Tuesday 31 Oct 2023
"Zillow and other real estate stocks plunged after a Missouri jury found the National Association of Realtors and other industry players guilty of colluding to maintain high brokerage commissions" - Twitter.
Does the price of commodities foretell the state of the economy? A US recession (grey) is often preceded by a rise in the price of commodities (blue) like iron ore (red), the usual money creation leading to inflation and higher interest rates.
Monday 30 Oct 2023
Mcdonald's (MCD) revenue has recovered since 2020, after 6 years of decline: Macrotrends. The Q3 revenue grew +14.0%. A year ago it declined -5.3%. EPS grew throughout: Macrotrends. The price/earnings is $260.15/(2.57 + 2.45 + 3.15 + $3.17) = 22.9. The share price has increased by 12.7% per year for 8 years. Net profit margin was 34.7% in Q3 compared to 17.8% 8 years ago. Further share price growth is limited by revenue growth, which was very low in the past.
"California startup to 'sponge' CO2 from the atmosphere" - Twitter. This is like the movie Idiocracy, in which the plants were not given water.
President Biden Issues Executive Order on Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Artificial Intelligence - The White House. Artificial Intelligence think they can take him on.
Sunday 29 Oct 2023
"A new report from the US Department of Agriculture found that 12.8% of US households (~17 million) were food insecure last year. This is America's HIGHEST level of food insecurity since 2014." - Twitter. A hundred years ago people dressed smartly. Men wore suits. What will they wear in another hundred years?
Toyota U.S. Hydrogen Fuel Cell Car Sales Keep Growing In Q3 2023 - InsideEVs.
Saturday 28 Oct 2023
Who wouldn’t want this at-home backyard rollercoaster? - Electrek.
Afghanistan? No, Germany today. - Twitter.
US mortgage payments on the average house price relative to average wage. In Sep 2023 it was 69%, which would require that a couple both contribute, or have a big down payment. It was much more affordable from 2009 tot 2022, but the present affordability is not unusual compared to the 30 years before that. Houses are bigger. People need to build smaller.
Friday 27 Oct 2023
Factset: The S&P 500 Q3 revenue growth is 2.1%, and earnings growth 2.7%. Multpl: The PE Ratio is 23.50, which is an earnings yield of 4.3%. Gurufocus: The dividend yield is 1.67%. The total return is revenue growth of 2.1% + dividend yield of 1.67% + share buybacks of about 1.9% = 3.9%. The slope of money/debt growth the last three years is 6.0% per year. Thus the stock market is too expensive. Share prices need to decline to increase the yield.
"It's all government workers, where wage growth was 7.8%, just shy of a record high!" - Twitter.
"Today, I measure inflation in Argentina at 272%/yr – the 3rd highest in the world" - Twitter.
"Ford Cuts EV Investment After Losing $36,000 On Every EV Sold In Q3" - Twitter.
"Shares of Australia's largest gold miner Newcrest Mining have been removed from the ASX as of the close of trade yesterday 26th October, following the $26B takeover by Canadian gold miner Newmont." - Twitter.
"Astronomers have detected a burst of radio waves that was fired toward Earth from a galaxy 8 billion light-years away! Not only was it the most distant fast radio burst yet recorded, but it was also one of the most powerful." - Twitter. It was sent 8 billion years ago .... "That radio burst started in its way here 3.5 billion years before the Earth existed." .... "Killjoy"
Astronomers were able decypher the message from 8 billion years ago, but have difficulty understanding the cryptic message: "Ross and Rachel were on a break".
US nominal GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is growing exponentially due to money creation:
Thursday 26 Oct 2023
BERNSTEIN: “.. For the 29% of S&P 500 companies that have reported third quarter results so far, earnings are up +11% .. but without the contributions of the ‘Magnificent 7’ stocks, index EPS growth would drop to -8.6% ..” - Twitter.
Hyundai Motor's Q3 net profit rises 151%, beats forecasts - Nasdaq. "But the momentum is slowing as high interest rates and an uncertain economic outlook have raised vehicle financing costs and sapped consumer demand."
Hyundai Motor (US OTC: HYMTF, KR:005380) had revenue growth from 87.84B in Dec 2018 to 118.37B in Jun 2023 (ycharts), and gross profit margin growth from 16.07% in Dec 2018 to 21.05% in Jun 2023 (ycharts). The price/earnings is 2.657 (ycharts).
"Beaming constant solar energy to Earth: It's a longtime dream of scientists, but recently researchers have made real progress" - Twitter. More solar energy will heat the earth up more. There is no efficient way to convert light energy to electricity.
