Sunday 31 July 2022
"Which of these hidden sources of sugar surprises you the most? " - Twitter. Reason to avoid processed foods. Manufacturers add sugar to everything.
"Ron Paul : This man is a national treasure" - Twitter. Taxes should be replaced by government at every level becoming a voluntary service provider paid for directly by the public. That will bring an absolute end to government inefficiency.
Argentina’s Government Collapsing, People Refuse To Work Amid Major Subsidy Cuts - Zero Hedge. Argentina's Gross Domestic Product was 15088 billion Pesos in Q1 of 2022 (The Global Economy). M3 money supply was about 13,000 billion Pesos (Trading Economics). Thus the velocity of money supply was 4x15,088 /13,000 = 4.6. The money in circulation is spent 4.6 times per year. Apparently people have less money saved up, and survive from month to month.
Saturday 30 July 2022
Washington DC Mayor requests National Guard assistance amid migrant crisis - Youtube.
Netflix Sues Co-Creators of ‘The Unofficial Bridgerton Musical’ Over “For-Profit” Performances - Hollywood Reporter.
"World Economic Forum Headed By Klaus Schwab Says Private Ownership Of Cars Is No Longer Needed By Regular "Joe Blow" Proletariat Types Like Us.
No Restrictions On Private Jets" - Twitter.
Why Old Spice, Colgate and Dawn are locked up at drug stores - CNN.
"Flash flooding devastates parts of Kentucky" - Twitter. People love living next to rivers. During hot weather the air can hold more moisture, resulting in heavy rains. The water that transferred energy from the surface to the atmosphere must return to earth to complete the cooling cycle.
This chart shows total US total debt x Federal Funds Effective Rate. It is an indication of the interest payable on debt. A high level often leads to a recession. The second quarter debt has not been released yet. If debt reaches $92,000B with the interest rate at 2.33% now, the product would shoot up to 210,000, the second highest level on the chart. During the second quarter the interest rate was lower at 0.33% to 1.58%.
The Euro area economic output was only 38% of the money in circulation in 1965. Now it is down to 20.6%. The drop in 2020 due to an increase in the money supply is still working its way through the economy as inflation. This chart show the immediate decline in real economic output.
Friday 29 July 2022
The U.S. government underestimated the cost of the student loan program by billions - NPR.
Elon Musk files countersuit under seal vs Twitter over $44 billion deal - Reuters.
"You want terminator robots? Because this is how you get terminator robots." - Twitter.
"how mirrors are made" - Twitter.
“Strong hiring and falling GDP mean an unsustainable collapse in productivity. The labor market should slow quickly, soon… The Fed is likely to respond slowly to a recession. We think market optimism about a dovish Fed pivot is premature” BofA’s Michael Gapen - Twitter.
Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 - Wikipedia. The headline looks like a joke. Government wants to spend money to reduce inflation. They probably mean subsidize with other people's money.
"Wikipedia has changed the definition of recession. Wayback's last capture was July 11, 2022. Based on Wiki's changelog, the line: "There is no global consensus on the definition of a recession" was added on July 27. The page is now locked." - Twitter.
US nominal economic growth (blue) was 9.28% for the second quarter, close to the official inflation rate (red). The way government statistic services come up with just the right inflation rate is hilarious. Nominal GDP (blue) is heading down, so inflation (red) will need a downward adjustment. Real economic declines occurred in 2008-09 and 2020 (blue below red). That is when the economic decline is so fast that the inflation rate can't be adjusted in time.
Thursday 28 July 2022
Amazon (AMZN) Investor Relations: Q2 revenue +7.2%, dEPS down from $0.76 to -$0.20 loss, the share price is $134.95, compared to revenue per share of ~4xR11.91 ~ $47.66.
Apple (AAPL) smartphones, Investor Relations: Q3 revenue +1.2% (+36.4%, 8.4% and 1.0% previous three year), dEPS down from $1.30 to $1.20, net profit margin down from 26.8% to 23.5%, price/earnings $157.35/$6.06 = 26.
‘Tomb Raider’ Film Rights Has Hollywood in “Feeding Frenzy” - Hollywood Reporter.
China Electric Car Market — 28% Share Of Auto Sales In June! - Cleantechnica.
