Tuesday 31 Dec 2019
Cow vocalization research described as 'Google-translate for cows' - Modern Farmer. Still not as bizarre as the fact that humans drink cow's milk.
On Twitter: zerohedge @zerohedge: "AAPL price vs earnings": chart.
According to the inflation adjusted S&P 500 Index - 90 Year Historical Chart - Macro Trends, the peak of Sep 1929 was only reached again by Dec 1958, a period of 29 years. Then it had 10 years of growth to make a new peak in Jan 1969. The next recovery took 23 years up to Feb 1992. The market grew for 8 years to reach a peak in Aug 2000. Returning to the peak took more than 14 years by Feb 2015. The market has now grown for 5 years. The market has spent much longer periods recovering from peaks than growing to new highs. For at least a decade official inflation statistics have not been reliable, which is why the recovery periods appear shorter.
On Twitter: Squawk Box @SquawkCNBC: "The Phase One deal has "great stuff in it," says White House trade adviser Peter Navarro, detailing some of its aspects ...." For the US to export more to China, it either has to import more (from anywhere) or reduce exports to other countries. Usually what happens when imports increase, some local manufacturers complain, and then governments interfere further into free trade.
On Twitter: Investing.com @Investingcom: "European equities are on track to post their best year since 2008. Here's the year-to-date performance." senspdf. Such high growth rates are not sustainable.
50 Numbers From 2019 That Are Almost Too Crazy To Believe - Talk Markets.
If M2 money supply in red on the FRED chart below is used as inflation indicator (ignoring economic growth and velocity of money), then house prices in blue have not kept up, whilst the stock market in green has exceeded it. Wealth has been created in the stock market, and lost in fixed property.
Monday 30 Dec 2019
Ghosn says he escaped 'injustice' in Japan; Lebanon calls arrival a private matter - Reuters. Carlos The Jackal Ghosn has escaped.
You can buy ‘cheap’ in L.A. But you won’t own your home and may oust a renter - LA Times.
Ep. 523: Ringing in a Decade of Stagflation - Peter Schiff Podcast on Youtube.
Tesla Gigafactory 1: Panasonic ready to ramp up battery production to 54 GWh - Electrek.
The Fed could face a possible ‘inflation scare’ in 2020 with commodity prices on the rise - CNBC. Nothing wil push up the official inflation figure, because it is an imaginery number.
Asian shares down from 18-month top; oil steady after U.S. strikes - Reuters.
On Twitter: Financial Times @FinancialTimes: "Fake clicks on online ads costing companies ‘tens of billions’ a year". Internet users also click on ads by accident.
Tesla starts made-in-China Model 3 deliveries – opens the floodgates - Electrek. Tesla Gigafactory 3 in China contruction started December 2018, and one year later the delivery of cars begins. At lot of countries have duties on imported cars to protect local manufacture. Just because cars can be made cheaply in China, doesn't necessarily mean you will be able to buy them. Thank your government.
On Twitter: Financial Times @FinancialTimes: "More than £100m in sales has been wiped off the champagne market in the past few years as British partygoers have turned to cheaper sparkling options such as prosecco". A sign of inflation impacting living standards.
To ensure the massive amounts of food China will import doesn't go to waste, Trump will see to it that the Chinese are force fed. The Chinese will have soy sauce, soy burgers, soy turkey, tofu, soy milk, soy yoghurt, soybean sprouts, soy molasses, etc. During phase 2 the US and China willl hold a contest to see whose population is the fattest. Citizens will be encouraged to be as fat as their leader.
Sunday 29 Dec 2019
On Twitter: Diwani Babli 1.7K @LaadliBabli: "Dec 29. This video shot automatically from home installed camera shows New Zealand's White Island volcano eruption on 9 Dec 2019. Please wait for 24 seconds when nature's roar begins and most importantly......another 24 seconds after the blackout - completely lifeless.
Wrath of #nature!": video. Trump is investigating a possible link between the volcanic eruption and the photographer in terms of the US terrorism act of 19-voetsek.
On Twitter: M/I_Investments @MI_Investments: "Sure, @neelkashkari, bubbles are so hard to spot, you only need #Integrity #Ethics #Morality to spot them just like it's "difficult" for evil people to understand The Golden Rule. Fin'l Mkts didn't have $15T in QE, 0% rates, etc the prior two bubbles or US debt $10->$23T. DUH!": chart: Monetary Policy and Bubbles - Medium.
A 10% to 20% pullback could strike stocks early next year, long-time bull Ed Yardeni warns - CNBC. The stock market is going in one direction, whilst the economy is travelling on the opposite side of the road the other way.
Jim Rickards Warns That Tsunami Of Debt Could Upend The Economy - Zero Hedge. Governments are trying to inflate the debt away as fast as possible, but the debt just keeps growing to compensate for the inflation caused.
SPX: What's In Store For The 2020s And 2030s? - Talk Markets. Most of the rise in stock markets is due to inflation, with perhaps a little bit of economic growth if you are lucky. If the market goes sideways, you are losing money relative to inflation. The SPX/GDP chart at Trading View (click on All) shows the S&P 500 index is expensive like in 2000.
Cracks Are Showing On The Surface Of Once "Safe" Top Tier Malls - Talk Markets. Big difference with online shopping is that people usually only search for products they know of difficult to browse online to find new products you don't know exists.
What's This? Massive Fleet Of Idle Railcars - David Stockman's Contra Corner.
On Twitter: Brad Huston @BradHuston: "Replying to @michaellebowitz and @JackPScott, I think @neelkashkari's constant trolling of us speaks more of his fear that bearish investors will finally demonstrate to the public that the Fed has been at the root of wealth inequality all along, and that this public will then be on his front lawn."
China's alternative to GPS should be complete by mid-2020 - Engadget.
Birds laughing about long positions on the stock market: Kookaburra - YouTube.
From 30 Jul 2019: New Money: The Greatest Wealth Creation Event in History (2019) (China) - YouTube. Most of the growth is in the past.
On Twitter: Prof. Steve Hanke @steve_hanke: "The Money Supply, broadly measured by Divisia M4, is booming at 7.4%/yr. The US #Economy is buoyant. #Wages for lower-paid workers are increasing at a post-recession high. #Workers have many options & employers must pay up to retain their workers." On the FRED chart below wages in purple are lagging economic output in red. Over the last 10 years wages have grown 2.3% per year, compared to economic output of 3.9% per year. Both are losing out to M2 money supply in green as inflation indicator.
Saturday 28 Dec 2019
Here’s How Mastercard Sidesteps The U.S. Anti-Tech Campaign - Forbes. "However, last week Huawei noted that its newest Mate 30 smartphone did not have any U.S.-made components."
Billionaires’ wealth surged in 2019 - WSWS.
New WikiLeaks documents expose doctoring of chemical weapons report to justify 2018 US attack on Syria - WSWS.
Friday 27 Dec 2019
Abandoned - Sears - Youtube.
The World of Wine: Visualizing an Industry Ripe for Disruption - Visual Capitalist.
Russia becomes first nation with an operational hypersonic weapon - Futurism.
Fed study finds Trump tariffs backfired - Market Watch.
On Twitter: David Larew @ThinkTankCharts: "Put Call Ratio - All Bulls are winners. :) Con-sensus says the markets will never go down again. : chart. Knowing that asset appreciation contributes to inflation later on, a pro-active central bank would have increased interest rates.
Hong Kong beats Nasdaq to IPO crown as Alibaba, Budweiser mega listings lift funds raised to US$40 billion for 2019 - SCMP.
On Twitter: Tesla China @teslacn: "China-built Tesla Model 3 just got approval from China's industry ministry on purchase tax exemption. Delivery COMING SOON."