The Paypal (PYPL) share price has fallen to $51.35 and market cap of $56.5 billion, down from a price peak of $308.53 in 2021, back to levels of 2017. It was an old company of Elon Musk:
Elon Musk - Wikipedia: ".... with his brother Kimbal, co-founded online city guide software company Zip2. The startup was acquired by Compaq for $307 million in 1999, and with $12 million of the money he made, that same year Musk co-founded X.com, a direct bank. X.com merged with Confinity in 2000 to form PayPal. In 2002, eBay acquired PayPal for $1.5 billion, and that same year, with $100 million of the money he made, Musk founded SpaceX, a spaceflight services company. In 2004, he became an early investor in electric vehicle manufacturer Tesla Motors".
Spanish Duke told he has to shorten his daughter's 25-word long name - Sky News.
Wednesday 25 Oct 2023
"Texas AG Sues Biden Administration For Cutting Razor Wire At Southern Border" - Twitter.
Meta (Facebook) revenue growth started to stall three years ago: Macrotrends.
Alphabet (GOOG) had a quarterly revenue of $76.69B. Revenue has levelled off the last two years: Macrotrends.
California agency pulls Cruise’s commercial robotaxi permit following DMV action - Techcrunch. ".... Cruise withheld video footage from an ongoing investigation. The DMV was investigating Cruise following a series of incidents ....".
"Mick Jagger, 80, and fiancée Melanie Hamrick, 36, enjoy a glamorous date night as they attend the American Ballet Fall Gala" - Twitter. Mick Jagger of the Rolling Stones recorded the song "Sittin On A Fence" at age 22. He subsequently had 8 children with 5 women. Well, he certainly climbed down that fence.
"Led Zeppelin frontman Robert Plant, 75, performs Stairway to Heaven for first time in nearly 20 years" - Twitter.
"Improved Dwayne Johnson Wax Figure With Darker Skin Revealed by Paris Museum" - Twitter.
Tuesday 24 Oct 2023
"Spain's Socialist Party and the far-left group Sumar have agreed to cut the workweek to 37.5 hours as part of talks to try to form a coalition government" - Twitter. The people who support these parties do not think lower economic production will affect them, which is highly unlikely. Spain's government spending to GDP was 47.8% in 2022 (Trading Economics). Spain has 21M employed persons, of which 18M full time (Trading Economics) out of a population of 47M.
US previously owned homes sold in the month of Sep was 330,000 (FRED). At that rate 3.0% of 130M households sell a house in a year (FRED). New houses sold in the month of Aug was 56,250 (FRED). Cash sales were 12,000 for second quarter, equal to 4000 for a month (FRED). New houses sold is significant compared to existing homes sold. Cash sales are small.
2023 Swiss federal election - Wikipedia. Swiss People's 25.6% to 28.55%, Social Democrats 16.8% to 17.95%, The Centre 13.8% to 14.57%, FDP The Liberals 15.1% to 14.38%, Green Party 13.2% to 9.38%.
"Yuri Brezhnev was a former KGB agent and state propagandist who defected. Listen to his warnings in 1984. Watch the entire thing. Does this sound familiar?" - Twitter.
Luxury in Antarctica | ECHO, the world's most remote camp - Youtube. Good luck trying to live on Mars.
East London walking tour, Walthamstow Market, the longest outdoor market in Europe - Youtube. This is what happens when you colonize other countries, and teach them your language.
Monday 23 Oct 2023
"HANKE’S BELIEVE IT OR NOT: US Census data shows that over 817,000 people left California in 2022." - Twitter.
"Chevron to buy Hess Corp for $53 billion. Two weeks ago Exxon bought Pioneer for $59.5bn." - Twitter. These companies are sensing useless government. Standard Oil Established - Library of Congress: "In 1911, the Supreme Court found Standard Oil in violation of the Sherman Antitrust Act. As a result, Standard Oil was split into 34 independent companies, although over time these corporate descendants regrew into large integrated oil companies that still dominate the market, such as ExxonMobil."
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson Wants to 'Update' His Wax Figure in Paris Amid Viral Mockery - JustJared.
Jennifer Lopez sells Bel-Air house for $34 million ...
Last Solo Home Pre-Affleck - TMZ.
How high must US interest rates (blue) rise to stop the growth in money/debt (red)? Total debt only briefly stopped growing in 2009-10 (red below zero). Usually governments print an extra amount of money every year, to avoid deflation, and to spend it. Interest rates only affect debt, and has no effect on the extra money printed, except for money created due to a shortfall in die supply and demand for credit, like QE (Quantitive Easing).
From March 2020 to March 2023 US commercial bank deposits (blue) exceeded bank credit (red), the only time on this chart. If bank customers don't want to borrow all of the available deposits, it would not make sense to raise interest rates.
However, bank credit (red) is small compared to total US debt (purple) which has grown at an enormous rate. Whether higher interest rates affect the other debt is another matter.
Sunday 22 Oct 2023
John Stamos Says He Caught Former Girlfriend Teri Copley in Bed with Tony Danza: 'Worse Than Anything' - People. She slept with the housekeeper.