If interest rates are kept low despite inflation, one would expect debt to grow, savings to decline, and ever increasing money creation to satisfy the demand for debt, leading to more inflation, etc. US money supply (blue) did not increase at a higher and higher rate despite low interest rates (red) since 2009, expect for the sudden increase in 2020-21:
US total debt (blue) does show an increasing rate of growth. US debt is much bigger than the money supply. Normally people can only borrow the money other people save, so that debt equals money supply. It appears money supply is not being measured properly. There is additional currency.
If we deduct money supply from debt, we can the see the size of this additonal currency (blue) compared to money supply (red):
Wednesday 27 July 2022
"Remember that quarter-century period that recently ended, when new auto prices DIDN'T GO UP AT ALL (if you believed the
@BLS_gov)? That was what went into the CPI, and almost nobody questioned it. Good times." - Twitter.
US interest rates need to rise until the supply and demand for credit is in balance. The big problem is who the creditors or holders of the debt are. US national or government debt is only part of the total debt, and that is mostly held by Fed and governments accounts, and foreigners: The Balance. Interest rates must be attractive enough relative to inflation for the public to save. The federal funds rate is nowhere near that equilibrium.
Meta Platforms (META) was Facebook (FB), Investor Relations: Q1 revenue -1% (+56% a year ago), shares -5.7% less, dEPS down from $3.61 to $2.46, net profit margin is down from 35.7% to 23.2%, price/earnings = $169.58/~4x$2.46 ~ 17.
REIT Investing 101 - Talk Markets.
Two Trades To Watch: Gold, DAX - Wednesday, July 27 - Talk Markets.
Buying back shares above the NAV (Net Asset Value): (1) A business has an NAV of $1M, or $1 per shares, and the share price is $10. If it used the full $1M to buy back shares, the NAV would go down to $0. It would repurchase 10% of the outstanding shares, which would boost EPS (Earnings Per Share) by 10%. It is hardly worth it. (2) The share price is below NAV. Repurchasing any amount of shares boosts NAV per share. It could buy back all the issued shares with the NAV.
Tuesday 26 July 2022
Visa class A (V) results: Q3 revenue +27%, dEPS up from $1.38 to $1.98, net profit margin is 65%, price/earnings = $212.49/~4x$1.98 = 27. They repurchased 12.2M shares at an average price of $202.16, whilst the NAV is $14.88.
Alphabet Class A (GOOGL), Alphabet Class C (GOOG) results: Q2 revenue +12.6%, shares -2.6% less, dEPS from $1.36 to $1.21, net profit margin down from 32% to 23%, price/earnings $105.02/~4x$1.21 ~ 22. Apparently they bought back shares at 5x net asset value of $19.3 per share.
McDonald's Corp (MCD), restaurants. results Q2 revenue -3%, dEPS down from $2.95 to $1.60, price/earnings $257.09/~4x$1.60 ~ 40, price/sales $257.09/~4x$7.07 ~9.1, net profit margin 20.9%. It is expensive.
Coca-Cola Company (KO). results: Q2 revenue +12% (+13% over 3 years), dEPS down from $0.61 to $0.44, price/earnings = $63.52/~4x$0.44 ~ 36. Unit case volume sold was +8% more. If all cases are the same, then selling price inflation was +3.7%, and cost inflation 16.5%.
The best trading tips you'll hear: Gareth Soloway's principles to becoming a master trader - Youtube.
Stop Saying the U.S. Dollar Is Strong, ‘It’s a Lie’; China on Track To Become Reserve Currency - Youtube.
Create an Estate like a Rockefeller and not a Vanderbilt - Youtube.
"JUST IN: The Senate has voted to advance a roughly $280 billion package to boost funding for domestic chip production" - Twitter. That works out to $2100 per household. How much money does a household spend on semiconductor components? The factory cost of those components is a fraction of the sales price of equipment.
The Super-Cheap Solar-Powered Car Is Finally Here! - Youtube.
Governments spending to GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is growing everywhere. More people become dependent on financial support from government. Just like Zimbabwe and Venezuela, governments increasingly have to print money, because the private sector becomes too small to pay for it. For example in France government spending is 60% of GDP. Only 40% private sector is left. This could eventually lead to another revolution, in which poor peasants overthrow the government, and they start from scratch with a small government. History repeats itself.