On Twitter: Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner: "In case you missed it: #Apple is up >80% in 2019 — its best year in a decade. Largest traded company added $530bn in market value this year, more than mkt cap of all but 5 comps in S&P 500 and twice the market value of Intel." Revenue was -2.0% lower for the year to Sep, and earnings per share was down -0.2% despite buying back 7.6% of shares. The earnings yield is now 4.1%, which means they can only buy back 3% after a 1% dividend. In the absence of growth, the earnings yield is too low for apparent US inflation of 5% to 7%.
Santa Barbara Has Officially Gotten Its Groove Back - Travel Leisure.
Forces from Earth's spin may spark earthquakes and volcanic eruptions at Mount Etna - Phys.org.
Carnival of Space 643 – Large Parts of Mars has Water 1-12 Inches from Surface - Next Big Future.
Volkswagen Delivered Its 250,000th Plug-In Electric Car - Inside EVs.
On Twitter: Travel + Leisure @TravelLeisure: "Virgin Atlantic will upgrade the oldest passenger on every flight for the rest of 2019". What if the passenger is already in first class? He will be moved to the cockpit to fly the plane. An air hostage will give a lapdance.
Euro Area M3 money supply in green on the FRED chart is much bigger, and growing much faster than the economic output in blue. It looks like inflation is worked out so as to show a little bit of real economic growth in red, whilst enormous amounts of money is actually being printed.
Thursday 26 Dec 2019
S&P 500 Buybacks & Dividends - Yardeni Research.
On Twitter: SentimenTrader @sentimentrader: "Over the past 38 sessions, Trump's stock market touts have averaged almost 1 per day. Gettin' close to that January 2018 bit of delirium." chart.
On Twitter: THE LONG VIEW @HayekAndKeynes: "Six asset managers control 92% of all ETF assets. The others—all 118 of them—are fighting over 8% of the assets. The top two, BlackRock and Vanguard, manage two out of every three ETF dollars in the U.S."
‘Star Wars: Rise of Skywalker’ rings up second-best Christmas box office ever - Market Watch.
Mortgage rates hold steady to close out 2019 — here’s what the next year may hold - Market Watch.
Indian IPOs Plunge To Four-Year Low Amid "Great Slowdown" - Zero Hedge.
On Twitter: YUAN TALKS @YuanTalks: "#China plans to invest 800 billion yuan in railway, 1.8 trillion yuan in highway and waterway and 90 billion yuan in civil aviation in 2020, said Li Xiaopeng, the country's Minister of Transport."
5 Must-Buy Top-Ranked Mid-Cap Stocks For 2020 - Talk Markets. "...which have skyrocketed in 2019 ..."
Health insurers and retail pharmacies are making a play for primary care - Market Watch.
Tesla patents new chemistry for better, longer-lasting and cheaper batteries - Electrek.
On Twitter: SCMP News @SCMPNews: "Sky watchers in Southeast Asia were treated to a “ring of fire”, a rare phenomenon known as an annular eclipse. https://sc.mp/zet6x": video.
Canada's Government-Owned CBC Deletes Trump Scene From Home Alone 2 Broadcast - Zero Hedge.
The Nasdaq index has reached 9000 points, shown in blue on the FRED chart below. After the previous big bubble of Feb 2000 it fell -75% to touch US economic output in red. To return to economic output it now has to fall the same -76% (on this arbitrary scale). Over the 48 year range of this chart one would expect for technology companies to have become a greater part of the economy, and therefore for the blue line to be above the red line. If the US president and the Federal Reserve guarantee that the stock market will only go higher, then workers should give up their day jobs, and put all their money in the stock market. Interest on debt is much lower than the stock market growth rate, so borrow the money.
On the FRED chart below the US consumer may be "strong", but not as wealthy as stock market investors.
The FRED chart below shows US total vehicle sales. Not much growth over decades. Is the new generation too poor to afford a car?
Wednesday 25 Dec 2019
On Twitter: J.C. Parets @allstarcharts: "Does this look like the end of an old bull market, or the start of a new one? $SXXP" chart. No growth for almost 20 years thanks to socialism.
On Twitter: Otavio (Tavi) Costa @TaviCosta: "Energy service stocks never looked so cheap. Price to sales ratio now below times that preceded major bottoms. One of the few industries trading at 1x annual revenues. Commodities are historically undervalued, plenty value to be found.": chart.
Russia to counter Washington’s pressure on Nord Stream 2 via close cooperation with Europe - RT. "Russian gas will be 30 percent cheaper for Europe than American LNG (liquefied natural gas)"
Every new year the question of a stock market crash comes up. Stock Market Crashes Throughout History & What We Can Learn - Rule One Investing. The 1929 market crash lasted 3 years: Dow Jones - 1929 Crash and Bear Market - Macrotrends. Over 3 years the Dow Jones fell -89%. Governments are now creating more and more money to prevent a collapse. The result is that stock markets do not necessarily collapse, but do not beat the actual inflation rate. Some shares need to fall 50% to give a yield comparable to inflation. Bonds are ridiculously overpriced.
4 Stock Market Crash Tips From Peter Lynch - Talk Markets.
All I Want For Christmas Is An Unmanipulated Market - Talk Markets.
The New Spending Bill Is A Disaster - Talk Markets. The US and EU look more and more like third world countries government spending which will be paid for by printing money, more socialism (e.g. distribution of wealth through health care), bigger and more interfering government (deciding which goods should be traded).
Beijing-Shanghai High-speed Railway cuts IPO size but is still on track for China’s biggest offering since 2015 - SCMP.
From 24 Feb 2017: The rise of the useless class - Ideas.ted. Humans being left behind by technological development is happening already. People do low paying service jobs. To win votes, politicians create redundant jobs, like through military spending.
On Twitter: Quartz @qz: "China has already started to buy US soybeans again". It is seasonal. October and November are the big months for US exports of soybeans: Forbes. Back in Sept: China exempts US soybeans and pork from tariffs - CNN.
Tuesday 24 Dec 2019
On Twitter: Eric Pomboy @epomboy: "World Industrial Production posts first negative y/y print since the recession as World Trade Volume posts 5th straight month of negative y/y readings and lowest since the recession (October data)" chart.
The Wealth Redistribution Scam that Is "Inflation" - Mises Institute.
Streaming won't get easier or cheaper - Engadget. The content lacks innovation. Every broadcaster produces the same type of programs.
On Twitter: TraderFerg @ferg_trader: "Replying to @ferg_trader. As everywhere you look inflation is creeping up. I don't know how this chart didn't get more air time. I mean seriously 5% YoY inflation in Walmart and Target and we are still told inflation is dead."graph.
BYD Sold Over 1,000 Buses In Latin America - InsideEVs
California bans per-minute billing; Tesla Superchargers will need displays - Electrek.
US policy on North Korea ‘failing’ amid growing tension, says John Bolton - SCMP.
Op Twitter: Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner: "Ouch! Italians are poorer today than before the introduction of the euro. It is the only major economy in the euro zone where per capita personal disposable income is below the 1998 level. (Chart via @TS_Lombard)": graph.
Half of U.S. workers say they didn’t get a raise this year — that’s the good news - Market Watch.
Jill Biden Hands Out Tamales, Christmas Gifts at Mexico Border Camp, Reaction Was NOT What She Expected - 24 News.
Want to Stop Poaching? Build a Smart Park - Forbes.
The higher stock markets rise, the further they have to fall to return to economic output. Otherwise wealth created on the stock market must be paid for by workers through inflation. It is now a drop of about 66%.