Teenager Collapses and Dies After Completing Cross Country Race: 'He Died Doing What He Loved' - People. The virus or the vaccine?
Taylor Swift Wears ’87’ Bracelet While Cheering on Travis Kelce and the Chiefs - US Magazine. People can't wait for her next song. Huddle me close. Don't cry for me Chiefs, for I have never left you.
Emily Blunt Apologizes For Resurfaced Fat-Shaming Comment - Huffpost. She is just being blunt.
Gargantuan 22-MW wind turbine will be among history's largest machines - New Atlas. If they make the propeller big enough, they could take planet earth on a journey into space.
Saturday 21 Oct 2023
"US-led restrictions on selling advanced chipmaking equipment to China will ultimately deter China’s efforts to develop an indigenous semiconductor industry, a senior American official says" - Twitter. China will take over the semiconductor market. It is just a matter of time.
"Chinese imports of chipmaking equipment from the US, the Netherlands, and Japan have reached $9.24B through August this year, despite geopolitical tensions and export restrictions. Imports from the Netherlands are surpassed 2022's levels, while imports from Japan and the US have declined. " - Twitter.
Huell Howser Visits San Andreas Fault - Youtube.
Our motorhome has been nothing but trouble - Youtube.
VEGAS F1 Track Update - Youtube.
"Asking Artificial Intellgence what women from every country look like" - Twitter.
Cratering motor fuel sales in Norway show the death spiral that can end oil - Youtube. Most trips in Norway are probably short considering the size of the country. It has 23,000 charging stations.
What Does It Cost to Charge an Electric Vehicle? - Wallbox. Norway's average electricity price is €0.18/kWh, which works out to €0.025/km. Petrol costs €2/litre, which for a 10L/100km car works out to €0.2/km, which is 8x more expensive than an electric vehicle.
Friday 20 Oct 2023
The US stock market has become much more valuable relative to the approximate value of all housing. In the 80s the stock market was only 20% of the value of housing due to high interest rates. Now it is 66%. The last time it went this high was during the dot-com bubble of 2000.
The yield on the stock market (red) is usually higher than rental yield on property (blue), but not all the stock market yield is paid out to shareholders as dividends or share buybacks:
The dividend yield (red) is similar to rental yield (blue). The market makes sense after all.
Thursday 19 Oct 2023
Earth Extinction Sized Comets - Next Big Future.
"As of today (2023-10-18), Netflix's share price is $355.72. Netflix's Earnings per Share (Diluted) for the trailing twelve months (TTM) ended in Jun. 2023 was $9.39. Therefore, Netflix's PE Ratio for today is 37.88." - Gurufocus.
"Argentina says it will borrow another $6.5 billion (it has already borrowed nearly $5 billion) under the $18 billion currency swap facility its central bank has with the PBoC. It will use the proceeds to pay down dollar obligations to the IMF." - Twitter. Swapping IMF debt for China debt.
"The U.S. has lifted sanctions on Venezuela's oil industry" - Twitter.
Wednesday 18 Oct 2023
X tests $1 annual fee for new users to post in New Zealand, Philippines - UPI. People who don't want to pay can mark the "X" to cancel.
"Germany has now said that France can fund its nuclear fleet life extensions with state support, reports the FT." - Twitter.
Tesla's Elon Musk On Rising Ford F-150 Lightning Dealer Stockpile: 'Wow' - InsideEVs.
Toyota Tests Electric Pickup Truck In Australia. When Will The US Get One? - InsideEVs.
Up to 2006 more US houses were built (blue) than the increase in households (red), which was followed by a decline in the rate of new houses built. In 2002 the US lost 2 million households. Presently, households (red) are growing faster than new houses (blue).
Tuesday 17 Oct 2023
"Oil Freight Has Surged Everywhere Since Hamas Attacked Israel" - Twitter.
"India aims to send its first astronaut to the moon by 2040" - Twitter.
"Visualizing U.S. EV Sales in H1 2023" - Twitter.
Monday 16 Oct 2023
US Treasury secretary, Janet Yellen, said the US economy is in a good place. She means the wealthy people are living in a good place.
Sunday 15 Oct 2023
"[1] Israel and Judaism have their origins 3000-4000 years ago. Egyptian tablet mentions Israel in 1230 BCE. Islam starts in 610 AD in what is now Saudi Arabia.
Over 1800 years after Israel" - Twitter.
Saturday 14 Oct 2023
"The left-wing government in New Zealand that had draconian lockdowns and introduced a climate FART TAX to punish farmers have LOST the election. Voters just elected a new right-wing government. This is a MASSIVE win for farmers and freedom" - Twitter.
Friday 13 Oct 2023
Beverly Hills Hotel | Visiting with Huell Howser | KCET - Youtube. When the Beverly Hills Hotel was opened in 1912 it was surrounded by empty field.