Monday 25 July 2022
Walmart shares slump after retailer cuts profit outlook on inflation concerns - CNBC.
Back to black? Germany's coal power plan hits hurdles - Reuters.
"JUST IN - Russia to withdraw from ISS space station after 2024, Roscosmos chief told Putin" - Disclose.tv, Twitter.
"At this point, it’s Emmanuel and Princess Against Education" - Eco sister, Twitter.
Sunday 24 July 2022
Amid Deadly Heatwave, Al Gore Warns Atmosphere Could 'Get a Lot Worse' - People.
Winter storms blanket parts of South America in feet of snow - Fox Weather.
"Politics ought to be the part-time profession of every citizen who would protect the rights and privileges of free people and who would preserve what is good and fruitful in our national heritage." – Dwight D. Eisenhower - Twitter. Instead the public votes for professional politicians whose only motivation is to win elections.
Saturday 23 July 2022
"NEW - Wind turbine struck by lighting in Cromwell, Texas" - Disclose.tv, Twitter.
We installed ChromeOS Flex on an old laptop — with impressive results - Mybroadband. "Although it shipped with Windows 10, I noticed it had become sluggish in the past year".
"Lol send in your silly adjusted reasonings .." - Twitter. Leaders who caught Covid despite vaccinations.
"The clearest image ever taken of Venus!" - Twitter.
Friday 22 July 2022
RINGSIDE SEAT TO HYPERINFLATION: Ignore This At Your Peril - Youtube.
Governors Keep Busing Migrants to Washington - Voa News.
Twitter (TWTR) Investor Relations: Q2 revenue -1.1% lower, shares -11.7% less, dEPS -$0.35 loss, or non-GAAP dEPS -$0.08 loss, price/sales = $39.52/~4x$1.53 ~6.5. It is expensive relative to sales.
"The Fed's balance sheet expanded for the 2nd week in a row. The #Fed is back peddling on QT, and soon the process will reverse after barely getting started. With the economy in #recession and annual budget deficits over $2 trillion, the Fed will resume QE to suppress bond yields." - Peter Schiff, Twitter.
Piles of golf bags were left at Scotland's Edinburgh Airport after players flew out from The Open - Business Insider SA.
Pat Benatar Explains Why She Won't Sing 'Hit Me With Your Best Shot' Anymore - JustJared.
Johnny Depp Files To Appeal $2 Million Verdict In Amber Heard’s Favor From Defamation Countersuit - Hollywood Life. Suing an ex-wife for defamation probably does not improve your image.
Massive Brawl Breaks Out Between Families Waiting in Line for Ride at Disney World - People.
Some people think that interest rates are raised due to inflation or a weaker currency, and that it is unnecessary because some price increases, like the oil price, is due to limited supply. Interest rates are determined by the supply and demand for credit. If higher prices lead to a greater demand for credit, then interest rates must go up. Otherwise the government must create more money to satisfy the demand, which leads to inflation. The reserve bank should know exactly what the supply and demand for credit is.
Governments print money anyway to pay for expenses, and higher taxes due to bracket creep also lead to inflation. If nobody saves, and nobody borrows money (cash economy) raising interest rates does nothing to stop inflation.
Thursday 21 July 2022
Amazon targets Facebook groups to curb fake product reviews - Popsci.
"BlackRock, $BLK, just lost the largest amount of money lost by a single firm over a six-month period. In the first half of this year, it lost $1.7 trillion of clients' money." - Twitter.
Biden plans talks with China's Xi soon, casts doubt on Pelosi Taiwan trip - Reuters. Playing good cop, bad cop?
How politicians get filthy rich (by rigging the system) - Youtube.
Wednesday 20 July 2022
ASML Holding NV (ASML), semiconductor equipment, Investors: Q2 sales +35%, dEPS up from $2.52 to $3.54, price/earnings $514.42/~4x€3.54 ~ 36. In January the company expected 20% sales growth for the year, and now 10%.
Baker Hughes (BKR) was (BHGE), oil & gas equipment & services, Investor Center: Q2 revenue -1.8% lower, shares +25% more, dEPS -$0.84 or adjusted $0.11. The adjusted price/earnings $25.89/~4x$0.11 ~59, and price/sales $25.89/~4x$5.00 ~1.3.