Truck tonnage (whatever that is) has lagged behind the rest of the economy if the year 2000 is used as starting point:
Monday 23 Dec 2019
Macy’s, Gap And L Brands Rank Among Worst Retail Stocks Of 2019 - Forbes.
Market And Investing Wisdoms For 2020 - RIA.
As stock indexes hit record heights, Guggenheim’s Minerd says we’re near a ‘Minsky moment’ and ‘silly season in risk assets’ - Market Watch.
Opinion: Three things that could spark the crisis of 2020 - Market Watch.
Donald Trump Doesn’t Seem to Know Anything About Wind Power - Futurism. "But for comparison, collisions with glass buildings — like the ones Trump has made a career stamping his name on — kill 599,000,000 birds every year."
Tesla releases massive new update with text message reading, Autopilot, and more - Electrek. Tesla might have an advantage over other car manufacturers, in that people associate traditional car brands with fossil fuel. In the future fossil fuel cars could be viewed as old cars.
GM pushes feds to approve Chevy Bolts with no steering wheel - Electrek.
Fed May Be Quietly Masking Extent of Efforts to Calm Repo Market - Yahoo Finance.
Peter Schiff: The Most Reckless Combination Of Monetary And Fiscal Policy In History - Zero Hedge.
If stock markets rise 37% every year, they will be up 23x in 10 year, or 47,000,000,000,000x in 100 years. Incredible, what great wealth will be created. Nobody needs to work anymore, take early retirement.
On Twitter: 361 Capital @361Capital: "Lg Cap All-Time Highs hit 47 stocks today with and Tech, Healthcare and Leisure (Hotels/Food Services) leading the way…": table. Apple's (AAPL) market cap works out to $3760 for every adult and child in the US. How much do these smartphones cost?
On Twitter: Martin Hägg @martinhgg1: "Look at this, massive insider selling continues with Kimbal Musk cutting his position by 32% in november, selling stock for ~22 million USD. Hard to think that this stock is a bargain here.": table.
Inside Comcast’s Peacock Streaming Strategy - Market Realist.
Economists Wrong On Durable Goods By An Amazing 3.9 Percentage Points - Talk Markets.
Making A Fortune: 19 Million Public Employees Across America Cost Taxpayers Nearly $1 Trillion - Zero Hedge.
On Twitter: St. Louis Fed @stlouisfed: "How have U.S.-China tariffs impacted the U.S. trading with other nations, such as Taiwan and Vietnam?" U.S.-China Trade War: Shifting to Importing from Other Nations: graph.
On Twitter: Jonathan Ford @Grepsul: "In 2 years out of the past 4, FTSE100 companies paid more in divis/buybacks than they made in net profits. It’s ever harder to understand the accounts that let them to make these distributions. My bit on the opportunity missed by Brydon’s audit review" link.
On Twitter: Otavio (Tavi) Costa @TaviCostaL: "Why bother buying junk? High-yield bonds (ex-energy) only yield 180 bps above inflation. Lowest level in history! Completely unsustainable and poised to revert. Most of these businesses can’t even survive in a high cost of capital environment. http://crescat.net/running-hot/": chart.
Boeing's Starliner passenger rocket missed its target. They think it may have come down somewhere in the South Pacific. Chances are it landed on Gilligan's Island. The marooned crew and passengers of the Minnow are trying to launch it at his moment.
Sunday 22 Dec 2019
The US and China have a trade deal, but only Washington has what it wants - SCMP. Trump is trying to sell goods that are more expensive than from competitors. If US agricultural exports were price competitive it would have sold. By restriction imports, all he achieves is to reduce US overall trade.
A group of YouTubers staged a jaw-dropping blue foam volcano in their backyard that toppled over their balcony and towered above their house - Business Insider SA.
Steven Mnuchin Explains Why $1.5 Trillion In $100 Bills Have Disappeared - Zero Hedge. That could be one reason why money flow is slowing down despite an increase in supply. Considering the apparent US inflation rate, holding notes is definitely not a good investment. Regulations on financial transactions to combat money laundering could have resulted in more cash transactions.
What Goes In To The US Current Account Deficit? - Talk Markets.
Three people sentenced for running $100 million malware crime network - Engadget.
A Funny Thing Happened As The Fed Cut Rates: Credit Card Rates Hit All Time Highs - Zero Hedge. Credit card companies are doing well due to a lack of competition.
Here's what you're not getting for Christmas in 2019 - New Atlas.
Saturday 21 Dec 2019
On Twitter: ISABELNET @ISABELNET_SA: "Short Interest. Investors are excessively bullish. Short interest on the largest S&P 500 ETF is at the lowest since October 2018": chart.
On Twitter: ISABELNET @ISABELNET_SA: "US Heavy Trucks Sales Declined in November to 462K. Before recessions and bear markets, heavy truck sales peak and then decline. Is the uptrend broken?": chart.
2020: The Futility Of Predictions & Understanding The Risk - RIA.
On Twitter: Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner: "S&P 500 close at record highs also driven by Fed’s balance sheet expansion. Fed’s total assets rose by another $41.5bn, most since Oct on liquidity injection." chart.
On Twitter: Massimo @Rainmaker1973: "Geneva operates a fleet of demonstrators 100% electric buses powered by a car-sized battery recharged for 15 seconds in 400kw stations [more about the TOSA concept and test bus": TOSA (bus).
China says Justin Trudeau wasting time asking for Trump’s help on Canadian detainees - SCMP.
Racist anti-Asian assaults in France spark fear, condemnation - SCMP. The world is divided into 200 countries because people want to live with their own kind. In multi-ethnic populations one group grows larger and suppresses the minority groups.
Rental properties are a ‘terrible investment,’ says fintech company with $22 billion in assets under management - Market watch.
The FRED chart shows US total debt multiplied by interest rates adjusted for inflation. It is an indication of the cost of debt. It shows big swings resulting in recessions as the grey bands. It forms an expanding or broadening triangle pattern (in engineering it is an oscillation running out of control). To continue the pattern, debt (and inflation) would blow up, and the Federal Reserwe would be forced to suppress it by raising interest rates, although it could first spend time midrange.
Friday 20 Dec 2019
Opinion: Shop like an investor and save yourself a lot of money — and drama — this holiday season - Market Watch.
This Week in Earnings 19Q3 | Dec. 20 - Lipper Alpha Insight. Third quarter revenue growth was +3.8%, and earnings declined -0.4%. It is typically a sign of high inflation putting pressure on costs. At constant volume, sales inflation was 3.8% and with a net profit margin of say 10% cost inflation was 4.7%. If volume declined, as is usually the case when consumers are under pressure, inflation is higher.
Trump admin blocks expanded rules against inefficient lightbulbs - Engadget. Some light bulbs are only switched on for a few minutes. In that case it makes sense to use the cheapest bulb.
Schiff On 'The Bubble': "It's Only A Matter Of Time Before The Whole Thing Implodes" - Zero Hedge.
On Twitter: Liz Ann Sonders @LizAnnSonders: "Q3 GDP unchanged at 2.1% … stronger consumption but weaker gross private investment & corporate profits". It is low official inflation giving the impression of economic growth. It is the season to say: If you believe the official inflation rate, then you must also believe in Santa Clause.
On Twitter: Gregory Daco @GregDaco: "US corporate #profits fell $4.7bn in Q3, following +$75.8bn in Q2, driven by domestic nonfinancial corporate profits & profits from abroad: 3rd contraction in last 4 Qs. Profits -1.2% y/y w/ margins still compressed at 9.6% of GDP – having declined nearly continuously for 5 yrs. chart.
Why The "Phase One" Trade Deal Is Impossible, In One Chart - Zero Hedge.