"From Sofia Vergara to Reece Witherspoon and Jennifer Aniston: Who could be Hugh Jackman's next leading lady after his shock split from Deborra-Lee Furness" - Twitter. He is probably looking for Meg Ryan in 1876.
From 1950 to 1975 US corporate profits (blue) stayed with gross domestic product (red) and money supply or total debt (green). Higher interest rates in 1980 caused a fall in corporate profits (blue).
After 1980, interest rates were lowered, resulting in asset appreciation for the wealthy, and the money in circulation (green) outgrew the economy (red). Profit margins (blue) improved, probably because more products were sold to the wealthy minority.
Interest rates have finally started to rise after going all the way to zero. Will permanently high interest rates cause money (green) and economy (red) to converge again, a return to high money velocity, and more production from the same money in circulation? High interest rates make it more difficult to own unproductive assets, like large houses with expensive finishes. It also forces government to borrow less, and spend less. The majority should vote to end government policies that have made them poor, but they are ignorant.
Thursday 12 Oct 2023
The Great Horse Manure Crisis of 1894 - Historic-uk. "The terrible situation was debated in 1898 at the world’s first international urban planning conference in New York, but no solution could be found". You can't make this sh.. manure up.
"BREAKING: United Auto Workers have shut down Ford's, $F, biggest plant globally in Kentucky, with 8,700 union members going on strike and halting production of their best seller, the Ford Super Duty pickup." - Twitter. More production will shift to other countries.
US Federal debt to total US debt (red) was 33.7% in Q2. Federal debt held by foreigners (blue) declined to 7.8% in Q4 of 2022.
US percentage of the population 65 years and over:
Wednesday 11 Oct 2023
"This is not Gaza. This is not the West Bank. This is Dearborn Michigan tonight. An entire theater. Cheering on an organized terrorist group." - Twitter. Populations that grow the fastest, take over the planet.
"Europe gives Mark Zuckerberg 24 hours to respond about Israel-Hamas conflict and election misinformation" - Twitter.
"Billy Ray Cyrus, 62, marries singer Firerose, 34, for a THIRD TIME during an 'ethereal' wedding ceremony" - Twitter. Almost unrecognizable as hippie.
Tuesday 10 Oct 2023
"Following the terrorist attacks by Hamas against Israel, we have indications of X/Twitter being used to disseminate illegal content & disinformation in the EU. Urgent letter to
@elonmusk on #DSA obligations" - Twitter.
Isreal history - Twitter.
Monday 9 Oct 2023
"Revealed: Jennifer Lopez and Ben Affleck took out '$20M mortgage for their Beverly Hills mansion' after initially paying in cash" - Twitter. Makes sense if the money is invested at a rate that exceeds the interest cost on the debt, or the house price grows faster than the debt cost.
Friday 6 Oct 2023
"Ozone 'hole' appears again... exposing the Montreal Protocol to ban CFCs as a hoax (again)" - Twitter.
The US price of orange juice frozen concentrate (blue) is shooting higher, but was still cheap in Aug compared to wages (green) and money in circulation per person (red).
Thursday 5 Oct 2023
Body Language Expert Tells Us Donna Kelce Already Approves Of Taylor Swift - Nicki Swift. "The Kansas City Chiefs tight end's mother, Donna Kelce, also appears to have developed a sweet spot for the Grammy-winning musician." Taylor likes a tight end.
There are a lot of comments on the high mortgage interest rates home owners have to pay now. The creditors want compensation for the loss of value of their money due to inflation. Interest rates (blue) should be matched by an increase in house prices (red). House prices are more volatile. It is better to buy when interest rates are high, and sell when rates are low.
Wednesday 4 Oct 2023
Over the long term the Euro/US$ exchange rate (blue) has varied a lot, but is still around €0.85 = $1. Both have aging populations who are not likely to progress to a more advance society, through another industrial revolution. The US dollar weakened faster (1985 to 1987, 2002 to 2008), than the long strengthening periods. US interest rates are higher than Euro interest rates when red is above zero on the right-hand scale.
The US has created more money up to 2000 (red down), and so the dollar should have weakened against the Euro (blue down). The exchange rate made lower peaks and lower lows. Since 2000 the money created was similar.
Monday 2 Oct 2023
Japan's government spending to GDP (Gross Domestic Product) was 44.5% in 2021 - Trading Economics. Governments grow until the economy stops growing, and that is where it stays.
US government spending to GDP (Gross Domestic Product) was 37.0% in 2022 - Trading Economics.
According to FRED, US federal governmment spending is 24% of GDP:
US federal government current expenditures: Interest payments is at $910 Billion:
Relative to GDP (Gross Domestic Product) the impact on the economy is lower than the 1979-2000 period:
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