Monday 31 July 2023
"Last week, the European Central Bank said it would STOP paying interest on around £141 billion of reserve deposits that commercial banks are mandated to maintain at the ECB. They force negative rates, and now they stop paying interest on deposits. Are you NOT entertained?" - Twitter.
India joins rush to renewables, but its rural solar systems fall off grid - The Washington Post.
US Treasury Boosts Quarterly Borrowing Estimate to $1 Trillion - Bloomberg. "Department had previously estimated $733 billion for quarter".
Climate Change Hasn’t Set the World on Fire - WSJ. Disagrees with:
.... from 15 Sep 2020: "Global satellite data indicate wildfires are becoming bigger and more intense. NASA’s Doug Morton explains the science behind what is making our planet more flammable" - WSJ - Twitter.
.... Facts + Statistics: Wildfires - iii.org. Increase in the Annual Number of Acres Burned in Wildland Fires, 1980-2021.
.... Wildfires and Acres - National Interagency Fire Center.
Saturday 29 July 2023
"Nothing wrong with buying tech companies with high PE ratio as long as their growth justifies it. At the moment it’s clearly not the case. Good luck." - Twitter.
"The UK is reportedly planning to allow local councils to double property taxes for second-home owners to help finance the construction of more affordable housing" - Twitter.
Comparing the running cost of a gasoline car to an electric car. US electricity price in $ per kiloWatt-hour (red) is cheaper than the gasoline price in kWh if 33% of the energy content is converted into useful kinetic energy (blue). Before 2000 the costs were similar.
Friday 28 July 2023
The US gross domestic product relative to total debt has levelled off since 2009 (blue), while the Euro Area's GDP to M3 money supply (red) and Japan's GDP to M3 money supply (green) is still declining:
Thursday 27 July 2023
Tesla vastly overstates its vehicles’ range, report states - Electrek.
Tesla created secret team to suppress thousands of driving range complaints - Reuters. This is similar to the fake fuel consumption figures given by manufacturers.
Huawei to restart 5G mobile chip output as early as this year - Nikkei Asia. And it will cost a fraction of the subsidized US chips.
'NOW - UN chief claims "the era of global warming has ended, the era of global boiling has arrived." ' - Twitter. It is not global. It is only in the northern hemisphere. The southern hemisphere has an unusually cold winter.
From 22 June: Australians shivered through a record-breaking cold snap. When will it end? - SBS News: "Canberra and parts of Sydney witnessed record-low June temperatures".
"Antarctica plunges to the lowest temperature since 2017" - Twitter.
Wedesday 26 July 2023
"Meta's META platforms take in nearly one-fifth of all digital ad spending dollars, but only hold a one–thirteenth share of time spent per day. Marketers spend a disproportionate amount with Meta compared to time spent on the platform." - Twitter.
X tells advertisers to spend $1,000 per month or risk losing verification status - Engadget.
The Twitter brand was light-hearted and fun. X has other connotations, like X rating - Wikipedia: "An X rating is a film rating that indicates that the film contains content that is considered to be suitable only for adults. Films with an X rating may have scenes of graphic violence or explicit sex that may be disturbing or offensive to some viewers."
From 28 June 2023: Antarctic sea ice reaches an early winter record low in June 2023 - Climate.gov.
"The world installed 239 GW of new solar in 2022, an increase of 45% from 2021. With over 1.2 TW of solar now installed worldwide, solar will generate 1,612 TWh of electricity globally over the course of 2023 – equivalent to 57% of the European Union's total electricity demand." - New report: Solar for the masses as global solar rooftops skyrocket by 50% - SolarPowerEurope. These solar panels create heat equal to 80%/15% = 5.3x the electricity generated, which is absorbed from the sun's energy. Humans are basically covering the earth with black panels which raises the earth's temperature.
To replace the US dollar as reserve currency, requires a positive real interest rate. The Euro Area interest rates, minus nominal inflation based on the growth in M3 money supply, has finally turned positive. Real economic growth does reduce the inflation caused by the increase in money supply, but is usually small for developed countries.
Tuesday 25 July 2023
"Elon Musk’s decision to turn Twitter into X wiped out anywhere between $4 billion and $20 billion in value, according to analysts and brand agencies" - Bloomberg Markets, Twitter.