Supreme court ruling knocks down Pelosi's impeachment demands/ - Infowars.
Thursday 19 Dec 2019
Undocumented immigrants will be able to get N.J. drivers licenses as Murphy signs new law - NJ. Murphy's law. The US has apparently become lawless, all the way to the top with a bribing president.
German court bans Uber's ride-hailing services in Germany - Reuters.
Second quarter results - Nike
On Twitter: Late Night with Seth Meyers @LateNightSeth: "Can’t believe it took this long for Trump to get impeached". Major drawback to the US political system is that it is difficult to fire the president. When parliament chooses the president or prime minister, it is their responsibility from the start. In practice however, members of parliament are party puppets, and subordinate to the party leadership.
On Twitter: Kyle Bass @Jkylebass: "The FED's gauge of INFLATION is a JOKE on the US population. The BLS shows that avg car prices are up 35% since 1980 (39 years). In 1982, the average car price in the US was $7,000. In 2019, its $37,185. The REAL INFLATION number is +500% or more on cars. https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SETA02?output_view=data"
On Twitter: zerohedge @zerohedge: "In 2018, Robinhood brought in more than 40% of its revenue in early 2018 from selling its customers’ orders to high-frequency trading firms, or market makers. Your "free" orders allow HFT funds to frontrun all your trades."
On Twitter: MarketWatch @MarketWatch: "In annual news conference, Putin declares Trump impeachment ‘absolutely far-fetched’ ". From one dictator to another would-be dictator. It would be unusual for members of parliament in other countries to support a corrupt president or prime minister. The support Trump receives from the Republican Party shows US politicians have no moral values, and do whatever looks like to best strategy to keep their jobs.
Micron Rises as CEO Calls the 'Bottom' in Memory Chip Demand - The Street. Micron Technology (MU) traded at low valuations for a long time, then the share price rose as sales and profits fell. After Trump threatened to cut China off from semiconductor supplies, China moved towards developing its own. From 4 Jun 2019: China is ramping up its own chip industry amid a brewing tech war. That could hurt US firms - CNBC. From 19 Nov 2019: How China plans to lead the computer chip industry - BBC. "But it has plans to produce 40% of all semiconductors it uses by 2020, and 70% by 2025, an ambitious plan spurred by the trade war with the US." Another US industry destroyed by Trump.
On Twitter: SCMP News @SCMPNews: "Travelling from Xinjiang to Tibei by rail in China's northwest is now 10 hours faster": video. This is a sign that a country is developing, as opposed to the news from some other countries.
Queen’s Speech focuses on Brexit and public services (subscription) - Financial Times. The queen said she won't be partying like last year.
Airbnb wins fight to remain exempt from European property rules - Reuters.
Facebook is building an operating system so it can ditch Android - TechCrunch.
Piaggio’s latest EV isn’t a sexy Vespa, it’s an electric tuk-tuk - Electrek. It is similar to a road legal golf cart.
It is curious that US money supply velocity has slowed so much since 2009, resulting in low economic growth and low official inflation. According to the St Louis Fed blog What Does Money Velocity Tell Us about Low Inflation in the U.S.?: "The answer lies in the private sector’s dramatic increase in their willingness to hoard money instead of spend it". The problem is you cannot actually hoard money unless you do it as notes stored in a vault. If you deposit the money with a bank, the bank lends it out to generate interest income, so some-one else will continue to spend it.
With all the modern electronic payment using smartphones you would think that money would circulate faster. Property transactions are much slower. It is possible that cash in broker accounts keeps circulating between speculators as some are buying when others are selling. Due to the short term nature of the cash, it is not lent out to the rest of the economy, and therefore produces no economic output. Then the extra money supply has gone into stock market bubbles.
Debt has grown much faster than the money supply, which is also curious because every loan should be matched by a bank deposit, which is counted as part of the money supply. Therefore, a lot of debt does not come from deposit taking institutions. Perhaps it is the public buying bonds, or retailers allowing customers to buy goods using store credit.
Wednesday 18 Dec 2019
U.S. economy on good path with rates on hold, Fed policymakers say - Reuters. A good path for those who are protected against the rampant inflation.
Divided U.S. House impeaches Donald Trump in historic vote - Reuters.
On Twitter: Dr. Jack Rasmus @drjackrasmus: "#taxcuts With US budget deficit set to exceed $1 trillion ($209b in November alone), Congress just voted to give special interests another $427 billion cut: i.e. brewers, winemakers, racehorse owners, health insurers, parking lot owners, etc. Add that to $4T in 2017-18 tax cuts." Realizing that responsible businesses and consumers do not borrow more than they can afford, the government is borrowing on their behalf, to keep the economy and voter support going.
On Twitter: Charlie Bilello @charliebilello: "At its peak in September 2018, Tilray was 1,665% above its July 2018 IPO Price. Today: new all-time low, 2% above its IPO price. $TLRY": chart.
U.S. Lawmakers Pass “Sanctions Bill From Hell” To Punish Russia - Oil Price.
The ‘ultimate smart money indicator’ is signalling a big move in the stock market by the end of the week - Market Watch.
Thanks, Donald! Winning Trade Wars Is SOOOO Easy! - David Stockman's Contra Corner.
DIPLE Microscope for 35X-1000X and Other Smartphone Devices - Next Big Future.
On Twitter: Prof. Steve Hanke @steve_hanke: "#Iranians continue to struggle to meet basic needs. And with annual #inflation in Iran, by my measure, at 29.79%/yr, their struggles are becoming harder with each passing day.": chart.
Why Are Global EV Sales Slowing? - Oil Price.
Meet the goats that saved Ronald Reagan presidential library from wildfires - Modern Farmer.
On Twitter: Tulsi Gabbard @TulsiGabbard: "We must not continue wasting trillions on regime change wars, the new Cold War & nuclear arms race. Our precious resources must be used for the needs of the American ppl. It’s time to stand up for quality affordable healthcare, education, environmental protection & more. Join me." Military spending does not directly contribute to a higher standard of living. Infrastructure can if it contributes to economic activity.
On Twitter: Liz Ann Sonders @LizAnnSonders: "Cos continue to return capital to shareholders: S&P annual indicated dividend rate reached $500b for 1st time yesterday, with 4Q19 cash dividends set to post new Q’ly record; buybacks also held strong, w/ companies repurchasing $176b in 3Q19 (up, but lower than 3Q18)
On Twitter: Squawk Box @SquawkCNBC: 'The Dems "believe @realDonaldTrump is going to win in 2020 and they are just trying to rush this through to try to impact this election or maybe take him out because they are scared to death," says @SenRickScott on #impeachment'. It is difficult for foreigners to understand how the Republican Party can still have supporters, but then again the public supports bad government in other countries. The average voter is an idiot.
What We Are Not Being Told About The Trade Deal - RIA. China might be thinking they are dealing with some-one very unstable, and is just trying to appease him with vague promises.
On Twitter: ISABELNET @ISABELNET_SA: "State & Private Enterprise Default Rate in China. The default rate for private Chinese companies has reached a record high at 4.9% vs. 0.6% in 2014 https://isabelnet.com/?s=China h/t @FT #markets #China #risks #investing #investments #stocks #companies".
DIY Ski Latch On Tesla Model 3 Reveals Rust In The Seats - Inside EVs.
Why Is Best Buy Stock Trading at a Record High? - Market Realist. They have had no revenue growth for more than a decade, so you would only hold it for the dividend and share buyback, which is limited to an earnings yield of 6.4%.
Australia just recorded its hottest day in history, capping a year of extreme temperatures around the world - Business Insider SA.