"There are no lights, no running fans and no respite for Cubans suffering through chronic blackouts and sweltering weather. And there is no end in sight " - Reuters, Twitter.
"OMG" - Twitter.
"Look who's entered the housing market" - Twitter. "Funniest video I’ve ever seen on the internet" - Twitter.
"The US Treasury Yield Curve has formed a rare Long Tailed Weasel technical pattern" - Twitter.
Since 2018 the US stock market has more or less made a megaphone pattern with higher highs and lower lows. The lower support line would take it to 20,000. Going back to 2016 the support line is 24,000. Due to inflation the index should have an upward slant. If you ignore the extreme dips and spikes, the market is getting close to an extension of the 2018-2020 period, but the economic decline is still to come.
Tuesday 19 July 2022
Netflix (NFLX) Investors Q2 revenue +8.6%, dEPS up from $2.97 to $3.20, P/E = $201.49/$11.25 = 17.9, price/sales = $201.49/~4x$17.65 = 2.9. Revenue growth has slowed after it peaked at 35% in 2018. The share price has already declined from a peak of $690.31 in Oct.
"I'll be LIVE on the floor of the U.S. Senate at 4pm ET to explain why throwing billions of dollars at the profitable microchip industry, which over the last 20 years shut down hundreds of plants in the U.S. and eliminated 150,000 jobs, with no strings attached makes no sense." - Bernie Sanders, Twitter.
"CHART OF THE DAY: The impact of the heat-wave and low nuclear availability (plus muted wind): French day-ahead baseload electricity surges to a fresh record high of €630 per MWh" - Twitter.
Monday 18 July 2022
Dutch central bank fines Binance 3.3 million euros - Reuters.
Toys 'R' Us is coming back. Soon, it'll be almost everywhere - CNN.
Sunday 17 July 2022
A HREF="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lG660H1JjWU">There is a 'deafening media silence' on global protests - Youtube.
Declyn Lauper: 5 Things About Cyndi Lauper’s Son, 24, Arrested In Stolen Car - Reuters. He drove all night.
Biden disputes Saudi account of Khashoggi murder discussion - Reuters. Biden disagrees with all public opinions.
The level of overvaluation of the US stock market differs significantly between price/earnings and price/(sales or gross domestic product). Initially after a lot of money is created (blue), sales boom and cost inflation has not come through yet, so companies have big profits. The price/earnings of the market doesn't look that bad. Then the inflation as a result of the money increase comes through. Margins decline, which increases the price/earnings ratio. Sales increase due to inflation, not volume growth. If nominal GDP (red) continues to grow the price/sales ratio will decline.
Saturday 16 July 2022
Heatwave scorches Europe; health warnings issued - Reuters. "In Portugal, the highest temperature on Thursday was recorded in the northern town of Pinhao at 47 C (116.6 F), just below the record."
Slow-moving high pressure systems are keeping us cold, and La Niña has not had her final say - ABC News Aus. "And Victoria has seen the coldest start to winter since about the 1940s".
Friday 15 July 2022
She lived alone in a fairytale house on an island for 8 yrs! - Youtube.
European cities set all-time temperature records amid unrelenting heat wave - CNN. The southern hemisphere is unusually cold.
"This is typical of a bear market rally....I'm not convinced we've seen the bottom yet," says Crossmark Global Investments CIO Bob Doll - Twitter. The US stock market is no where near any bottom, unless the government prints a lot more money. The S&P 500 to GDP still has a long way to go: Longtermtrends. A few false recoveries on the way down is common.
Elon Musk v. Twitter: a Third Powerful Player Makes Noise - The Street. The SEC wastes its time on frivolous issues, instead of dealing with the extreme volatility of the stock market, speculators and computer algorithm trading taking money from the long term investors who supply capital, and ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds) with no valuation metric.
"Today, I measure #Argentina's inflation rate at a shocking 77%/yr. On their independence day, Argentinians took to the street to protest against runaway inflation and political corruption." - Twitter. These are the people who are not paid by the gorvernment, or don't own assets that protect them against inflation.
EV batteries: Recycling startup extracts cobalt, nickel 100 times faster - Nikkei Asia.