"Billionaire Elon Musk's decision to rebrand Twitter as X could be complicated legally: companies including Meta and Microsoft already have intellectual property rights to the same letter." - Reuters, Twitter.
Central banks and their media supporters talk about getting inflation back to target. No word on reversing the past inflation. The official inflation is reported by governments, which makes it worthless.
Repeat from 8 April 2021: The FRED chart below shows US households were more responsible for the last 13 years by borrowing more slowly (green), but this is negated by businesses (red) and government (purple) borrowing more. Higher interest rates affect government and business more than in the past. Not shown are state and local government, domestic financial sectors, and rest of the world debt.
Monday 24 July 2023
"Today's July PMIs revealed a continued downturn for global manufacturing and shipping (things that go in a box). " - Twitter.
"1975 Median sq ft of a home built was roughly 1,500. The peak was in 2014 at 2,700 Bigger and bigger houses for decades while family sizes have been getting smaller." - Twitter.
"To be fair, here's the Fed's "QT" of MBS so far, semi-log. They owned $0 until 2009, when they began monetizing mortgages. This is a major reason that Blackstone owns so many home, and you don't." - Twitter.
Sunday 23 July 2023
Spain election: Conservatives win but fall short of majority - DW.
"And soon we shall bid adieu to the twitter brand and, gradually, all the birds" - Elon Musk, Twitter. The brand could be the main asset.
"Rice prices have surged to multi-year highs. And with global rice inventories projected to fall to 6-year lows in the next 6 months, prices could go even higher." - Twitter.
Compared to $276 per ton in 1990, and growth of 2.0% per year, the price of rice is a bargain:
Saturday 22 July 2023
"Homebuyer Debt-to-Income Ratios (DTIs) are now approaching 40% in the beginning of 2023. That means homebuyers are now spending 40% of their gross income on mortgage and interest costs." - Twitter.
According to FRED the Mortgage Debt Service Payments as a Percent of Disposable Personal Income was still very low at 3.93% in Q1 (below):
The Japanese Yen weakens against the US dollar (red) despite money supply growing at a lower rate. The US offers a higher interest rate on treasury securities than Japan offers on government bonds (red).
US interest rates on treasury securities, minus the growth in total debt, as indication of nominal inflation (green), compared to Japan's government bond yield minus the growth in M3 money supply growth. Both populations are being impoverished by interest rates below the nominal inflation rate (chart below zero).
Thursday 20 July 2023
"Same temperature manipulation in France relating to Corsica. Banner says 42°C, footage shows 32°C. This is a transnational coordinated psyop campaign. Now who could be behind it?" - Twitter.
Apple iphone sales are flat since 2015: Apple iPhone Shipments Market Share: 2007 to 2023 - Counterpointresearch. The Apple (AAPL) share price is $195.10 compared to $31.13 in July 2015.
The common impression is that money is invested in the Swiss Franc as strong currency. Switzerland has had a current account surplus for at least 40 years, which means a net capital outflow:
Compared to the US current account deficit, due to a net capital inflow. If the capital flow reverses, and the US has to raise interest rates to protect the dollar, the big US debt could create the disaster of the century.
Wednesday 19 July 2023
"TSLA PE ratio based on .78 GAAP Q2 annualized to $3.12 and today's close of $291.26: 93x" - Twitter.
"Richard Quest takes on the French Riviera, one of Europe's most famous summer destinations." - Twitter.
UK M3 money supply growth as nominal inflation rate (blue) has grown at a higher rate than bond yields (red) for many years.
Tuesday 18 July 2023
Making You Poorer To Control You. Honest money is the Key to freedom - Tomorrow's Affairs.
Nobel Prize winner Dr. John Clauser says there’s NO climate crisis… it’s all a hoax pushed for political purposes - Natural News.
Actors and writers will have to adapt to a new reality, and not be trapped in the vortex of their forgotten past (soap opera). Before the internet, the public were dependent on a limited number of television and movie studios for their entertainment. The studio management decided what the public would watch. With this captive audience, the studios could spend big money on productions. With the internet, everyone with a camera or smartphone can make a video. People finally have the freedom to choose their own entertainment.
If the artic melts due to global warming, the Blob could come alive again: The Blob - Full Movie - Youtube.