On Twitter: wHyZgUy @_WhyzGuy_: "I'm the Captain now": video.
Tuesday 17 Dec 2019
On Twitter: HowMuch.net @howmuch_net: "China’s economy has grown 14.12 times in size since 1989. Do you think China’s economic growth has been a positive thing for the world? Share this article and let your friends know. https://howmuch.net/articles/chinas-economic-growth-perspective via @howmuch_net": chart. China has made a lot of products more affordable, which before were only available from developed countries at much higher prices due to import restrictions and subsidies, which was a form of exploitation.
On Twitter: Maria Bartiromo @MariaBartiromo: 'Breakin: @POTUS @realDonaldTrump sends a letter to @SpeakerPelosi asking for last chance to stop this #ImpeachmentHoax saying "i am voicing my strongest & most powerful protest against this partisan impeachment crusade." @MorningsMaria @FoxBusiness "UR violating oath office". Threatening democracy like a dictator is not helping his cause.
Fiat Chrysler, Peugeot owner PSA agree binding merger in $50 billion deal - Reuters. From 31 Oct: Fiat Chrysler and Peugeot owner announce $48 billion merger - CNN.
Don’t Chase Yield - Talk Markets. In most countries today there is no asset class that will beat the actual (unofficial) inflation rate. This is always the case in high inflation countries like Zimbabwe or Venezuela, where the government restricts capital outflow.
Amazon blocks sellers from using FedEx Ground for Prime shipments - Market Watch.
It's That Time Again: Let's Revisit & Debunk Common EV Myths - InsideEVs.
Unilever Shares Plunge After Sales Growth Forecast Lowered - Talk Markets.
On Twitter: Liz Ann Sonders @LizAnnSonders: "Economists question the US' ability to ramp up exports to China to levels that are in "interim" deal; China (supposedly) agreed to buy $200 billion of US goods over next 2 years, above what it imported in 2017; this seems implausible @scotiabank @SoberLook" graph.
On Twitter: (((The Daily Shot))) @SoberLook: "Chart(@IHSMarkitPMI): Eurozone factories shedding jobs at the fastest pace since 2012": chart.
On Twitter: David Ingles @DavidInglesTV: "Chinese stocks breaking out and maybe breaking free of this range.": chart.
On Twitter: Snippet Finance @SnippetFinance: "Wealth Distribution in the US. https://snippet.finance/wealth-distribution/": chart.
On Twitter: SCMP News @SCMPNews: "One kilogram of this Chinese company's caviar is worth more than US$25,000. Last year, it produced 86 tonnes". Wikipedia: "China has emerged as the leading producer, accounting for 60% of the world production in caviar."
The US and EU are trying to prevent another Great Depression by increasing debt to cover rising costs due to inflation, which is caused by the increasing debt. The belief is that the Great Depression was caused "By not lowering interest rates, by not increasing the monetary base and by not injecting liquidity into the banking system to prevent it from crumbling" - Wikipedia. The stock market bubble up to 1929 would have contributed to inflation, which had to be corrected by a subsequent recession/depression. The same applies to the present stock market bubble. The result of asset bubbles is the same as in 1929, except everything is now riding on top of inflation. The public is becoming poorer but do not realize it because they don't know what the actual inflation rate is. Meanwhile, the bubble is made worse with lower and lower interest rates.
On the FRED chart below US exports has declined as percentage of economic output since Q2 2018, and before that from Q2 2014 to Q1 2016, which corresponds to a period of economic weakness (and it has fallen through the neckline of a head-and-shoulders pattern).
Monday 16 Dec 2019
On Twitter: Daniel Lacalle @dlacalle_IA: "Government spending on entitlements is at all-time highs globally" chart. Bribes paid to voters, just like Zimbabwe en Venezuela.
Gold Stocks Vs Gold – Not A Good Bet - Talk Markets.
Asthma severity linked to microbiome of upper airway - Medical Express.
On Twitter: GK Austin @GK_Austin: "Replying to @MI_Investments and @RudyHavenstein. Lower rates are helping families? Is he serious? Interest rates are sky high for low-income families (i.e., credit card annual interest at 26%), US wage growth flat since 1982. If the FED cared about low-income families, they would loan directly to them instead of banks." chart.
On Twitter: zerohedge @zerohedge: "AAPL up 96% since cutting guidance on Jan 3, and after buying back over $100BN in stock".
According to the FRED chart below real US exports in red has increased the last 10 years. Relative to the M2 money supply in blue it has declined. Money supply seems to be closer to the actual inflation rate. The strong US dollar has made exports more expensive, and so one would expect for it to decline.
Sunday 15 Dec 2019
My “Pickup Truck Price Index” Crushes “CPI for New Vehicles” - Wolf Street.
The US-China trade deal leaves a large American deficit and a permanent collision course - CNBC.
On Twitter: Not Jim Cramer @Not_Jim_Cramer: "S&P 500 Forward PEG Ratio. So we got that goin' for us. Which is nice.": S&P 500 Index Forward PEG Ratio.
Mexico trade negotiator: We’ll never accept US ‘inspectors’ - AP News.
Thai opposition warns of more street protests after thousands ‘stand up and fight’ at Bangkok rally - SCMP.
On Twitter: Boris Johnson @BorisJohnson: "Let's unite this country, let's spread opportunity to every corner of the UK, with superb education, superb infrastructure, and technology. Let's get this done and move forward." One reason why Europe has lagged the US technological advancement and economic development is that the Europeans with ambition emigrated. The people who stayed behind were the lazy socialists.
China threatens Germany with retaliation if Huawei is banned - Tech Central.
Computer programmers plead guilty to operating popular illegal streaming service sites - Fox Business.
Saturday 14 Dec 2019
Do the numbers in Donald Trump’s ‘phase one’ trade deal work? US critics worry they don’t - SCMP.
Bubbles Are Brutal - Zero Hedge.
On Twitter: zerohedge @zerohedge: "China temporarily suspends additional tariffs of either 10% or 5% on certain US goods scheduled to take effect on Dec 15: Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council".
Why Trade Wars Don’t Work - Talk Markets. Trump's import tariffs and higher exports are contradictory. Import restrictions strengthen the dollar, until there is a similar drop in exports.
17 Crazy Stats That Will Help You Understand The Streaming Wars - Talk Markets. Ultimately people only want to pay for the programs they want to see.
Apple’s Massive Stock Price Run-Up In 2019: Future Implications - Talk Markets. "Year to date Apple’s stock price has risen approximately 70%." That doesn't make sense.
Stellar Year For Stocks Now Suggests Strong Follow-Through In 2020 - Talk Markets. The only thing that is going up is inflation. Governments try to create economic growth by increasing the money supply, which mostly creates inflation. What little if any economic growth there is, is because wages do not keep up with inflation. We don't know what year stock markets are going to collapse. It could be 2020.
Friday 13 Dec 2019
The Cyclicality of the Aging U.S. Motor Vehicle Fleet - Federal Reserve St Louis.
On Twitter: Bernie Sanders @BernieSanders: "What would canceling all student debt mean for you and your family?" It would mean higher inflation because some-one has to pay for it.
On Twitter: Zach Abraham @KYRRadio: "$AAPL now trading at +22 PE ratio, richest valuation of past decade. Meanwhile, revenue growth is now contraction, their market share in phones has essentially been cut in half and the most innovative product they've launched in 5 years is headphones".
The American Retirement Nightmare - Pension Pulse.
Jim Cramer: Costco Just Keeps Delivering - Real Money. Costco's Numbers Weren't as Strong as They Looked - Real Money. "You have reached your free article limit."
GOP, Dems call for probe of hundreds of pardons issued by ex-Kentucky Gov. Bevin - Fox News.