Thursday 14 July 2022
Two-thirds of new renewables were cheaper than coal in 2021 – IRENA - Electrek. They use terms like Levelised Cost Of Electricity (LCOE) so nobody knows what the actual cost is. What is the capacity utilization? Since wind is only available 25% of the time, the capacity must be duplicated with gas turbines. The cost of the two together is the actual cost of electricity. A wind turbine only lasts 20 years, whilst a coal power plant can last 50-60 years.
Amazon acts to end EU antitrust investigations, avoid fine - Reuters.
Bearish Tesla Bet Is Among First Single-Stock ETFs to Hit US - Bloomberg.
Chip giant TSMC warns of 'excessive inventory' at clients - Nikkei Asia.
Tesla alums launch a new electric RV startup: Lightship - Electro.
Celsius, one of crypto’s biggest lenders, files for bankruptcy - TechCrunch.
Retirement Tsunami Ahead - Robert Kiyosaki, John MacGregor - Youtube.
Chile is a big copper producer. When the Chilean peso is weak (blue up), the US dollar price of copper is low (orange down). It could also be the big buyers of copper (China) that causes the copper price volatility which influences the Chilean peso. That is short term. Over the long term inflation in Chile lifts the dollar copper price. Chile's copper production has not increased for 10 years, and has declined since January (Trading Economics).
Wednesday 13 July 2022
Kids and teens now spend more time watching TikTok than YouTube, new data shows - TechCrunch.
"May #CPI up 1.3%, 9.1% YoY, highest since 1981. Real #inflation 18%, highest ever. When will markets figure out that tiny rate hikes put upward pressure on prices. Until we get massive QT, and large cuts in government spending and middle class tax hikes, inflation will get worse!" - Twitter.
Inflation will come back to 6% after the 25% money supply growth has spread through the economy. The population will be poorer, and government will be under pressure to hand out more money. You can already see people thinking that when the inflation rate goes down or even slightly negative, that prices never went up. The average price increase will be permanent, and will continue higher at a lower rate. As the spike in some commodity prices fall back, other prices will go up. The Federal Reserve will not be able to withdraw much money.
From 25 Feb: The Cheese Caves of the United States - Youtube.
"$tsla repairability is essentially zero" - Twitter. This is what happens when there is no contact between the design department and service department. From 4 June: US passes world's first 'right to repair' law for digital electronics - Business Standard. "The first short Tesla, $TSLA, ETF will launch tomorrow with the ticker name $TSLQ" - Twitter.
In the long run the US dollar gold price matches US money supply, but the ratio has varied between 2 and 20: In Gold We Trust. Gold has done a lot better than other commodities like copper. If gold was as abundant as copper, it would have been much cheaper. The gold price is $56,000 per kg, and copper $7.37/kg. Gold is 10,000 times more difficult to extract from the earth. Copper Alliance: "Global copper reserves are estimated at 870 million tonnes (United States Geological Survey [USGS], 2020), and annual copper demand is 28 million tonnes. Current copper resources are estimated to exceed 5,000 million tonnes (USGS, 2014 & 2017)." It looks like copper has reached a minimum level relative to US money supply. If you believe in reverse head-and-shoulders patterns, it is working on a right shoulder, which could take the price 29% higher.
Compared to US M2 money supply (red), the wheat price (blue) is extremely cheap relative to the price before 2000, and cheap relative to the price after 2000. Given the big increase in money supply, the price of wheat won't fall back to the previous low levels.
Tuesday 12 July 2022
"It is incredible to observe how fast the tech world changes. Companies which seem unassailable suddenly disappear into footnotes of history." - Twitter.
"JUST IN - Twitter has filed a lawsuit in Delaware to force Elon Musk to buy the platform for $44 billion" - Twitter. It doesn't make sense for Twitter management to force the takeover, because they would lose their jobs, unless they get big severance packages. Are the shareholders of Twitter suing?
PepsiCo (PEP), soft drinks, Investors Q2: revenue +5.2%, dEPS down from $1.70 to $1.03, or core EPS up from $1.72 to $1.86. Revenue growth is below inflation. They actually provide volume changes. Frito-Lay North America had organic revenue growth of 14% and -2% lower volume, which could be inflation of +16.3% per unit, if customers bought the same products as a year ago.