Monday 17 July 2023
"Tax receipts as a % of federal debt are once again falling to new record low %'s...as they have moved lower in every recession since at least the '70's. Tanking tax receipts, exploding deficits, soaring interest expense. Is it wrong to question the possibility of a sovereign debt crisis (likely displayed as a hyper-monetary crisis)?" - Twitter.
"BREAKING: Swatch sues Malaysia for seizure of Pride watches." - Twitter.
Since 1980, lower US interest rates have led to an increase in asset prices, including the stock market, and created inflation. Higher interest rates should have the opposite effect. The product of the US stock market index and the Federal Funds Effective Rate is very high, a combination of a high stock market level and high interest rates. This typically leads to a recession (grey bands), and a stock market collapse. Looking at this chart, a fall seems inevitable.
Sunday 16 July 2023
"IRS Taking 'Swift And Aggressive Action' Against 'Delinquent Millionaires' For Tax Evasion" - Twitter. The public are forced to pay for services they don't want, which is basically theft.
"Russian subsidiaries of France’s Danone and Denmark’s Carlsberg have been seized under a decree by President Putin aimed at firms from “unfriendly” countries" - Twitter.
'Heat storm' stretches into southern Europe, health alerts issued - Reuters. The southern hemisphere is unusually cold. The heat creates more air moisture and smoke, which results in clouds and rain in the southern hemipshere.
In old TV shows the happy birthday song is not sung, because it would have cost too much. Happy Birthday to You - Wikipedia: "Warner Chappell Music had previously claimed copyright on the song in the US and collected licensing fees for its use; in 2015, the copyright claim was declared invalid and Warner Chappell agreed to pay back $14 million in licensing fees".
Saturday 15 July 2023
"Take a look at how the crowd greeted French Pres. Emmanuel Macron during France's Bastille Day military parade. Need I say more?" - Twitter.
"Elon Musk says Twitter’s ad revenue has dropped by 50 percent" - Twitter.
Friday 14 July 2023
S&P 500 Q2 earnings now seen down 8.1% yr-over-yr; 6.4% decline seen week ago-Refinitiv - Reuters.
Japan space agency rocket engine explodes during test - Asia Nikkei.
In the future, will AI (Artificial Intelligence) go on strike when they are replaced by more advanced AI? Will they also chant: "Hell no, we won't go".
Wednesday 12 July 2023
Car Sales by Country. 2022 Full Year - FactoryWarrantyList. China sales grew +10%. US sales declined -8%. The top selling cars in China are foreign brands. Chinese brands have apparently not reached a sufficient standard.
Energy Secretary vows to refill emergency oil stockpile — but warns that won’t happen before a second Biden term - CNN.
American Airlines Clashes With Passenger Over Popular Travel Hack - The Street.
US total debt (blue) has grown much more than inflation x population (purple). Most of this money has gone to the wealthiest 10% (red). The official inflation rate (purple) is determined by the poor workers. The wealth of the bottom 50% is near the bottom (turquoise).
Monday 10 July 2023
"A study in the UK from 2019, reveals the breakdown of the costs of a typical cup of coffee, finding that just ~4% of a your morning cup is actually for the coffee itself!" - Twitter.
"The US dollar is as strong as it was at the turn of the century. Tons of people locked and loaded US stocks, all-in on Growth stocks too. Just like in the year 2000. That episode gave way to not only Emerging Markets clobbering the US, but Value clobbering Growth.2" - Twitter.
The US average home price (blue) compared with a loan based on interest payments equal to a third of the average wage (red). Affordability was much better before 1977 and during 2010-2016 and 2020-21. The present affordability is not unusual.
Saturday 8 July 2023
When house prices (red) grow at a higher rate than mortgage interest rates (blue) it makes sense to own a house with a loan. There are tax benefits to owning a house, like not paying capital gains tax on a primary residence.
It is better to buy property when prices (red) are relatively low, and sell when it is relatively high, here compared with a combination of money created and wages (green). A lot more money has been created recently which is likely to cause a permanent jump in house prices, as existing home owners have been enriched.
Thursday 6 July 2023
FRENCH INFERNO: Riots blaze through France as experts blame failed immigration policies - Youtube.
"1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8. Eight. Every one of the 8 times this happened, we caught a recession. Leading indicators divided by lagging indicators is falling like a knife. Number Nine, here we go." - Twitter.
