Wednesday 31 May 2023
Are electric micro-cars, NEVs, and LSVs street-legal in the US? Here’s how to know - Electrek.
Tuesday 30 May 2023
Why does US president Biden look more and more like the puppet Walter of Jeff Dunham?
Monday 29 May 2023
"NEW - Australians shiver through the coldest May ever as temperatures plunge to record lows across the country." - Twitter. It is all Al Gore's fault.
The worst aspect of government debt is that it is not repaid. Government debt typically only increases. It is seldom invested in capital projects which generate the income to pay back the debt. Imagine a household that borrows more every year, without repaying it. Government can do it, because it also prints money and devalues its debt, effectively writing it off, if interest rates are below the actual inflation rate. The annual increase in US Federal Debt as a fraction of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is shown below. Since the Great Recession of 2008-9 it reached 11% and 22% at times.
When the government takes money out of circulation by borrowing and then spends it, the economic output is maintained. However government is an inefficient spender of the public's money. The long term effect of government's borrowing is to weaken the economy.
Friday 26 May 2023
"Turkey's entire banking system is now funded day-to-day by periodic USD currency swap injections by Gulf states." - Twitter.
Dollar Tree Plunges After Profit Tumbles As Thieves Pillage Stores - Zero Hedge.
"It’s becoming increasingly clear that Saudi Arabia is no longer interested in staying in Washington’s good books, and the OPEC+ cartel will do anything in its power to keep oil prices high." - Twitter. Arab countries do not care about the US.
On a log scale, the correlation can be seen between the US stock market (blue), and the underlying driver namely inflation and some economic growth, as money supply or debt growth (red). For how long can a dozen big monopolies with big profit margins hold up the stock market?
Thursday 25 May 2023
Japanese Companies Invest in British Core Power Floating Nuclear Power - NextBigFuture.
DeSantis-Musk Twitter announcement hit by tech glitch - Youtube.
WATCH: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis Announces 2024 Presidential Bid With Elon Musk On Twitter | Full - Youtube.
"You mean “let them eat cake”, madame…." - Twitter.
"Given the Nvidia valuations, I think it's worth sharing this anectode from the 2000s. At its peak, the Sun Microsystems stock hit valuation of 10x sales. When stocks took a massive beating later on, this is what its CEO Scott McNealy had to say to investors:" - Twitter.
Wednesday 24 May 2023
The surprising reasons that more golf carts are becoming car replacements - Electrek.
Tuesday 23 May 2023
China-Based Gotion Unveils 621-Mile Battery, Mass Production To Begin Next Year - InsideEvs.
"The Shocking Truth: Unwashed Towels Rival Toilets In Bacteria Counts After Just Three Days" - Twitter.
"Argentina introduced its largest-denomination banknote on Monday as inflation running at more than 100% a year forces the population to carry ever growing stacks of cash to pay for everyday purchases." - Twitter.
Monday 22 May 2023
"BREAKING: Facebook owner Meta hit by record €1.2 billion European Union privacy fine and given deadline to stop shipping users’ data to the US" - Twitter.
Europe's natural gas price (blue) is returning to money supply growth (red):
US Total Business Inventories relative to Gross Domestic Product (quarterly), has not changed significantly since 2003:
The number of years the average person in the US holds onto a car has increased over 46 years:
Friday 19 May 2023
Someone in China Sent Me an Electric Micro-Car - Youtube.
"New York City is sinking under the weight of skyscrapers, according to a study" - Twitter. Whenever there is water nearby, one has to wonder about the stability of the ground.
"Some executive at $DIS thought a Star Wars hotel with 100 rooms charging $6,000 per room for a two night stay in a windowless room was a good idea. Genius!" - Twitter.
The first American-assembled electric mini-truck? AYRO opens pre-orders - Electrek.
Post-9/11 US Conflicts Killed Over 4.5 Million People: Study - Zero Hedge. Which is all the result of the land taken for Israel after the Second World War. In 1947 the United Nations had a partition plan for a proposed Jewish state, the same organisation that rejected apartheid in South Africa.
....Biden Seeking Joint Military Planning With Israel On Iran - Zero Hedge.
From 1981 to 2009 the US created more money (blue) than economic growth (red). Interest rates were lowered, which caused asset appreciation without increasing economic output. The brief increase in money supply in 2020-21 (blue) resulted in an increase in economic output (red). If economic output (red) stays above money supply (blue) it suggests real economic growth, if inflation is assumed to be equal to money or debt growth.
On the previous chart it might look like economic output could exceed money created, but ratio of the two (below) shows the economy has not recovered to the same level.
The reverse of the chart is the debt relative to economic output. Lower interest rates also resulted in more debt relative to economic output.
Thursday 18 May 2023
"Montana has officially banned TikTok as of Wednesday, with the law going into effect Jan. 1, 2024." - Twitter. TikTok seems like a very small factor in the decline of civilization.
US gambling as a percentage of economic output rose from 1929 until 2007, except for a slight decline during the Second World War:
Wednesday 17 May 2023
State of democracy around the world 2023 - Visual Capitalist. Canada and Australia still have the UK monarch as head of state. They are not democracies. India has a long list of politicians who have been assassinated (Wikipedia).
Tuesday 16 May 2023
"Apple is now bigger than the entire market cap of the Russell 2000 index. It's also bigger than the entire market cap of the Toronto Stock Exchange, while only the recent rebound of the pound has stopped it from overtaking the FTSE in London.'" Twitter.