Confused What's In The "Phase One" Deal? The USTR Explains - Zero Hedge. What country in the world will buy goods that are more expensive than elsewhere just because another country insists on it? If the EU imposed import tariffs on US goods, to force the US to buy more of its products even though it is more expensive, would the US do it?
On Twitter: Edward Lawrence @EdwardLawrence: "Chinese say the deal is in 9 chapters.. it deals with protections for intellectual property, but also the forced transfer of technology. The US Trade Representative says there is a dispute mechanism in the Phase One deal. #CHina #Trade". Is Trump suggesting China must recognize US patents, because companies didn't bother to apply for patents in China (Patent law in China - Wikipedia)? How can US companies manufacture in China if they don't transfer technology?
Can the US president be charged with share price manipulation? The big China trade deal just means import tariff wil not be increased as planned, in return for some commitments from China, which does not make sense. US imports into China are probably low because US exports are too expensive. The US will first need to import more, until the US dollar weakens, and exports become more price competitive. US import tariffs are paid by the US public, strengthens the dollar, and makes US exports less attractive. Trump thinks he can go against economic principle.
On Twitter: Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump: "The Do Nothing Democrats have become the Party of lies and deception! The Republicans are the Party of the American Dream!" What is more shocking than the poor character of the US president, and his inability to recognise his own corrupt behaviour, is the public support he still has.
On Twitter: (((The Daily Shot))) @SoberLook: 'The Fed has now bought about half of the Treasury securities it shed during the "balance sheet normalization." '
On Twitter: Hu Xijin ... @HuXijin_GT: "Chinese authorities and official media so far haven’t given any information on China and the US are close to a deal. As the US side released optimistic information through various channels, the Chinse side has basically kept silent. This is a delicate situation."
UK General Election: All the latest updates - Aljazeera. The country that led a world-wide campaign against apartheid in South Africa can now finally separate from the other white people in Europe. The strength of the pound doesn't make sense, except for the relative rate at which US money supply is growing. The UK economy is weakening because immigrants from the continent are leaving.
The Short Shorts Historian @TeslaHistorian: "Can't wait to see the Tesla Semi deliver Cybertrucks like this": photo.
Thursday 12 Dec 2019
Alasdair Macleod – The World Is Sleepwalking Into A Depression That Will Collapse Currencies Across The Globe - King World News. Inflation is the way the huge debt is written off. The debt is basically passed on until the workers who have no pricing power pay for it. Governments create the impression that they benefit people by borrowing instead of collecting taxes.
On Twitter: Prof. Steve Hanke @steve_hanke: "Economics made simple: diagram. Dinger @JimAllmendinger: "Replying to @steve_hanke. Fixed it: diagram.
On Twitter: zerohedge @zerohedge: "In exchange for cutting tariffs in half and not launching new tariffs on Dec 15, Trump got a unenforceable "promise" that China may - at some point in the future - buy more agricultural products".
Adobe fourth quarter and annual results. The P/E ratio is $305.96/$6.00 = 51.
On Twitter: The Insider Trader @AlessioUrban: "The funny thing of this bullshit is that china always says nothing". Who wants to make a deal with Trump?
Even DOL Puzzled After Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Soar Most In Over Two Years - Zero Hedge.
On Twitter: Jim Cramer @jimcramer: "Thank you Steve Bannon for acknowledging my "walk away" position on China--economy is strong enough to walk away... and win!" Most of the US economic growth for the past decades has come from the exploitation of cheap labour in other countries. You can see this from the low inflation on imported products, and the high inflation on local services.
On Twitter: TraderFerg @ferg_trader: "Replying to @treehcapital and @hkuppy I only found out about shrinkflation a few months ago thanks to @DrPippaM book Signals. Govt & Corps certainly doing everything possible to hide inflation.": image.
November iPhone sales dropped in China - Credit Suisse - Seeking Alpha.
Scientists find cheaper way to make hydrogen energy out of water - Phys.org.
On Twitter: Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump: "Getting VERY close to a BIG DEAL with China. They want it, and so do we!" Trump never mentions what he will buy from China in return for their US imports. It is impossible to increase trade in one direction without displacing other US exports (likely more profitable), and China cutting their imports from elsewhere (likely cheaper).
On Twitter: zerohedge @zerohedge: "Trump not removing tariffs, but cutting rates on existing ones. China demanded fulil removal. U.S. NEGOTIATORS OFFER TO CUT EXISTING TARIFF RATES BY UP TO 50% ON $360 BILLION OF CHINESE IMPORTS - WSJ"
On Twitter: Aaron Rupar @atrupar: "President Trump has posted 66 (!) tweets or retweets already this morning. It is not even 9 a.m. DC time."
Wednesday 11 Dec 2019
On Twitter: ISABELNET @ISABELNET_SA: "Corporate Profits vs. S&P 500 EPS. The current divergence between large-cap profits & the rest of the economy is the widest on record https://isabelnet.com/?s=profit. h/t @BofAML #markets #profits #bubble #corporateprofits #investing #economics #profitmargin $spx #spx $spy #SP500": chart.
Apple's China headache worsens as court bans iPhone sales in Qualcomm patent dispute - South China Morning Post.
When It Becomes Serious You Have To Lie: Update On The Repo Fiasco - RIA.
Budget Deficit Soars To $342 Billion In First Two Months Of FY 2020 - David Stockman's Contra Corner.
Wall Street expects bull run to continue in 2020 - Financial Times. It is obvious the US economy is weakening, due to high inflation.
7 questions to ask before starting your van life - Market Watch.
Aramco to become world's largest listed company -bourse - Reuters. On Twitter: zerohedge @zerohedge: "Aramco's market cap increase today is greater than the entire market cap of 470 S&P500 companies".
Chevron Slips on Announced $11 Billion Shale-Gas Writedown - The Street.
On Twitter: Kathy Jones @KathyJones: "It's Fed day! CPI was in line with forecasts holding in at 2.1% overall and 2.3% core. Real earnings up 1.1% yr/yr. It all spells modest growth/low inflation/steady Fed policy." Inflation appears to be 5 to 7%, although the MZM money supply is now growing at 12%. Therefore real earnings is declining.
On Twitter: The Hill @thehill: President Trump: "Our air and our water are cleaner now than it's ever been with all that we're doing." ....
.... Mike Bloomberg @MikeBloomberg: "Trump ended rules that keep toxic chemicals out of our air and water - now he falsely claims credit for keeping them clean. That's like going bankrupt six times and calling yourself a successful businessman."
On Twitter: Heather Long @byHeatherLong: "Crazy — health insurance costs in the USA are up 20.2% in the past year, according to CPI data out this morning. h/t @pboockvar": image.
Tuesday 10 Dec 2019
Alzheimer's drug candidates reverse broader aging, study shows - Science Daily.
McConnell: Senate will not take up new NAFTA deal this year - The Hill.
On Twitter: Greg S. @GS_CapSF: "In case people are wondering the state of CA housing, $TOL is struggling to sell more homes & in order to clear inventory ASPs are down -5.3%, backlog down-4.8% & backlog ASPs down -7.3%. Cancellations at 8.9%. Result is EBIT margin down -430bps & EBIT -33% YoY."
Israeli EV startup using in-wheel motors hits $580 million valuation - Electrek. What is required to bring down the price of electric vehicles are standard off-the-shelf Lithium batteries.
Trump wants 'movement' from China to avoid Dec. 15 tariffs - U.S. agriculture secretary - Reuters.
With US Economy In A "Good Place", Largest Truckload Carrier Files BK - David Stockman's Contra Corner.