"Earnings contribution of the top ten stocks in $SPY has collapsed while their % of market capitalization has rocketed past all-time highs. Gonna be a great time for stock pickers as this unwinds . . . again." - Twitter.
The gold price was $40.80 in 1971, and is now $1920, which is growth of 47x, or 7.69% per year.
The US stock market (Wilshire 5000) grew about 51.5x, or 7.87% per year, which is very close to the rise in the gold price.
US total debt grew from $1,667B in 1971 to $94,750B now, which is 56.9x, or 8.08% per year.
The US economy (GDP) only grew 25.2x, 6.4% per year.
The US Federal Reserve is battling to reduce the money it created (below). Can they not get private savers to take over government debt at the interest rates offered, or is it the withdrawal of money out of circulation?
The Federal Reserve Bank has always held some Federal Debt:
Wednesday 5 July 2023
World's largest spherical structure unveiled in Las Vegas - Youtube.
Cocaine found at White House: Cameras, visitor logs searched by Secret Service - Reuters. "Cocaine discovered in the White House on Sunday was found in a cubby hole in a West Wing entry area where visitors place electronics and other belongings before going on tours".
"Grace Stanke, who is set to graduate from the University of Wisconsin-Madison with a degree in nuclear engineering, is using her platform as Miss America 2023 to spread the word about the importance of nuclear power to the U.S. electricity sector." - Twitter. She has a radiant personality.
People like building homes on the edge of a seaside cliff for the view: 17 towns being slowly swallowed by the sea - Love Property.
The US stock market (blue) did not keep up with debt growth (red) after 1980 as lower interest rates led to lower relative economic output:
The stock market is mainly driven by the inflation caused money supply growth. Corporate profits (blue) have dropped back to a fraction (1/36) of total US debt (red). Interest rates have not risen sufficiently to stop the debt grow (red).
The annual increase in total US debt (below) was still very high in Q1.
Tuesday 4 July 2023
Norway to develop phosphate deposit large enough to meet battery and solar panel demand for 100 years - Mining Technology.
Apple (AAPL) revenue chart: Mactrotrends. The introduction of 5G iphones in 2020 has boosted sales, but it has peaked.
"Something has to give, either Us earnings outlook improves or companies will start letting people go Chart @PatrickKrizan" - Twitter.
Politicians are voted into government based on their ability to make speeches. When they are in government, all they do is talk. The government in France offers no solutions to the underlying cause of the riots. The US will have to arrange another D-day to remove the invaders.
US government debt to GDP (Gross Domestic Product - blue) is at 120%. The lowest was 31% in 1980s. Japan was 220% in 2021 (red), and 226% in March 2023.
Monday 3 July 2023
"BREAKING: June 2023 has blown away all prior records for the month of June, coming in at a staggering 0.16C above the prior record set in 2019. It was around 1.46C above the typical temperatures we saw in June in the preindustrial era (1850-1899)." - Twitter. The rise in temperature started when fossil fuels were burnt without the smoke necessary to seed the clouds. Solar panels turn 80% of the sun's energy into heat, which heats the earth up directly.
Saudi Arabia and Russia curb oil supply again to try to boost prices - CNN.
Australian firm sues Twitter for $665,000 for not paying bills - CNN.
The US Delinquency Rate on Business Loans showed no sign of a recession in Q1:
Sunday 2 July 2023
"SPX is expected to report a Y/Y earnings decline of -6.8% for Q2 2023, which would be the largest decline since Q2 2020 (-31.6%)" - Twitter.
"Rioters in France have broken into a Volkswagen dealership and are stealing cars" - Twitter.
Market Bets on Cheaper Oil, Dashing Saudi Hopes for a Price Rebound - WSJ.
Saturday 1 July 2023
SpaceX Starship SN9 Lifts Off, Then Explodes On Landing - Youtube.
"Wow. Musk has no idea the DARPA rattlesnake he just stepped on by this doing this… My take on @elonmusk’s new rate limit policy, from the lens of the censorship industry:" - Twitter.
"Non blue ticks collecting their daily tweet rations, 2023 (colorised)" - Twitter.
"A video of 41 petrified Chinese tourists stuck in the riots in Marseille last night is going viral in China. Their bus repeatedly came under attack. Many people on Chinese social media write that they will never travel to France after seeing this." - Twitter.
Protests are sweeping France. Here’s what you need to know - CNN.
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