First Images from the James Webb Space Telescope - Nasa. Astrophysics Professor Explains James Webb Space Telescope Results: What do they mean? What's next? - Youtube.
Elon Musk: Trump Too Old For Presidency, Should ‘Hang Up His Hat & Sail Into The Sunset’ - Forbes.
Does the US have more cars than the EU with all its public transport? The US with 258.3M adults had 286.9M motor vehicles in 2020 (Finances Online) which is 111%. The EU with 287M adults had 246.3M cars in 2020 (ACEA) which is 86%. The EU public pays for subsidized public transport in addition to their own vehicles.
SAS unit repeatedly killed Afghan detainees, BBC finds - BBC.
From 24 June: Sales of New US Homes Jumped in May, Marking First Gain This Year - Bloomberg. Hurrah.
From 21 June: Sales of existing homes fell in May, and more declines are expected - CNBC. Oh no.
US Retailer Inventories to Sales Ratio on a historic decline, with a recent increase, what ever that means. It does increase around recessions.
Monday 11 July 2022
"Today, in America, just three Wall Street firms – BlackRock, Vanguard and State Street - manage $22 trillion in assets. These three firms are major shareholders in more than 96 percent of S&P 500 companies. Obscene." - Twitter.
"Sneak a peek at the deepest & sharpest infrared image of the early universe ever taken — all in a day’s work for the Webb telescope. (Literally, capturing it took less than a day!) This is Webb’s first image released as we begin to #UnfoldTheUniverse" - Twitter.
From 8 Jul: Collusion and Corruption in the Money Supply: Mark Skousen and Nomi Prins - Youtube.
From Stanford's Artificial Intelligence Index Report 2022: "The number of patents filed in 2021 is more than 30 times higher than in 2015, showing a compound annual growth rate of 76.9%" - Twitter. Exclusive rights limit competition and innovation, and increase prices.
The US dollar should weaken due to the big increase in money supply. The Euro/$ exchange rate (blue) should follow the ratio of money supply (red) minus economic growth. The US should have higher economic growth, but the two lines intersect over time, which suggests no difference in growth. The exchange rate deviate enormously from money supply over long periods.
The exchange rate (blue) usually corresponds to the difference in interest rates (green) up to 2004. After 2004 the interest ratio varies wildly due to interest rates close to zero, or negative. When green is high, interest rates in the Euro area is higher than the US. When blue is high, you get less Euros for a dollar, that is a stronger Euro. Thus the low interest rates in the Euro would give a weaker currency. Low interest rates lead to more money creation, and more inflation.
Cartoon - Twitter.
Sunday 10 July 2022
"The U.S. Internal Revenue Service categorizes gold and other precious metals as “collectibles” which are taxed at a 28% long-term capital gains rate. Gains on most other assets held for more than a year are subject to the 15% or 20% long-term capital gains rates." - Twitter.
From 15 March 2022: Dr. Patrick Moore-- Carbon and Climate Catastrophe - Youtube.
Population of India from 1800 to 2020 - Statista. India's population grew by 0.36% per year from 1800 to 1900, and by 1.8% per year the last 50 years.
Trump on Elon Musk: "You know, he said the other day, Oh, I've never voted for a Republican. I said, I didn't know that, he told me he voted for me. So he's another bullshit artist." - Twitter. "Not true" - Elon Musk, Twitter.
Saturday 9 July 2022
‘Disturbing’: weedkiller ingredient tied to cancer found in 80% of US urine samples - The Guardian.
"Weather models predicting record-breaking extreme heat in NW Europe around 17-18 July, with temperatures as high as 45°C (113°F) in Belgium" - Twitter. This is the result of the clean air movement. The earth is simply heating up until fires are ignited so smoke can seed the clouds.
"YARDENI RESEARCH QUICKTAKES (#inflation #commodities #gold July 8, 2022). Gold hasn't been a good hedge against inflation over the past highly inflationary year. That's not surprising since this precious metal's price is inversely correlated with the 10-y…" - Twitter.
"Colombo, Sri Lanka right now. The Presidential Palace has been stormed, President Gotabaya Rajapaksa is said to have fled. Unbelievable scenes." - Twitter. The president should offer them tea.
From 26 March: Sri Lanka’s Organic Experiment Went Very, Very Wrong - Modern Farmer.