Watching this AI-powered LEGO brick sorter is extremely satisfying - Popular Mechanics SA.
Monday 9 Dec 2019
USMCA trade deal is ‘within range,’ Pelosi says - Market Watch. The US trade deal with Canada and Mexico has still not been concluded: Wikipedia. Trump has achieved nothing. The US can only export more if it imports more, unless the US dollar is weaker, would would mean a lower standard of living.
On Twitter: Liz Ann Sonders @LizAnnSonders: "According to Professor Jay Ritter at the University of Florida, 81% of U.S. companies to list in 2018 did so with negative 12-month trailing earnings on the day they went public, the highest such figure since the “irrational exuberance” of the tech bubble. @SPGlobal" chart.
On Twitter: Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1: "Investors have pulled $135.5 billion from U.S. stock-focused mutual funds and ETFs so far this year, the biggest withdrawals on record: Refinitiv Lipper: https://t.co/RkPNmWTICX?amp=1" But companies are stilling buying back their own shares.
On Twitter: Daniel Lacalle @dlacalle_IA: "China FX reserves fall unexpectedly in November, well below the median consensus estimate. Remember that China's vast FX reserves are only equaled by the enormous shortage of US dollars of its economy. Charts via
@Schuldensuehner @DiMartinoBooth": chart, chart.
The Myth Of The “Great Cash Hoard” Of 2019 - RIA.
Amazon lawsuit blames Trump for loss of Pentagon cloud contract - Reuters. Making the Microsoft monopoly great again.
METALS-Copper scales 4-1/2-month peak on China demand optimism - Reuters. Isn't the Chinese economy supposed to be slowing down? Electrical vehicles should create a demand for copper.
Sunday 8 Dec 2019
U.S. banks' reluctance to lend cash may have caused repo shock: BIS - Reuters. Sounds familiar. Wasn't that the same reason for the Great Recession of 2009?
From 20 Oct 2018: This retirement expense has hit $100,000 annually — and it’s continuing to rise - CNBC.
North Korea says it has conducted a 'significant' test at a missile site - CNN.
On Twitter: Tulsi Gabbard @TulsiGabbard: "Why is Trump acting as the spokesperson for Saudi Arabia? It is a disgrace that the office of the presidency is being used for the interests of the theocratic extremist Saudi Arabian Kingdom, the #1 exporter of the radical Islamist ideology that fuels jihadists like al-Qaeda/ISIS".
Greece goes digital in crackdown on tax cheats - The Telegraph. Governments go to extremes to collect taxes, instead of just charging people directly for government services. Usually it is because government benefits are really a bribe to their supporters, and other tax payers must pay for it.
Saturday 7 Dec 2019
Forget buy and hold — here are 10 rules to help navigate this dicey market - Market Watch.
The David Einhorn Podcast: The Fed Is Monetizing Debt Again - Zero Hedge.
On Twitter: Charlie Bilello @charliebilello: "Macy's is the worst performing stock in the S&P 500 this year, down 46%. Other retailers on the list: Gap (-34%), L Brands (-27%), Kohl's (-26%), Nordstrom (-16%).": table. As inflation bites, consumers cut back on the least essentials.
Trump calls for World Bank to stop loaning to China - Reuters. Lending by these institutions is usually because a country is trying to keep up its currency, when it should actually be devalued due to the high rate of money creation.
The drawback to the unibody exoskeleton used by the Tesla cybertruck instead of a traditional vehicle built on top of a chassis, is that a strong roof structure is required, which limits visibility. From 30 Nov: Here's The Real Problem With Tesla's Cybertruck - Seeking Alpha.
The S&P 500 index is up by 25% so far this year, compared to 3.1% economic growth for the first three quarters. Shareholders have made a lot more money than the rest of the population. The wealth created by stock market gains must lead to inflation (more money chasing the same goods produced). Workers pay for it through wages that do not keep up with that inflation.
Ryan Reynolds Gets Standing Ovation as He Debuts First 'Free Guy' Trailer in Brazil - The Hollywood Reporter.
Friday 6 Dec 2019
Ron Paul Warns of a Gigantic Financial Bubble - The Advocate.
On Twitter: Lance Roberts @LanceRoberts: 'Hmmm- "More than 1/3 of the S&P 500 have posted a yoy decline in earnings in 2019. The last time this many companies posted contracting earnings was 2009, 2008 and 2002, all periods when the broader economy, and market, declined." ' - WSJ
Biden fears he would inherit recession from Trump - Market Watch.
Elon Musk wins in 'pedo guy' defamation trial - CNN. By taking legal action, the plaintiff drew 1000x more attention to it.
Jim Cramer: Let's Win the Trade War With China - Real Money. When you trade your expensive exports for a lot of cheap imports, then you are winning. The US has priced itself out of the market for many goods through import restrictions and subsidies. A problem can't be solved by doing more of what caused it in the first place. The reason the US has a trade deficit with China, is that China needs raw materials from other countries, and those countries use the money they make to buy US goods.
Jobs growth soars in November as payrolls surge by 266,000 - CNBC: "The end of the GM strike had a big effect, boosting employment in motor vehicles and parts by 41,300, part of an overall 54,000 gain in manufacturing". "Average hourly earnings rose by 3.1% from a year ago". MZM money supply grew 12.0% over a year. Something is blowing up. One can assume wage growth is much lower than the actual inflation rate, thus more jobs are created, but workers are becoming poorer.
The FRED chart below show the total debt per worker (nonfarm payrolls), adjusted for inflation (index=100 in 2015). The good news is that debt per worker has not increased since 2009 relative to inflation. The bad news is that the debt is now $482,000 per worker. Perhaps what has happened, is the debt growth has enriched the wealthy through asset appreciation, but workers have not shared in the wealth growth.
From 7 Dec 2018: Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump: "China talks are going very well!"
Uber says it received over 3,000 reports of sexual assault in U.S. in 2018 - Reuters. These are amateurs trying to provide a service that is better left to professionals. It is an indication that more people are being excluded from the wealthy formal economy, and have to find other ways to survive.
On Twitter: YUAN TALKS @YuanTalks: "#US President Trump is asking #China to buy $40 bn to $50 bn farm goods a year, significantly higher than $8.6 bn purchase last year. US also demand China publicly announce its purchasing plans and say they wouldn't depend on market conditions or China's trade obligations. (WSJ)" Will the US subsidize the exports to make it price competitive? It doesn't make sense.
On Twitter: Stare Decisis @MsResJudicata: "Barack Obama’s administration deported more than 3 million undocumented immigrants during his two terms, including 1.18 million in his first three years. In that equivalent amount of time, President Trump has deported fewer than 800,000."
Tesla Cybertruck With Fifth Wheel Camping Trailer Is Beyond Brilliant - InsideEVs. .
Thursday 5 Dec 2019
On Twitter: Spencer Schiff @SchiffSpencer: "According to ADP, the respective YoY growth rates in aggregate private employment and in "very small" businesses' payrolls slowed to nearly 9-year lows of 1.5% and 0.05% in November. The latter's recent decline, pictured below, is quite dramatic." chart. A number of charts suggest the US is already in a recession.
Shinzo Abe launches $121bn stimulus package for Japan - FT. The added money causes inflation, workers become poorer, and the economy weakens. Politicians keep trying the same policies (insanity - doing the same thing repeatedly, and expecting a different outcome).
Eurozone retail sales slump worse-than-forecast 0.6% in October - Market Watch.
Dimon’s View Of Economic Reality Is Still Delusional - Real Investment Advice.
Visualized: Ranking the Goods Most Traded Between the U.S. and China - Visual Capitalist.