"As if foreigners didn't have enough incentives to dump their U.S. dollars, the FDIC just gave them another. Foreign customer's of #SVB weren't extended the same protection as domestic customers and will take heavy losses. The message to foreigners is clear. Don't bank in the U.S." Twitter.
OECD has a chart of Normalised Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the Euro Area that is flat for 62 years.
Euro area GDP relative to money supply as nominal inflation rate has declined since at least 1995. Of the Euros in circulation, 1.52x was spent in a year in 1995. It is now down to just 0.85x. The most likely reason is that most of the money is held by wealthy people, who don't need to spend it, whilst the workers have been impoverished by money printing, and have less income to spend. The debt has also increased relative to economic production.
The percentage of US employees in manufacturing has declined since 1943 (blue), and the percentage of federal government employees (red). The percentage of construction workers has remained the same (green). The percentage of leisure and hospitality workers has increased (purple), and private education and health services (light blue).
Monday 15 May 2023
The US still has high levels of crude oil stock, excluding strategic petroleum reserves: EIA.
Friday 12 May 2023
"First, it was wildfires in Alberta, Canada. Now, wildfires have broken out across the Urals and Siberia in Russia. Take a look." - Twitter. Smoke is required to seed the clouds. The cleaner human emissions, the more wild fires are required.
Waterfront property for sale in Spain - Met Et Demeures. Everybody now wants to live in Spain.
US electricity prices have risen just 2.9% per year since 1978 (blue). The price of natural gas (red) is back to 1981 levels.
There has been no increase in US Electric Power Generation, Transmission, and Distribution since 2007:
Thursday 11 May 2023
This Genius Airplane consumes Less Fuel than SUV - Youtube.
Wednesday 10 May 2023
Australia government debt relative to Gross Domestic Product was 12.2% in 1990, and 70.2% in 2021.
Australia government expenditure to Gross Domestic Product:
Tuesday 9 May 2023
US government deficit (blue) and debt (red) relative to Gross Domestic Product. The debt levels are at a similar level as in 1946 after the Second World War.
House rentals in Ireland (blue) is not high relative to Euro money (red).
Berkshire Hathaway Cash on Hand 2010-2022 | BRK.B - Macrotrends. Cash levels were low at the end of 2022. Annual report 2022 - Berkshire Hathaway. Cash was $32.260B + $3.552B at the end of 2022. First quarter report 2023 - Berkshire Hathaway. Cash was $23.805B + $2.942B at the end of Q1, 2.7% of total assets.
Sunday 7 May 2023
California task force approves proposal for state reparations to Black residents - PBS. People start searching for black ancestors.
Saturday 6 May 2023
S&P 500 Price to Sales Ratio - Multipl. The US stock market is expensive, especially with interest rates rising.
S&P 500 PE Ratio - 90 Year Historical Chart - Macrotrends. The S&P 500 PE ratio is making a head-and-shoulders pattern which would take it to zero.
Walmart (WMT) trades on a price/earnings of $151.77/$4.27 = 36, which is an earnings yield of 2.8%. Profits have declined for two years, and is lower than 2011. Revenue growth for the year tot Jan was +6.7% Dividend yield is $0.56/$151.77 = 0.37%. Share buybacks was 2.5%. Almost all the profits is returned to shareholders through buybacks. Total shareholder return is 9.6%. The valuation is dependent on their ability to continue passing on inflation. Revenue growth the last 10 years was 2.7% per year. US money supply grew about 5.0% per year.
Friday 5 May 2023
DeSantis signs bill to void Disney’s deal with Reedy Creek - Yahoo Finance.
Euro Area central bank assets (blue) are a big part of the money in circulation (red):
....compared to the US. US total debt (red) was still shooting higher in Q4. Interest rates need to rise until the debt growth slows.
Thursday 4 May 2023
Regional bank stocks continue to slide on Thursday with PacWest leading the way down 50% - CNBC.
Revisiting the ultimate chart for the US stock market, by comparing the Wilshire 5000 with total debt as nominal inflation rate. To make real money requires buying at a low level on the chart, and selling at a high level. At this point real growth is highly unlikely. If the stock market goes sideways, the rise in the stock market just matches inflation.
FRED has an Industrial Commodities index back to 1913 (blue). It matches Average Hourly Earnings from 1964 (red).
Wednesday 3 May 2023
"In the year to April 2023, a record 110,935 luxury vehicles were sold. Sales of Lamborghini were up 62% on the year with Aston Martin up 15% and Audi up 20%." - Twitter.
"The European Union is officially insane. The buyout scheme prohibits Dutch farmers from moving to other countries and starting up farms abroad, meaning that their knowledge and expertise would be lost." - Twitter. The EU has long been infamous for burocracy. Things that need authority like immigration or crime is not controlled.
Tuesday 2 May 2023
"To sell an EV for $50,000, it costs Ford $101,000" - Twitter.
Monday 1 May 2023
FAA sued over SpaceX Starship launch program following April explosion - CNBC. Adidas sued by shareholders over its failed Ye partnership - CNN. Main pastime in the US.
The FDIC has a chart of Total Assets and Bank Failures: Bank Failures in Brief – Summary 2001 through 2023 - FDIC.
Bitcoin is working on the right shoulder of a multiyear head-and-shoulders pattern.
The Delinquency Rate on Commercial Real Estate Loans remained low up to Q4:
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