Elon Musk pulls out of $44bn deal to buy Twitter - BBC. The share price never went up to the offer price. The market didn't believe it.
US Federal government debt per worker (blue) compared average annual wage (red). Until 1984 a worker could pay his share of government debt with one year's salary. Now it will take 4.2 year's worth of salary. Most taxes are passed on as higher prices or salary demands so the lowest income people end up paying for it. Companies must raise prices to pay for taxes, in order to remain profitable.
If you divide Hours of Wage and Salary Workers on Nonfarm Payrolls, by All Employees Total Nonfarm, people are apparently working less hours per year than in 1965:
Friday 8 July 2022
US vehicle sales declined up to May like it is a recession (grey band).
With the declining US money velocity, indicative of a shrinking real economy, why do US employment figures (blue) appear so robust? US government debt to GDP (red) was as low as 30% in 1981. Since 2008 the debt has shot up from 64% to 125% in Q1 of this year. Payment for government benefits has been postponed.
In 2000 employees received compensation equal to the money in circulation. In 2021 they received half of the money in circulation. If the increase in money supply equals inflation, then real wages are half of what it was in 2000.
Hotdog eating champion fights off activist mid-bite - Youtube. US overeating and aggression in one video, and on the 4th of July.
"European Commission has blocked a 1.5bn euro loan to Ukraine given concerns that Kiev will not be able to repay the money" - Twitter. As if member countries of the EU pay back debt. Greece's debt to GDP:
According to this chart Greece's government debt (blue) fell relative to GDP (red):
Thursday 7 July 2022
"Market Cap to GDP: June Buffett Valuation Indicator" - Twitter. Based on that metric the US stock market collapse still has a long way to go.
"Interesting graphic that debunks the #employment is strong story. " - Twitter.
From 28 May: Their RV wasn't up to code. Built Invisible Home instead - Youtube. "Burocratic quagmire".
Modern condos use ancient windcatcher tech to stay cool - Youtube.
Is the Chinese Yuan undervalued? The Yuan to US$ dollar exchange rate has stayed more or less the same for a decade. China's M2 money supply increased 11.1% over a past year, and about 12% per year for the last decade (Trading Economics). The US M2 money supply grew 6.4% over the last year, and 8.1% per year for the last decade (FRED). China appears to have 4% more economic growth per year than the US. China with its large low-cost workforce will have a weak currency compared to countries with exclusive exports.
From 28 June: How Far Can a Gas Truck & an Electric Ford Lightning Go Towing the Same Camper On ONE Fill-up? - Youtube.
"Elon Musk is the father of eight-month-old twins born to a senior executive at his artificial intelligence startup Neuralink, Insider reported, citing a court document. The two babies would bring Musk’s total known children to nine" - Twitter. It is becoming clear how Musk wants to colonize Mars.
"BREAKING: Tesla announces plan to pay travel costs for employees seeking out-of-state impregnations by the CEO." - Twitter.
Wednesday 6 July 2022
Explains Why Economic Collapse is Inevitable - Youtube.
Rich Dad’s New Survival Plan – Robert Kiyosaki, Kim Kiyosaki, and Peter Schiff - Youtube.
"$1 invested in $GE in Q4 1994 is worth $1 today" - Twitter.
"BREAKING: German benchmark 1-year forward electricity contract surges to an all-time high above €340 per MWh. At current price levels, German manufacturing is going to crumble." - Twitter.
The copper price is falling: Trading Economics. The price is extremely volatile, which suggests it is not a free market.
Biden's policies are 'failing catastrophically': Tengler - Youtube.
From 2009: 60 Minutes Archive: The man who figured out Madoff's Ponzi scheme - Youtube.
From 4 Jan 2019: Why renewables can’t save the planet | Michael Shellenberger | TEDxDanubia - Youtube.
Tuesday 5 July 2022
"EU #gas has returned to $300 per barrel #crudeoil equivalent" - Twitter.
From 12 June 2022: Chrome OS Flex: Google’s New PC OS - Youtube.