NATO Names China As New Enemy, Alongside Russia - Zero Hedge. They should get donkeys and charge windmills.
In developed countries people spend 10% or more of their income on healthcare (relative to GDP = gross domestic income). In the US it is 17%. Presumably this is mostly older people, but still if you add up the healthcare costs over a lifetime, that is an expensive service, which includes some government burocracy. According to OECD Data in the US it was $10,586 per person in 2018, compared to $688 in China. Obviously the income is also much lower.
GM announces its own battery gigafactory with LG Chem, 30 GWh of capacity below $100/kWh - Electrek.
The Case Against Low-fat Milk Is Stronger Than Ever - Travel & Leisure.
Wednesday 4 Dec 2019
Trump would become a king if impeachment fails, scholar warns - Market Watch.
Peter Schiff: This House of Cards Will Come Crashing Down on Consumers - Schiff Gold.
On Twitter: Trevor Noren @trevornoren: "It’s a cruel world for stock pickers when barely 20% of equities beat the S&P 500...if you try to make your money by beating the market, this is about as miserable as it gets" https://bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-12-04/this-is-the-most-depressing-chart-ever-for-active-stock-managers.
German engineering orders fall 11% year-on-year in October - VDMA - Reuters. European Central Bank Quantitive Easing has flatten off in 2019.
On Twitter: Bloomberg Next China @next_china: "The U.S. and China are moving closer to agreeing on the amount of tariffs that would be rolled back in a phase-one trade deal despite tensions over Hong Kong and Xinjiang". They are only trying to return to what existed before the trade war started. Trump is backtracking and has achieved nothing.
Macron refuses to back down after Trump attack - CNN. Trump said they will return the Statue of Liberty, and negotiate a new one. Macron said they are not making a new one. Trump said they will keep the old one. A great new deal has been concluded.
On Twitter: Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump: "Great progress has been made by NATO over the last three years. Countries other than the U.S. have agreed to pay 130 Billion Dollars more per year, and by 2024, that number will be 400 Billion Dollars. NATO will be richer and stronger than ever before...." NATO will create a new enemy. Trump says it will be a great enemey.
Trump calls Trudeau ‘two-faced’ after video shows prime minister mocking him - NY Post.
On Twitter: Kara Goldin @karagoldin: "I have a friend who lives in Tahoe. Her home owners insurance cancelled because she lives in a “high risk fire area”. It’s on a main road leading into Squaw Valley across from the fire station. New insurance 5x. Can’t sell it because of cost of insurance. How is this ok?" Insurance companies only want to make money, not spend it. Build a fire proof house away from rivers and save insurance.
Tuesday 3 Dec 2019
Market Cap To GDP: An Updated Look At The Buffett Valuation Indicator - Tuesday, Dec. 3 - Talk Markets.
Fundamentally Speaking: Earning Season’s Good, Bad & Ugly - Talk Markets.
Appeals Court Hands Trump Loss, Rules Banks Must Turn Over Financial Records To House Democrats - Zero Hedge.
Trump: no deadline for China trade deal, might follow 2020 election - Reuters.
On Twitter: Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump: "Just landed in the United Kingdom, heading to London for NATO meetings tomorrow. Prior to landing I read the Republicans Report on the Impeachment Hoax. Great job! Radical Left has NO CASE. Read the Transcripts. Shouldn’t even be allowed. Can we go to Supreme Court to stop?" Congress makes the laws. The courts are only there to interpret the laws. One of the brain dead (referenced by Macron) people arriving for Nato meeting.
On Twitter: Good Morning Britain @GMB: " 'I am completely in favour of rehabilitation for regular prisoners and criminals... But I draw a line with Al-Qaeda and ISIS terrorists. If they're found guilty of terrorism trying to commit mass murder, they should not be coming out.' Do you agree with @piersmorgan?" From the same country that supported ANC terrorists.
Monday 2 Dec 2019
Ten trillion dollars of US corporate debt set off alarm bells - WSWS.
On Twitter: Charlie Bilello @charliebilello: "With 97% of companies reported, S&P 500 GAAP earnings down 6% over the past year, largest decline since Q4 2015. $SPX": chart.
Insurance pricing - Snippet.
Lucid unveils first images of EV factory as construction starts - Electrek.
On Twitter: Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump: "Brazil and Argentina have been presiding over a massive devaluation of their currencies. which is not good for our farmers. Therefore, effective immediately, I will restore the Tariffs on all Steel & Aluminum that is shipped into the U.S. from those countries. The Federal Reserve should likewise act so that countries, of which there are many, no longer take advantage of our strong dollar by further devaluing their currencies. This makes it very hard for our manufactures & farmers to fairly export their goods. Lower Rates & Loosen - Fed!" Such a tweet is followed by a long list of criticism.
The US dollar is strong because of import tariffs, and farm subsidies. Importing less also means the US will export less of the high value products. If other countries offer goods cheaper then the US should buy more. Imagine Trump running a business and telling his suppliers their products are too cheap.
On Twitter: Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump: "U.S. Markets are up as much as 21% since the announcement of Tariffs on 3/1/2018 - and the U.S. is taking in massive amounts of money (and giving some to our farmers, who have been targeted by China)!" US industries that depend on imports become unprofitable due to the higher costs, and the US public is paying for unprofitable farming. The stock markets are up due to low interest rates. Interest rates are low because the economy is dying.
Sunday 1 Dec 2019
On Twitter: Alvin Foo @alvinfoo: "Building a 30 floors hotel in 2 weeks! An amazing #Engineering & #construction feat! #china": video.
China Calling The Great Dealmaker's Bluff: Roll-Back Existing Tariffs Or No Phase 1 Fig Leaf - David Stockman's Contra Corner. This is similar to Trump's dealings with North Korea keeping sanctions, and doing nothing to resolve the problem. Trump wants China to import US goods, but want to keep restrictions on China.
On Twitter: ExtremeTech @ExtremeTech: "These 3D printed homes offer a sustainable future": video.
On Twitter: Jocelyn Anderson Photography @JocAPhotography: "The friendly Red-bellied Woodpecker shows up for a peanut! I haven’t seen him in a few months.": video.
Dalio & Tudor Jones Warn: "We Will Kill Each Other" If Our Broken Economic System Isn't Fixed - Talk Markets. "It's literally the most conducive environment - certainly in the short run - for economic growth and strength that I've ever seen." Real economic growth is very small. It is mostly inflation that pushes norminal economic growth higher. "... much of the source of inequality lies in the public education system". That is only third after the inflation created by government, and government allowing monopolies and big businesses that keep competition out.
Growing inequality threatens mining - Mining.
Automakers Offer Record Incentives As Trillion Dollar Auto Bubble Bursts - Zero Hedge.
5 Screaming Hot Strong Buy Stocks - Talk Markets.
Are IPOs A Warning Sign? - Talk Markets.
Southeast France on red alert again as 'dangerous' floods and heavy rainfall storm in - The Local.
Tesla’s Elon Musk explains Cybertruck’s adaptive air suspension after seeing a Ford F-350 get mangled - Teslarati. Ford cars were poor quality 40 years ago. Has it improved?
Good news from 28 Dec 2018: China allows first-ever U.S. rice imports ahead of trade talks - Reuters.
Bad news from 27 Aug 2019: China’s Rice Imports by Country - World's Top Exports. United States imports make up 0.0002% of total Chinese imports, down -98.3%. The US is just not exporting products at a price China wants.
From 25 Nov 2019: China's rare earth magnet exports to U.S. in October jump 21.7% month-on-month - Reuters.
From 2 Dec 2017: Histomap: Visualizing the 4,000 Year History of Global Power - Visual Capitalist.
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