrick Gunz @PatrickGunz_CH: "This tiny car is for wheelchairs users with easy access from the front": video.
Sunday 8 Sep 2019
From 17 May 2017: The Brexit referendum question was flawed in its design - The London School of Economics and Political Science. If the referendum was promoted as Brexit, that is, a vote to exit the EU, then the referendum was flawed, because some people might have perceived it as an event for those who wanted to leave. If it were promoted as a remain vote, like saying: "We are leaving, if you like to stay go and vote for it", the outcome might have been different. The leave majority was 1.89% above 50%, whilst 27.9% did not vote. The conclusion that should have drawn from the result is that the population was undecided. Since the referendum was not legally binding, government should not have proceeded with Brexit. It should have been followed by an election based on Brexit to turn it into a legal process. What actually happened is the result of voting commoners into government.
Saturday 7 Sep 2019
Trump may have committed tax fraud by fabricating a loan to avoid paying income taxes on nearly R740 million million - Business Insider SA.
On Twitter: Vice President Mike Pence @VP: "The United States stands without apology for a strong, prosperous, and free United Kingdom and we fully support their decision to leave the European Union. Thank you Prime Minister @BorisJohnson for a great visit!" Pence adds his two cents' worth to Brexit debate. Pence also wanted to know if the US could rejoin the British Empire. The queen said the US hasn't sucked up enough, but if they refunded the tea lost in Boston she wil consider it.
On Twitter: Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump: "The Failing New York Times stated, in an article written by Obama flunky Peter Baker (who lovingly wrote Obama book),”Even after the President forecast the storm to include Alabama.” THIS IS NOT TRUE. I said, VERY EARLY ON, that it MAY EVEN hit Alabama. A BIG DIFFERENCE....." (a) The obsession in US media with everything their president says is worse than in a dictatorship. There are countries were the government is ignored. (b) The media always predict a long path for hurricanes. As soon as it hits land, it peters out to a tropical storm.
Friday 6 Sep 2019
Intel Stock Surges 11% in Two Weeks and Is Still Growing - Market Realist. Speculators are simply causing a reversal of an earlier vertical decline.
Cocoa Trees Are Being Ravaged By a Disease With No Known Cure - Bloomberg.
On Twitter: Gab @TraderGab: "Kudlow on CNBC: China wants to make a deal ... lol !": graph. US trade with China is insignificant. What matters is whether the US public can be forced to borrow more, unless the government borrows more money on their behalf.
Amber Heard Takes New Shot at Dismissing Johnny Depp's Defamation Suit - The Hollywood Reporter. This is more entertaining than all the movie roles they played, well mainly because movies are incredibly boring.
August Big Rig Orders Plunge Bigly - David Stockman's Contra Corner. This appears to differ from the FRED chart for "Motor Vehicle Retail Sales: Heavy Weight Trucks": FRED. The first one must be advance orders.
Denise Richards Claims Charlie Sheen Owes $450K in Child Support, Blames 'Extravagant Lifestyle' - People.
Thursday 5 Sep 2019
Major University Study Finds "Fire Did Not Bring Down Tower 7 On 9/11" - Zero Hedge.
Wednesday 4 Sep 2019
On Twitter: Quest Means Business @questCNN: '#HurricaneDorian has dealt a major blow to the Bahamas' tourism industry, which accounts for 60% of the country's economy. Joy Jibrilu, director general of the #Bahamas Ministry of Tourism, says the storm has been "heartbreaking" and shown what "nature at its worst can do." ': video. This region has been hit by hurricanes forever. The real question is why people have not built storm resistant structures. Is it because other people pay for the reconstruction? The flood water seems stagnant, which suggests there is no provision for the water to run down to the sea.
Johnson demands October 15 election after defeat over Brexit - Reuters. As pointed out before, the UK needs a general election contested solely on Brexit, so that the members of parliament are in the same proportion to public opinion on the matter.
On Twitter: Harold Sinnott @HaroldSinnott: "This might be the world’s worst sheepdog": video.
Brexit and the Mirror-Image of the Truth - Law & Liberty. The referendum was flawed. For a change in the status quo, the votes in favour of leaving should have been a majority of the registered voters. If you have a group of 10 people deciding whether to go out for dinner, and 4 vote in favour, 3 vote against, and 3 have not given their opinion, has the majority decided to go out? One can assume that the absentees were happy with the status quo (being an EU member), and therefore not motivated to go and vote.
Tuesday 3 Sep 2019
Gold (in real terms) - Ritholtz.
On Twitter: MarketWatch @MarketWatch: "Bad news for parents: Trump’s trade war with China will hit back-to-school supplies". Them school supplies are probably a fraction of local costs, like teacher salaries.
Chinese people find Trump ‘perplexing and exhausting’ on trade war, says state-run TV host - CNBC.
Rich people are hoarding cash, and wealth managers are getting frustrated - FT.
Huawei says U.S. has launched cyberattacks against it - Market Watch.
On Twitter: Stuart Wallace @StuartLWallace: "Global electric-car sales fell for the first time in modern history in July after China scaled back subsidies.
Just How Long Will An EV Battery Last? - InsideEVs.
Color-change urine test for cancer shows potential in mouse study - Phys.org.
Lego to open 160 new stores as other toy retailers suffer - Phys.org.
Ariana Grande Sues Forever 21 for Using a "Look-Alike Model" on Social Media - The hollywood Reporter.
On Twitter: Emerald Robinson @EmeraldRobinson: "Why are there 350,000 Chinese students in America right now? Why are we educating the elite children of Chinese communists? Why are taxpayer-funded American universities doing this?"
....Luke Gromen @LukeGromen: "According to a private university administrator friend of mine, it’s because Chinese students subsidize US students (ie if Chinese students all left, many private US universities or US student parents or both would likely be in financial distress.)"
On Twitter: Gaml. Y @GY18164253: "This guy ran into a thirsty squirrel at the grand canyon (Posted by animals being)": video.
The debt problem in Argentina is the same as Venezuela, Zimbabwe, and Greece. The population spends more than what it produces. Usually it is politicians who like to hand out benefits to their followers. The US and the Eurozone have the same problem. The lower standard of living required for repayment can be offset by economic growth. Economic growth means people earn more, so they generate extra money for debt repayment. Unfortunately, governments like to borrow more as the economy grows. An increasing number of people are being left behind who are not developing.
Monday 2 Sep 2019
Here’s Why Millions of Millennials are not Homeowners - David Stockman's Contra Corner.
China lodges tariff case at WTO against the U.S. - Reuters.
The Absurdity of Negative Yields - Advisor Perspective.
Baltic index hits new nine-year high on strong capesize demand - Reuters.
Saudi airstrikes on Yemen prison kill more than 100 - WSWS.
New Windows 10 update bring major performance issues - Mybroadband.
The Netherlands — Fossil Cars Down 20%, Electrics Up 75% - Electrek. Battery electric vehicles were only 8.2%. It doesn't look like the public understands the advantages, or it is the extra cost of the battery. The cheapest electric car is about $30,000. The cheapest fuel car is about $15,000. At $1000 per year saving on fuel versus charging, it would take 15 years for the battery to pay for itself.
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