Where is the oil price going? OPEC held oil above $100 from 2011 to 2014, until a massive increase in US production from shale mining. US oil production peaked in Jan 2020, fell -15%, and is now going sideways (FRED). The demand for oil continues to grow, despite all the predictions (IEA). More solar and wind power requires more oil or gas as back-up power. Electric vehicles only shift the fuel to power stations. The 2009 US Great Recession did not slow demand (BP). Due to all the US dollar printing, a price above $100 seems more likely, than below. Russia could flood the market with oil.
Scientists at CERN observe three "exotic" particles for first time - Reuters.
From 3 Jul: "Today with @TeslaClubAT we climbed the highest mountain in Austria with 60 Teslas from 8 countries" - Twitter. The highest mountain in Austria is 3798m. The potential energy for a 2000kg vehicle is mgh = 2000kg x 9.8 m/s2 x 3798m = 74.44MJ. A Tesla battery of 80kWh holds 288MJ. Thus a quarter of the car's range would be used for the vertical lift. The battery would be partially recharged on the way down.
The whole Euro Area has more exports (blue) than imports (red) which means a net capital outflow, probably due to negative real interest rates, and a lack of private sector growth.
Monday 4 July 2022
"Dear friends and colleagues, This is a call for international conference organizers to think twice before organizing any conference in Western Europe/North America, where many academics from the Global South (GS) need a visa to enter. (1)" - Twitter. A visa is usually for 3 months, not 1year. The EU wants to make illegal immigration difficult, but refugees get in without any paperwork.
Is Saudi Arabia Exaggerating Its Oil Production Potential? - Oil Price.
"Russian oil exports: before and after" - Twitter.
Sir Lanka received 3,585M SDRs from the IMF, which is equivalent to $4,768M (SDR). Sri Lanka's GDP (Gross Domestic Product) was $80,710M in 2020 (Trading Economics). So the IMF bail-outs are only 5.9% of GDP.
From 2 Sep 2020: The World Population in 2100, by Country - Visual Capitalist.
Germany's import and exports were matched until 2000. After 2000 there were more capital outflow, presumably because the Euro area didn't provide a real return on savings, and/or big goverment limited private sector investment opportunities.
Sunday 3 July 2022
The Euro Area GDP (Gross Domestic Product) relative to money supply shows a similar decline to the US (below). It is almost half of what it was in 1995. It usually means an increase in money supply created inflation, wages didn't keep up, and the population became poorer. Most people are dependent on government for work or pensions, and have no control over raises. An increase in socialism would lead to lower economic output, and therefore the real standard of living would decline. Also the cheap Chinese labour for the last two decades put pressure on labour in the rest of the world.
A historic chart of Euro area government spending to GDP shows a long term increase: The Global Economy, but their chart says 22.58% in 2020, whilst the EU's own statistic service says Euro area government expenditure to GDP was 52.4% in 2021: Eurostat. Revenue is mostly insufficient to pay for the expenses.
Saturday 2 July 2022
On the interweb people are discussing small changes in US economic growth. The increase in money supply that causes the massive drop in velocity below precedes the inflation that causes economic decline. If you smooth out the sudden falls, you get real economic growth. After the fall in 2001 and 2008, the economy only recovered partially. So far since the collapse in 2020, there isn't even a sign of a recovery. This is what happens when money or benefits are handed out without an incentive to produce more.
The big elephant in the room is US debt. From 1981 to 2009 debt increased without an equivalent increase in economic output (blue). Since 2009 the debt growth slowed, whilst more money was created (red). The peasants have to lower their standard of living to pay off the debt through inflation. In most countries money supply equals debt, which is a ratio of 1 for the red line. The Federal Reserve (FOMC) can't stop inflation, because that is necessary to reduce the real value of the debt. Real economic growth must continue to decline.
Companies will handle lower volume, and increase prices to maintain profits. The nominal value of profits (blue) appears to have shot up, but relative to money supply and inflation (red) it is declining. It is at an average value now, but could take another -30% dip.
Friday 1 July 2022
Fed Chair Powell Will Ensure Inflation Is Here to Stay. - Youtube.
Texas officials respond to Biden Administration's termination of Remain-In-Mexico Policy - Youtube.
Stellantis Says EU's 2035 Combustion Engine Ban Means Auto Industry Is "Doomed" Unless EVs Get Cheaper - Zero Hedge. China has cheap electric cars, but can apparently not be imported, or are too slow for highways.
"HOW?!?" - Pee-wee Herman, Twitter.
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